Isle of Wight East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Isle of Wight East: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Bob Seely  (CON)
County/Area: Hampshire (South East)
Electorate: 55,973
Turnout: 70.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON19,63849.7%
LAB9,17423.2%
Green6,97117.7%
LIB1,6704.2%
UKIP1,1282.9%
MIN9112.3%
CON Majority10,46426.5%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Isle of Wight East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Isle of Wight East constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position3° Left4° Right
National Position9° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %63%52%52%
British Identity33%29%29%
Good Health55%49%48%
UK Born89%88%88%
Good Education54%43%39%
Good Job69%56%51%
High SEC70%57%51%
Average Age49.849.248.5
ABC1 Class73%60%53%

Isle of Wight East ranks #93 for "Leave", #390 for "Right" and #141 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Isle of Wight East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Isle of Wight East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Isle of Wight East

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Isle of Wight

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Isle of Wight, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Isle of WightTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Isle of WightArreton and Newchurch2,913Isle of Wight East1,18929877634604301,959
Isle of WightBinstead and Fishbourne2,566Isle of Wight East914355425132404101,727
Isle of WightBrading, St Helens and Bembridge5,596Isle of Wight East1,95582037104740010803,764
Isle of WightCarisbrooke2,624Isle of Wight West99343919727303601,767
Isle of WightCentral Wight2,686Isle of Wight West1,104165464143501701,808
Isle of WightChale, Niton and Whitwell2,200Isle of Wight West939262144819602101,480
Isle of WightCowes Medina3,312Isle of Wight West961654531147907102,229
Isle of WightCowes North2,466Isle of Wight West1,06723495828001201,660
Isle of WightCowes South and Northwood3,040Isle of Wight West1,31631240532304902,045
Isle of WightCowes West and Gurnard2,805Isle of Wight West1,01638026739506301,887
Isle of WightEast Cowes3,128Isle of Wight West1,0114981325936304202,105
Isle of WightFreshwater North2,052Isle of Wight West857201347119702001,380
Isle of WightFreshwater South2,287Isle of Wight West797276575432003401,538
Isle of WightGodshill and Wroxall2,595Isle of Wight East74052793537606001,747
Isle of WightHavenstreet, Ashey and Haylands2,819Isle of Wight East9543701653932604201,896
Isle of WightLake North2,992Isle of Wight East9077063410523602602,014
Isle of WightLake South2,724Isle of Wight East949426219131003501,832
Isle of WightNettlestone and Seaview2,061Isle of Wight East6701413871315701801,386
Isle of WightNewport Central3,136Isle of Wight West1,018647644830203202,111
Isle of WightNewport East2,543Isle of Wight West472951354319102001,712
Isle of WightNewport North2,626Isle of Wight West876524405524402701,766
Isle of WightNewport South3,159Isle of Wight West1,12153251636405402,128
Isle of WightNewport West2,619Isle of Wight West974391254230402601,762
Isle of WightParkhurst3,052Isle of Wight West9094173309128302502,055
Isle of WightRyde East2,928Isle of Wight East8593623542332005201,970
Isle of WightRyde North East2,739Isle of Wight East875541483131303401,842
Isle of WightRyde North West2,934Isle of Wight East1,101367303239804601,974
Isle of WightRyde South3,556Isle of Wight East8488586210546505602,394
Isle of WightRyde West3,127Isle of Wight East8575991333340607402,102
Isle of WightSandown North2,512Isle of Wight East717471408633703901,690
Isle of WightSandown South3,280Isle of Wight East1,251492196234403802,206
Isle of WightShanklin Central2,840Isle of Wight East1,104394142033104801,911
Isle of WightShanklin South2,897Isle of Wight East1,213299421432405801,950
Isle of WightTotland2,324Isle of Wight West849254615530503801,562
Isle of WightVentnor East2,467Isle of Wight East712469445235203101,660
Isle of WightVentnor West2,357Isle of Wight East796413214626704301,586
Isle of WightWest Wight2,672Isle of Wight West1,13730563728103101,797
Isle of WightWhippingham and Osborne3,265Isle of Wight West1,135506275740806302,196
Isle of WightWootton Bridge2,799Isle of Wight East1,02726616111029901901,882
 Total110,698 38,19017,1222,7391,92312,91401,592074,480

The full details of these calculations are given on the Isle of Wight seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Isle of Wight East

The new seat of Isle of Wight East is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Isle of Wight East
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Isle of WightArreton and Newchurch3,007Isle of Wight1,18929877634604301,959
Isle of WightBinstead and Fishbourne2,627Isle of Wight914355425132404101,727
Isle of WightBrading, St Helens and Bembridge5,930Isle of Wight1,95582037104740010803,764
Isle of WightGodshill and Wroxall2,517Isle of Wight74052793537606001,747
Isle of WightHavenstreet, Ashey and Haylands2,685Isle of Wight9543701653932604201,896
Isle of WightLake North2,785Isle of Wight9077063410523602602,014
Isle of WightLake South2,881Isle of Wight949426219131003501,832
Isle of WightNettlestone and Seaview2,427Isle of Wight6701413871315701801,386
Isle of WightRyde East2,763Isle of Wight8593623542332005201,970
Isle of WightRyde North East2,546Isle of Wight875541483131303401,842
Isle of WightRyde North West2,573Isle of Wight1,101367303239804601,974
Isle of WightRyde South2,841Isle of Wight8488586210546505602,394
Isle of WightRyde West2,614Isle of Wight8575991333340607402,102
Isle of WightSandown North2,294Isle of Wight717471408633703901,690
Isle of WightSandown South2,807Isle of Wight1,251492196234403802,206
Isle of WightShanklin Central2,660Isle of Wight1,104394142033104801,911
Isle of WightShanklin South2,721Isle of Wight1,213299421432405801,950
Isle of WightVentnor East2,265Isle of Wight712469445235203101,660
Isle of WightVentnor West2,325Isle of Wight796413214626704301,586
Isle of WightWootton Bridge2,705Isle of Wight1,02726616111029901901,882
 Total55,973 19,6389,1741,6701,1286,9710911039,492

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Isle of Wight East.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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