Harborough: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Harborough: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Neil O'Brien  (CON)
County/Area: Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 73,071
Turnout: 76.2%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON27,46249.3%
LAB17,58331.6%
LIB8,15414.6%
UKIP1,2842.3%
Green1,1832.1%
CON Majority9,87917.7%

See overview of other seats in East Midlands.

Harborough : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Harborough constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right3° Right
National Position6° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %50%59%52%
British Identity23%27%29%
Good Health44%45%48%
UK Born96%91%88%
Good Education29%36%39%
Good Job41%48%51%
High SEC40%47%51%
Average Age50.249.148.5
ABC1 Class40%50%53%

Harborough ranks #381 for "Leave", #122 for "Right" and #221 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Harborough: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Harborough been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Harborough

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Harborough

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Harborough, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: HarboroughTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HarboroughBosworth1,982Daventry and Lutterworth1,220136781170001,452
HarboroughFleckney3,829Daventry and Lutterworth1,90561321939280002,804
HarboroughGlen3,398Harborough2,0372711552240002,489
HarboroughKibworth5,273Harborough2,72576931516380003,863
HarboroughLubenham2,321Daventry and Lutterworth1,144235128181120001,700
HarboroughMarket Harborough-Great Bowden and Arden5,709Harborough1,9861,0655353981960004,180
HarboroughMarket Harborough-Little Bowden3,972Harborough1,795684309111100002,909
HarboroughMarket Harborough-Logan3,217Harborough1,363577285191120002,356
HarboroughMarket Harborough-Welland5,000Harborough1,6641,127550572640003,662
Oadby and WigstonOadby Brocks Hill3,105Harborough98285333681220002,274
Oadby and WigstonOadby Grange5,211Harborough2,0951,3333466360003,816
Oadby and WigstonOadby St Peter's3,290Harborough953955346411140002,409
Oadby and WigstonOadby Uplands3,439Harborough1,0671,111325780002,518
Oadby and WigstonOadby Woodlands3,620Harborough1,394884362640002,650
Oadby and WigstonSouth Wigston5,851Harborough1,7561,666655167410004,285
Oadby and WigstonWigston All Saints4,621Harborough1,4281,257583102160003,386
Oadby and WigstonWigston Fields5,082Harborough1,3261,602671113110003,723
Oadby and WigstonWigston Meadowcourt4,602Harborough1,6181,22047048150003,371
Oadby and WigstonWigston St Wolstan's5,123Harborough1,6771,34961766430003,752
 Total78,645 30,13517,7077,2851,3611,11100057,599

The full details of these calculations are given on the Harborough seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Rutland and Melton

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Rutland and Melton, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Rutland and MeltonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HarboroughBillesdon1,436Rutland and Melton92965315230001,053
HarboroughNevill1,799Rutland and Melton9571551652400001,319
HarboroughThurnby and Houghton5,482Harborough1,5968601,2941441290004,023
HarboroughTilton1,585Rutland and Melton836912136160001,162
MeltonAsfordby2,552Rutland and Melton1,13343588182340001,872
MeltonBottesford2,795Rutland and Melton1,7002574237160002,052
MeltonCroxton Kerrial1,378Rutland and Melton8391083317140001,011
MeltonFrisby-on-the-Wreake1,373Rutland and Melton8977225760001,007
MeltonGaddesby1,336Rutland and Melton8459123156000980
MeltonLong Clawson and Stathern3,273Rutland and Melton1,9862967518270002,402
MeltonMelton Craven2,742Rutland and Melton1,034635103158820002,012
MeltonMelton Dorian4,180Rutland and Melton1,6721,1568892590003,067
MeltonMelton Egerton3,107Rutland and Melton1,0141,0529251720002,281
MeltonMelton Newport3,947Rutland and Melton1,803763117174380002,895
MeltonMelton Sysonby4,321Rutland and Melton1,8061,003101173870003,170
MeltonMelton Warwick2,801Rutland and Melton1,02278562113730002,055
MeltonOld Dalby1,535Rutland and Melton987802423120001,126
MeltonSomerby1,361Rutland and Melton87360261327000999
MeltonWaltham-on-the-Wolds1,247Rutland and Melton482325301661000914
MeltonWymondham1,175Rutland and Melton7536316922000863
RutlandBraunston and Belton1,004Rutland and Melton6484632110000737
RutlandCottesmore2,053Rutland and Melton1,15213860121360001,507
RutlandExton1,091Rutland and Melton498147853238000800
RutlandGreetham1,613Rutland and Melton1,00769643680001,184
RutlandKetton2,188Rutland and Melton1,14222216055260001,605
RutlandLangham1,053Rutland and Melton4521621201721000772
RutlandLyddington991Rutland and Melton6227913211000727
RutlandMartinsthorpe876Rutland and Melton42016726228000643
RutlandNormanton2,666Rutland and Melton1,166274357107530001,957
RutlandOakham North East2,396Rutland and Melton598796169251700001,758
RutlandOakham North West2,517Rutland and Melton769659239591210001,847
RutlandOakham South East1,989Rutland and Melton8973411518630001,460
RutlandOakham South West1,746Rutland and Melton7213885833810001,281
RutlandRyhall and Casterton2,189Rutland and Melton1,08134510119600001,606
RutlandUppingham3,680Rutland and Melton1,456787197961640002,700
RutlandWhissendine987Rutland and Melton38094229120000724
 Total78,464 36,17313,0664,7091,8691,75400057,571

The full details of these calculations are given on the Rutland and Melton seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Harborough

The new seat of Harborough is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Harborough
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HarboroughGlen3,437Harborough2,0372711552240002,489
HarboroughKibworth5,501Harborough2,72576931516380003,863
HarboroughMarket Harborough-Great Bowden and Arden5,047Harborough1,9861,0655353981960004,180
HarboroughMarket Harborough-Little Bowden4,114Harborough1,795684309111100002,909
HarboroughMarket Harborough-Logan3,120Harborough1,363577285191120002,356
HarboroughMarket Harborough-Welland5,064Harborough1,6641,127550572640003,662
HarboroughThurnby and Houghton5,168Rutland and Melton1,5968601,2941441290004,023
Oadby and WigstonOadby Brocks Hill3,047Harborough98285333681220002,274
Oadby and WigstonOadby Grange4,267Harborough2,0951,3333466360003,816
Oadby and WigstonOadby St Peter's3,186Harborough953955346411140002,409
Oadby and WigstonOadby Uplands3,247Harborough1,0671,111325780002,518
Oadby and WigstonOadby Woodlands3,425Harborough1,394884362640002,650
Oadby and WigstonSouth Wigston5,644Harborough1,7561,666655167410004,285
Oadby and WigstonWigston All Saints4,584Harborough1,4281,257583102160003,386
Oadby and WigstonWigston Fields4,817Harborough1,3261,602671113110003,723
Oadby and WigstonWigston Meadowcourt4,475Harborough1,6181,22047048150003,371
Oadby and WigstonWigston St Wolstan's4,928Harborough1,6771,34961766430003,752
 Total73,071 27,46217,5838,1541,2841,18300055,666

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Harborough.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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