Highland South: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Highland South: Overview

 Projection: SNP seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Drew Hendry  (SNP)
County/Area: Highland (Scotland)
Electorate: 78,120
Turnout: 71.7%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
SNP22,34639.9%
CON16,09728.7%
LAB8,69315.5%
LIB8,19114.6%
OTH7131.3%
SNP Majority6,24911.2%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.

Highland South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Highland South constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatScotlandAll GB
Party WinnerSNPSNPCON
Economic Position13° Left14° Left
National Position17° Int17° Int1° Int
EU Leave %41%38%52%
British Identity39%27%29%
Good Health47%52%48%
UK Born61%93%88%
Good Education33%36%39%
Good Job43%49%51%
High SEC41%55%51%
Average Age43.548.748.5
ABC1 Class46%50%53%

Highland South ranks #501 for "Leave", #528 for "Right" and #506 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Highland South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Highland South been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Highland South

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HighlandAird and Loch Ness6,291Highland North;
Highland South
1,633255668001,7010664,323
HighlandBadenoch and Strathspey10,295Highland South2,421746999002,8270817,074
HighlandCaol and Mallaig32 10110090122
HighlandCulloden and Ardersier8,854Highland South1,878989706002,4270826,082
HighlandInverness Central10,639Highland South1,9391,862389003,0350857,310
HighlandInverness Millburn6,517Highland South1,1171,355357001,6240264,479
HighlandInverness Ness-Side8,905Highland South1,8771,020930002,2240676,118
HighlandInverness South9,827Highland South1,9978071,124002,7610646,753
HighlandInverness West6,412Highland South1,076740721001,8100594,406
HighlandNairn9,072Moray and Nairn2,170777583002,6240806,234
 Total76,844 16,1188,5526,4780021,042061152,801

The full details of these calculations are given on the Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ross Skye and Lochaber

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ross Skye and Lochaber, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ross Skye and LochaberTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HighlandAird and Loch Ness2,497Highland North;
Highland South
474154382007500301,790
HighlandBlack Isle8,124Highland North1,7616161,310002,0410975,825
HighlandCaol and Mallaig6,879Argyll, Bute and Lochaber;
Highland South
1,444570625002,18001124,931
HighlandDingwall and Seaforth9,595Highland North1,4181,2071,473002,67301096,880
HighlandEilean a' Cho8,055Highland South1,3435621,433002,33101055,774
HighlandFort William and Ardnamurchan8,857Argyll, Bute and Lochaber1,4461,222817002,75701076,349
HighlandWester Ross, Strathpeffer and Lochalsh9,631Highland North;
Highland South
1,6753632,002002,74701166,903
 Total53,638 9,5614,6948,0420015,479067638,452

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ross Skye and Lochaber seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Highland South

The new seat of Highland South is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Highland South
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HighlandAird and Loch Ness4,075Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey938182467001,0910432,721
HighlandAird and Loch Ness1,618Ross Skye and Lochaber37272186004330171,080
HighlandBadenoch and Strathspey9,852Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey2,421746999002,8270817,074
HighlandCaol and Mallaig2,875Ross Skye and Lochaber631248271009490492,148
HighlandCulloden and Ardersier8,554Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey1,878989706002,4270826,082
HighlandEilean a' Cho8,056Ross Skye and Lochaber1,3435621,433002,33101055,774
HighlandInverness Central8,860Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey1,9391,862389003,0350857,310
HighlandInverness Millburn5,956Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey1,1171,355357001,6240264,479
HighlandInverness Ness-Side8,526Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey1,8771,020930002,2240676,118
HighlandInverness South10,240Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey1,9978071,124002,7610646,753
HighlandInverness West6,650Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey1,076740721001,8100594,406
HighlandWester Ross, Strathpeffer and Lochalsh2,858Ross Skye and Lochaber508110607008330352,093
 Total78,120 16,0978,6938,1900022,345071356,038

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Highland South.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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