Harrogate and Knaresborough: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Harrogate and Knaresborough: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Andrew Jones  (CON)
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate: 74,319
Turnout: 76.4%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON31,47955.5%
LIB13,31023.5%
LAB11,39620.1%
OTH5611.0%
CON Majority18,16932.0%

See overview of other seats in Yorks/Humber.

Harrogate and Knaresborough : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Harrogate and Knaresborough constituency, the 'Yorks/Humber' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatYorks/HumberAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position12° Right3° Left
National Position1° Nat6° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %46%58%52%
British Identity44%28%29%
Good Health51%46%48%
UK Born61%92%88%
Good Education46%36%39%
Good Job61%47%51%
High SEC48%46%51%
Average Age40.748.548.5
ABC1 Class55%49%53%

Harrogate and Knaresborough ranks #445 for "Leave", #73 for "Right" and #329 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Harrogate and Knaresborough: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Harrogate and Knaresborough been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Harrogate and Knaresborough

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Harrogate and Knaresborough

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Harrogate and Knaresborough, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Harrogate and KnaresboroughTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HarrogateBilton4,113Harrogate and Knaresborough1,4936088850000353,021
HarrogateBoroughbridge2,373Harrogate and Knaresborough1,2013981330000111,743
HarrogateClaro2,389Harrogate and Knaresborough1,234203310000071,754
HarrogateGranby4,949Harrogate and Knaresborough1,6059521,0420000363,635
HarrogateHarlow Moor4,331Harrogate and Knaresborough1,9435766420000203,181
HarrogateHigh Harrogate4,770Harrogate and Knaresborough1,8647338440000633,504
HarrogateHookstone4,129Harrogate and Knaresborough1,5164979890000293,031
HarrogateKillinghall2,514Harrogate and Knaresborough1,3112662550000151,847
HarrogateKnaresborough East3,822Harrogate and Knaresborough1,3856707160000352,806
HarrogateKnaresborough King James3,914Harrogate and Knaresborough1,7244436750000322,874
HarrogateKnaresborough Scriven Park4,237Harrogate and Knaresborough1,7786776250000323,112
HarrogateLow Harrogate4,654Harrogate and Knaresborough1,9376627940000263,419
HarrogateNew Park4,225Harrogate and Knaresborough1,4647348610000433,102
HarrogatePannal4,221Harrogate and Knaresborough2,0694585500000223,099
HarrogateRossett4,869Harrogate and Knaresborough2,3694647130000303,576
HarrogateSaltergate4,479Harrogate and Knaresborough1,8207277090000343,290
HarrogateStarbeck4,758Harrogate and Knaresborough1,5469309780000413,495
HarrogateStray4,441Harrogate and Knaresborough1,9225178110000123,262
HarrogateWoodfield4,077Harrogate and Knaresborough1,2988817780000382,995
 Total77,265 31,47911,39613,310000056156,746

The full details of these calculations are given on the Harrogate and Knaresborough seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Harrogate and Knaresborough

The new seat of Harrogate and Knaresborough is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Harrogate and Knaresborough
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HarrogateBilton4,219Harrogate and Knaresborough1,4936088850000353,021
HarrogateBoroughbridge2,366Harrogate and Knaresborough1,2013981330000111,743
HarrogateClaro2,602Harrogate and Knaresborough1,234203310000071,754
HarrogateGranby4,419Harrogate and Knaresborough1,6059521,0420000363,635
HarrogateHarlow Moor3,991Harrogate and Knaresborough1,9435766420000203,181
HarrogateHigh Harrogate4,241Harrogate and Knaresborough1,8647338440000633,504
HarrogateHookstone4,407Harrogate and Knaresborough1,5164979890000293,031
HarrogateKillinghall2,315Harrogate and Knaresborough1,3112662550000151,847
HarrogateKnaresborough East3,889Harrogate and Knaresborough1,3856707160000352,806
HarrogateKnaresborough King James4,044Harrogate and Knaresborough1,7244436750000322,874
HarrogateKnaresborough Scriven Park4,082Harrogate and Knaresborough1,7786776250000323,112
HarrogateLow Harrogate4,011Harrogate and Knaresborough1,9376627940000263,419
HarrogateNew Park3,954Harrogate and Knaresborough1,4647348610000433,102
HarrogatePannal4,351Harrogate and Knaresborough2,0694585500000223,099
HarrogateRossett4,753Harrogate and Knaresborough2,3694647130000303,576
HarrogateSaltergate4,108Harrogate and Knaresborough1,8207277090000343,290
HarrogateStarbeck4,456Harrogate and Knaresborough1,5469309780000413,495
HarrogateStray4,092Harrogate and Knaresborough1,9225178110000123,262
HarrogateWoodfield4,019Harrogate and Knaresborough1,2988817780000382,995
 Total74,319 31,47911,39613,310000056156,746

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Harrogate and Knaresborough.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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