Jarrow: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Jarrow: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Stephen Hepburn  (LAB)
County/Area: Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate: 74,770
Turnout: 67.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB34,70268.6%
CON10,45920.7%
UKIP3,3676.7%
LIB1,2152.4%
Green8201.6%
LAB Majority24,24347.9%

See overview of other seats in North East.

Jarrow : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Jarrow constituency, the 'North East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth EastAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position15° Left8° Left
National Position7° Nat4° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %65%58%52%
British Identity30%26%29%
Good Health52%44%48%
UK Born91%95%88%
Good Education45%35%39%
Good Job60%46%51%
High SEC65%44%51%
Average Age50.349.048.5
ABC1 Class66%47%53%

Jarrow ranks #68 for "Leave", #549 for "Right" and #193 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Jarrow: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Jarrow been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Jarrow

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Gateshead

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Gateshead, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: GatesheadTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GatesheadBridges6,226Gateshead West1,0502,5521901121160004,020
GatesheadChowdene6,471Gateshead West1,1442,638142231230004,178
GatesheadDeckham6,760Gateshead West9033,079126195630004,366
GatesheadDunston and Teams6,229Gateshead West8672,742112255480004,024
GatesheadFelling5,948Jarrow6372,82966271400003,843
GatesheadHigh Fell6,397Jarrow8152,89469320330004,131
GatesheadLobley Hill and Bensham7,403Gateshead West1,2013,051164288780004,782
GatesheadLow Fell6,268Gateshead West1,3911,93356899570004,048
GatesheadSaltwell6,566Gateshead West1,0802,7101811421280004,241
GatesheadWindy Nook and Whitehills6,919Jarrow9882,99791367250004,468
 Total65,187 10,07627,4251,7092,28061100042,101

The full details of these calculations are given on the Gateshead seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Jarrow

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Jarrow, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: JarrowTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GatesheadPelaw and Heworth6,931Jarrow8532,956589106960004,600
GatesheadWardley and Leam Lane6,554Jarrow1,0632,957138118730004,349
South TynesideBede6,091Jarrow7422,84445369420004,042
South TynesideBoldon Colliery7,251South Shields1,4763,03984631490004,811
South TynesideCleadon and East Boldon6,565South Shields2,0962,04413428550004,357
South TynesideFellgate and Hedworth5,995Jarrow8332,66360374480003,978
South TynesideHebburn North6,656Jarrow1,1543,03833126660004,417
South TynesideHebburn South5,977Jarrow8772,65221357600003,967
South TynesideMonkton6,316Jarrow8552,86232349940004,192
South TynesidePrimrose6,492Jarrow8082,96326449620004,308
 Total64,828 10,75728,0181,1622,33974500043,021

The full details of these calculations are given on the Jarrow seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: South Shields

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of South Shields, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: South ShieldsTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
South TynesideBeacon and Bents7,070South Shields1,2732,814741322500004,543
South TynesideBiddick and All Saints6,583South Shields7322,818122466920004,230
South TynesideCleadon Park5,274South Shields9962,035431731420003,389
South TynesideHarton6,686South Shields1,1422,508704411350004,296
South TynesideHorsley Hill6,825South Shields1,2712,550623911110004,385
South TynesideSimonside and Rekendyke6,644Jarrow8343,047451611810004,268
South TynesideWest Park5,990South Shields9932,2131193961280003,849
South TynesideWestoe6,227South Shields1,2732,183593231640004,002
South TynesideWhitburn and Marsden5,641South Shields1,2211,882523681020003,625
South TynesideWhiteleas6,510South Shields8343,026351551330004,183
 Total63,450 10,56925,0766813,0061,43800040,770

The full details of these calculations are given on the South Shields seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Jarrow

The new seat of Jarrow is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Jarrow
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GatesheadFelling5,586Gateshead6372,82966271400003,843
GatesheadHigh Fell5,895Gateshead8152,89469320330004,131
GatesheadPelaw and Heworth6,373Jarrow8532,956589106960004,600
GatesheadWardley and Leam Lane5,972Jarrow1,0632,957138118730004,349
GatesheadWindy Nook and Whitehills7,065Gateshead9882,99791367250004,468
South TynesideBede5,956Jarrow7422,84445369420004,042
South TynesideFellgate and Hedworth5,835Jarrow8332,66360374480003,978
South TynesideHebburn North6,930Jarrow1,1543,03833126660004,417
South TynesideHebburn South6,234Jarrow8772,65221357600003,967
South TynesideMonkton6,307Jarrow8552,86232349940004,192
South TynesidePrimrose6,293Jarrow8082,96326449620004,308
South TynesideSimonside and Rekendyke6,324South Shields8343,047451611810004,268
 Total74,770 10,45934,7021,2153,36782000050,563

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Jarrow.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)