High Peak: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

High Peak: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Ruth George  (LAB)
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 71,130
Turnout: 75.7%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB26,75249.7%
CON24,43345.4%
LIB2,6675.0%
LAB Majority2,3194.3%

See overview of other seats in East Midlands.

High Peak : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new High Peak constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerLABCONCON
Economic Position3° Right
National Position3° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %51%59%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health40%45%48%
UK Born92%91%88%
Good Education34%36%39%
Good Job47%48%51%
High SEC47%47%51%
Average Age50.549.148.5
ABC1 Class47%50%53%

High Peak ranks #379 for "Leave", #322 for "Right" and #292 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

High Peak: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for High Peak been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of High Peak

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: High Peak

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of High Peak, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: High PeakTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
High PeakBarms1,516High Peak45959362000001,114
High PeakBlackbrook3,264High Peak1,196850354000002,400
High PeakBurbage1,674High Peak70150920000001,230
High PeakBuxton Central3,375High Peak1,1281,27380000002,481
High PeakChapel East1,847High Peak692564101000001,357
High PeakChapel West3,253High Peak1,2411,05596000002,392
High PeakCorbar3,104High Peak1,30995122000002,282
High PeakCote Heath3,182High Peak1,1551,13747000002,339
High PeakDinting1,597High Peak68347120000001,174
High PeakGamesley2,041High Peak3581,1358000001,501
High PeakHadfield North1,794High Peak44084236000001,318
High PeakHadfield South3,630High Peak1,1891,43049000002,668
High PeakHayfield1,655High Peak582521114000001,217
High PeakHope Valley3,106High Peak1,357779148000002,284
High PeakHoward Town3,519High Peak7581,76070000002,588
High PeakLimestone Peak1,796High Peak72855835000001,321
High PeakNew Mills East3,220High Peak6611,543164000002,368
High PeakNew Mills West3,376High Peak1,1111,084288000002,483
High PeakOld Glossop3,680High Peak1,3971,26444000002,705
High PeakPadfield1,926High Peak60478428000001,416
High PeakSett1,584High Peak592472101000001,165
High PeakSimmondley3,582High Peak1,3971,107130000002,634
High PeakSt John's1,473High Peak61737689000001,082
High PeakStone Bench3,718High Peak7881,88362000002,733
High PeakTemple1,700High Peak72647350000001,249
High PeakTintwistle1,633High Peak4577377000001,201
High PeakWhaley Bridge5,193High Peak1,6431,744430000003,817
High PeakWhitfield1,813High Peak46485712000001,333
 Total73,251 24,43326,7522,6670000053,852

The full details of these calculations are given on the High Peak seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: High Peak

The new seat of High Peak is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: High Peak
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
High PeakBarms1,380High Peak45959362000001,114
High PeakBlackbrook3,127High Peak1,196850354000002,400
High PeakBurbage1,594High Peak70150920000001,230
High PeakBuxton Central2,949High Peak1,1281,27380000002,481
High PeakChapel East1,744High Peak692564101000001,357
High PeakChapel West3,472High Peak1,2411,05596000002,392
High PeakCorbar3,203High Peak1,30995122000002,282
High PeakCote Heath3,181High Peak1,1551,13747000002,339
High PeakDinting1,644High Peak68347120000001,174
High PeakGamesley1,674High Peak3581,1358000001,501
High PeakHadfield North1,736High Peak44084236000001,318
High PeakHadfield South3,399High Peak1,1891,43049000002,668
High PeakHayfield1,625High Peak582521114000001,217
High PeakHope Valley3,183High Peak1,357779148000002,284
High PeakHoward Town3,408High Peak7581,76070000002,588
High PeakLimestone Peak1,675High Peak72855835000001,321
High PeakNew Mills East3,034High Peak6611,543164000002,368
High PeakNew Mills West3,415High Peak1,1111,084288000002,483
High PeakOld Glossop3,689High Peak1,3971,26444000002,705
High PeakPadfield1,814High Peak60478428000001,416
High PeakSett1,654High Peak592472101000001,165
High PeakSimmondley3,500High Peak1,3971,107130000002,634
High PeakSt John's1,488High Peak61737689000001,082
High PeakStone Bench3,157High Peak7881,88362000002,733
High PeakTemple1,801High Peak72647350000001,249
High PeakTintwistle1,627High Peak4577377000001,201
High PeakWhaley Bridge5,217High Peak1,6431,744430000003,817
High PeakWhitfield1,740High Peak46485712000001,333
 Total71,130 24,43326,7522,6670000053,852

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of High Peak.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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