Harwich and Clacton: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Harwich and Clacton: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Giles Watling  (CON)
County/Area: Essex (Anglia)
Electorate: 77,200
Turnout: 67.4%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON29,93657.6%
LAB15,66330.1%
UKIP3,9297.6%
LIB9951.9%
Green6711.3%
OTH4330.8%
MIN3790.7%
CON Majority14,27327.4%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Harwich and Clacton : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Harwich and Clacton constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right8° Right
National Position29° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %75%57%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health50%47%48%
UK Born97%89%88%
Good Education31%37%39%
Good Job48%53%51%
High SEC53%53%51%
Average Age49.349.448.5
ABC1 Class47%55%53%

Harwich and Clacton ranks #3 for "Leave", #108 for "Right" and #1 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Harwich and Clacton: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Harwich and Clacton been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Harwich and Clacton

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Clacton

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Clacton, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: ClactonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
TendringAlton Park3,863Harwich and Clacton1,1879266919354017172,463
TendringBeaumont and Thorpe1,854Harwich and Clacton890208436270971,181
TendringBockings Elm3,756Harwich and Clacton1,408680412261905172,396
TendringBurrsville1,618Harwich and Clacton6062631398450241,031
TendringFrinton3,247Harwich and Clacton1,591290446228036202,071
TendringGolf Green3,895Harwich and Clacton1,202898263113302112,483
TendringHamford3,113Harwich and Clacton1,3613863311734025281,984
TendringHaven1,656Harwich and Clacton687204166712032371,055
TendringHolland and Kirby3,852Harwich and Clacton1,7114652714628039382,454
TendringHomelands1,542Harwich and Clacton6561452512715086982
TendringLittle Clacton and Weeley3,717Essex North East1,6114262719747025362,369
TendringPeter Bruff3,533Harwich and Clacton1,3305741271831909102,252
TendringPier3,943Harwich and Clacton1,4028284317039014162,512
TendringRush Green3,913Harwich and Clacton1,2899112921725013102,494
TendringSt Bartholomews3,571Harwich and Clacton1,4884355512339062742,276
TendringSt James3,407Harwich and Clacton1,4075153715817022152,171
TendringSt Johns3,747Harwich and Clacton1,3856622719397010142,388
TendringSt Marys4,150Harwich and Clacton1,4288317725721018122,644
TendringSt Osyth and Point Clear3,489Essex North East1,3605714411040043562,224
TendringSt Pauls3,851Harwich and Clacton1,6914364716832038412,453
TendringWalton3,547Harwich and Clacton1,3425507719747018292,260
 Total69,264 27,03211,2048883,356718044749844,143

The full details of these calculations are given on the Clacton seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Harwich and North Essex

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Harwich and North Essex, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Harwich and North EssexTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ColchesterDedham and Langham2,300Essex North East1,2072781273300041,649
ColchesterEast Donyland2,080Colchester599751839470031,492
ColchesterFordham and Stour4,163Essex North East2,13761714911660072,987
ColchesterGreat Tey2,103Essex North East1,1072508736260021,508
ColchesterPyefleet2,029Essex North East1,0193065912590011,456
ColchesterWest Bergholt and Eight Ash Green3,973Essex North East1,85763220893540052,849
ColchesterWest Mersea5,615Essex North East2,7637621722231010074,028
ColchesterWivenhoe Cross3,645Essex North East9511,02348262960002,614
ColchesterWivenhoe Quay4,194Essex North East1,3711,17929211590073,009
TendringAlresford1,573Essex North East5862402722160031,128
TendringArdleigh and Little Bromley1,781Essex North East94230514580041,278
TendringBradfield, Wrabness and Wix1,742Essex North East81129126104170011,250
TendringBrightlingsea6,314Essex North East2,7591,25821212711200624,530
TendringGreat and Little Oakley1,684Harwich and Clacton7013762689300131,208
TendringGreat Bentley1,751Essex North East8332451482440021,256
TendringHarwich East2,091Harwich and Clacton578817138460021,500
TendringHarwich East Central3,963Harwich and Clacton1,2791,3005919480022,842
TendringHarwich West3,891Harwich and Clacton1,3621,1102928250032,791
TendringHarwich West Central3,871Harwich and Clacton1,3411,3073183100052,777
TendringLawford3,380Essex North East1,4827737823670022,425
TendringManningtree, Mistley, Little Bentley and Tendring3,612Essex North East1,76762445181320042,590
TendringRamsey and Parkeston1,866Harwich and Clacton6145462014880021,338
TendringThorrington, Frating, Elmstead and Great Bromley3,674Essex North East1,85357415534180012,635
 Total71,295 29,91915,5642,7871,6861,0420014251,140

The full details of these calculations are given on the Harwich and North Essex seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Harwich and Clacton

The new seat of Harwich and Clacton is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Harwich and Clacton
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
TendringAlton Park3,420Clacton1,1879266919354017172,463
TendringBeaumont and Thorpe1,782Clacton890208436270971,181
TendringBockings Elm4,036Clacton1,408680412261905172,396
TendringBurrsville1,782Clacton6062631398450241,031
TendringFrinton3,375Clacton1,591290446228036202,071
TendringGolf Green3,990Clacton1,202898263113302112,483
TendringGreat and Little Oakley1,655Harwich and North Essex7013762689300131,208
TendringHamford3,259Clacton1,3613863311734025281,984
TendringHarwich East1,779Harwich and North Essex578817138460021,500
TendringHarwich East Central3,656Harwich and North Essex1,2791,3005919480022,842
TendringHarwich West3,902Harwich and North Essex1,3621,1102928250032,791
TendringHarwich West Central3,792Harwich and North Essex1,3411,3073183100052,777
TendringHaven1,796Clacton687204166712032371,055
TendringHolland and Kirby3,809Clacton1,7114652714628039382,454
TendringHomelands1,706Clacton6561452512715086982
TendringPeter Bruff3,238Clacton1,3305741271831909102,252
TendringPier3,326Clacton1,4028284317039014162,512
TendringRamsey and Parkeston1,677Harwich and North Essex6145462014880021,338
TendringRush Green3,428Clacton1,2899112921725013102,494
TendringSt Bartholomews3,939Clacton1,4884355512339062742,276
TendringSt James3,325Clacton1,4075153715817022152,171
TendringSt Johns3,814Clacton1,3856622719397010142,388
TendringSt Marys3,614Clacton1,4288317725721018122,644
TendringSt Pauls3,761Clacton1,6914364716832038412,453
TendringWalton3,339Clacton1,3425507719747018292,260
 Total77,200 29,93615,6639953,929671037943352,006

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Harwich and Clacton.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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