Houghton and Seaham: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Houghton and Seaham: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Bridget Phillipson  (LAB)
County/Area: Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate: 75,771
Turnout: 60.9%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB27,55259.7%
CON13,26028.7%
UKIP2,7335.9%
LIB9242.0%
Green7521.6%
MIN5091.1%
OTH4431.0%
LAB Majority14,29231.0%

See overview of other seats in North East.

Houghton and Seaham : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Houghton and Seaham constituency, the 'North East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth EastAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position13° Left8° Left
National Position6° Nat4° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %61%58%52%
British Identity29%26%29%
Good Health49%44%48%
UK Born92%95%88%
Good Education43%35%39%
Good Job58%46%51%
High SEC60%44%51%
Average Age50.549.048.5
ABC1 Class61%47%53%

Houghton and Seaham ranks #114 for "Leave", #526 for "Right" and #217 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Houghton and Seaham: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Houghton and Seaham been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Houghton and Seaham

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Easington

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Easington, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: EasingtonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DurhamBlackhalls5,228Hartlepool7621,944378814020303,048
DurhamDawdon6,248Houghton and Seaham8252,3585311441025003,641
DurhamDeneside5,534Houghton and Seaham5032,392281378015903,227
DurhamEasington5,801Durham, City of, and Easington7012,2352269165018903,381
DurhamHorden6,097Durham, City of, and Easington6292,571426423022503,554
DurhamMurton6,013Durham, City of, and Easington3882,4931547213012503,506
DurhamPassfield3,381Durham, City of, and Easington811870363011021401,972
DurhamPeterlee East5,450Durham, City of, and Easington7362,032388445024303,178
DurhamPeterlee West6,364Durham, City of, and Easington1,0842,103677344033903,710
DurhamSeaham5,317Houghton and Seaham8061,6396147420010003,100
DurhamShotton and South Hetton6,644Durham, City of, and Easington9942,3866110225030303,871
DurhamTrimdon and Thornley306Durham, City of, and Easington211290211060178
 Total62,383 8,26023,1524601,72841002,356036,366

The full details of these calculations are given on the Easington seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Houghton and Sunderland South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Houghton and Sunderland South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Houghton and Sunderland SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SunderlandCopt Hill8,698Houghton and Seaham1,6973,09248187110001615,295
SunderlandDoxford7,429Houghton and Seaham1,4792,6244422812000284,523
SunderlandHetton8,634Houghton and Seaham1,3873,1881674513600285,257
SunderlandHoughton8,900Houghton and Seaham1,5423,30017722344001325,418
SunderlandSandhill8,657Washington and Sunderland West1,1993,5021253694100355,271
SunderlandShiney Row9,943Houghton and Seaham1,9113,49713334414100286,054
SunderlandSilksworth8,427Houghton and Seaham1,4843,05410131913800355,131
SunderlandSt Chad's7,435Houghton and Seaham1,6262,4081122569400314,527
 Total68,123 12,32524,6659072,3777240047841,476

The full details of these calculations are given on the Houghton and Sunderland South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Houghton and Seaham

The new seat of Houghton and Seaham is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Houghton and Seaham
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DurhamDawdon5,868Easington8252,3585311441025003,641
DurhamDeneside5,280Easington5032,392281378015903,227
DurhamSeaham5,270Easington8061,6396147420010003,100
SunderlandCopt Hill8,767Houghton and Sunderland South1,6973,09248187110001615,295
SunderlandDoxford7,563Houghton and Sunderland South1,4792,6244422812000284,523
SunderlandHetton8,632Houghton and Sunderland South1,3873,1881674513600285,257
SunderlandHoughton9,016Houghton and Sunderland South1,5423,30017722344001325,418
SunderlandShiney Row9,719Houghton and Sunderland South1,9113,49713334414100286,054
SunderlandSilksworth8,109Houghton and Sunderland South1,4843,05410131913800355,131
SunderlandSt Chad's7,547Houghton and Sunderland South1,6262,4081122569400314,527
 Total75,771 13,26027,5529242,733752050944346,173

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Houghton and Seaham.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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