Harlow: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Harlow: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Robert Halfon  (CON)
County/Area: Essex (Anglia)
Electorate: 71,459
Turnout: 68.0%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON26,87855.3%
LAB17,71836.4%
UKIP1,9904.1%
LIB1,1892.4%
Green8421.7%
OTH20.0%
CON Majority9,16018.8%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Harlow : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Harlow constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right8° Right
National Position16° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %67%57%52%
British Identity31%27%29%
Good Health54%47%48%
UK Born83%89%88%
Good Education56%37%39%
Good Job64%53%51%
High SEC65%53%51%
Average Age46.849.448.5
ABC1 Class70%55%53%

Harlow ranks #42 for "Leave", #111 for "Right" and #27 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Harlow: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Harlow been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Harlow

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Brentwood and Ongar

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Brentwood and Ongar, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Brentwood and OngarTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BrentwoodBrentwood North5,177Brentwood and Ongar1,8651,0055661109700133,656
BrentwoodBrentwood South4,668Brentwood and Ongar1,7081,187242104530023,296
BrentwoodBrentwood West5,706Brentwood and Ongar2,49096249320600054,030
BrentwoodBrizes and Doddinghurst4,766Brentwood and Ongar2,384551223164430013,366
BrentwoodHerongate, Ingrave and West Horndon2,986Brentwood and Ongar1,4904276697210082,109
BrentwoodHutton Central3,070Brentwood and Ongar1,55739316126230092,169
BrentwoodHutton East2,961Brentwood and Ongar1,37548112494160012,091
BrentwoodHutton North3,414Brentwood and Ongar1,598597154242600112,410
BrentwoodHutton South3,109Brentwood and Ongar1,60142774661600122,196
BrentwoodIngatestone, Fryerning and Mountnessing4,805Brentwood and Ongar2,463579210108320023,394
BrentwoodPilgrims Hatch4,796Brentwood and Ongar1,767793598179480023,387
BrentwoodShenfield4,377Brentwood and Ongar2,24541834553240063,091
BrentwoodSouth Weald1,554Brentwood and Ongar79020220502400101,096
BrentwoodTipps Cross3,087Brentwood and Ongar1,5894007594140082,180
BrentwoodWarley4,809Brentwood and Ongar2,04278246171400013,397
Epping ForestChipping Ongar, Greensted and Marden Ash3,260Brentwood and Ongar1,5192722431491180012,302
Epping ForestHastingwood, Matching and Sheering Village169Harlow8030423001120
Epping ForestHigh Ongar, Willingale and The Rodings1,817Brentwood and Ongar9871693932500061,283
Epping ForestLambourne1,620Brentwood and Ongar895131169380011,144
Epping ForestMoreton and Fyfield1,561Harlow8511096226550001,103
Epping ForestNorth Weald Bassett3,605Harlow1,7143791531751250012,547
Epping ForestPassingford1,833Brentwood and Ongar1,0781136031100021,294
Epping ForestShelley1,764Brentwood and Ongar723403377770001,247
 Total74,914 34,81110,8104,4261,8459130010352,908

The full details of these calculations are given on the Brentwood and Ongar seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Harlow

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Harlow, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: HarlowTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Epping ForestHastingwood, Matching and Sheering Village1,590Harlow75425717340001,053
Epping ForestLower Nazeing2,841Harlow1,47638451440001,883
Epping ForestLower Sheering1,474Harlow6393071929000976
Epping ForestRoydon1,620Harlow85319947100001,073
HarlowBush Fair5,670Harlow1,7351,638129206470003,755
HarlowChurch Langley6,527Harlow2,9511,12781131350004,325
HarlowGreat Parndon4,804Harlow1,8201,16114155330003,183
HarlowHarlow Common5,416Harlow1,8101,390119206630003,588
HarlowLittle Parndon and Hare Street5,845Harlow1,5842,02990110590003,872
HarlowMark Hall5,273Harlow1,5701,559134152780003,493
HarlowNetteswell5,456Harlow1,6731,641100156440003,614
HarlowOld Harlow5,113Harlow2,19091911894660003,387
HarlowStaple Tye5,307Harlow1,7151,49080185460003,516
HarlowSumners and Kingsmoor5,226Harlow1,8431,33051182570003,463
HarlowToddbrook5,535Harlow1,6201,76925180740003,668
 Total67,697 24,23317,2009701,78765900044,849

The full details of these calculations are given on the Harlow seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Harlow

The new seat of Harlow is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Harlow
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Epping ForestHastingwood, Matching and Sheering Village181Brentwood and Ongar8028014000113
Epping ForestHastingwood, Matching and Sheering Village1,702Harlow75425958330011,060
Epping ForestLower Nazeing3,245Harlow1,47638451440001,883
Epping ForestLower Sheering1,699Harlow6393071929000976
Epping ForestMoreton and Fyfield1,661Brentwood and Ongar8511096226550001,103
Epping ForestNorth Weald Bassett3,659Brentwood and Ongar1,7143791531751250012,547
Epping ForestRoydon1,780Harlow85319947100001,073
HarlowBush Fair5,350Harlow1,7351,638129206470003,755
HarlowChurch Langley6,067Harlow2,9511,12781131350004,325
HarlowGreat Parndon4,899Harlow1,8201,16114155330003,183
HarlowHarlow Common5,299Harlow1,8101,390119206630003,588
HarlowLittle Parndon and Hare Street5,629Harlow1,5842,02990110590003,872
HarlowMark Hall4,879Harlow1,5701,559134152780003,493
HarlowNetteswell5,089Harlow1,6731,641100156440003,614
HarlowOld Harlow5,661Harlow2,19091911894660003,387
HarlowStaple Tye4,600Harlow1,7151,49080185460003,516
HarlowSumners and Kingsmoor4,974Harlow1,8431,33051182570003,463
HarlowToddbrook5,085Harlow1,6201,76925180740003,668
 Total71,459 26,87817,7181,1891,99084200248,619

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Harlow.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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