Kensington and Chelsea: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Kensington and Chelsea: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (changed seat)  (CON)
County/Area: Kensington and Chelsea (London)
Electorate: 76,454
Turnout: 72.2%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON26,11347.3%
LAB21,00338.1%
LIB6,24511.3%
Green1,1382.1%
OTH5391.0%
UKIP1570.3%
CON Majority5,1109.3%

See overview of other seats in London.

Kensington and Chelsea : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Kensington and Chelsea constituency, the 'London' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatLondonAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position22° Right11° Right
National Position30° Int29° Int1° Int
EU Leave %31%40%52%
British Identity27%38%29%
Good Health48%50%48%
UK Born89%64%88%
Good Education40%48%39%
Good Job54%61%51%
High SEC57%55%51%
Average Age48.644.148.5
ABC1 Class59%62%53%

Kensington and Chelsea ranks #567 for "Leave", #11 for "Right" and #565 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Kensington and Chelsea: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Kensington and Chelsea been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Kensington and Chelsea

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Chelsea and Fulham

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Chelsea and Fulham, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Chelsea and FulhamTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Hammersmith and FulhamFulham Broadway6,633Hammersmith and Fulham1,6922,17444162160004,385
Hammersmith and FulhamMunster6,650Hammersmith and Fulham2,3361,42958316310004,395
Hammersmith and FulhamPalace Riverside4,505Hammersmith and Fulham1,665830307391370002,978
Hammersmith and FulhamParsons Green and Walham6,518Hammersmith and Fulham2,5151,21442876750004,308
Hammersmith and FulhamSands End7,682Hammersmith and Fulham2,0882,1155811491450005,078
Hammersmith and FulhamTown6,748Hammersmith and Fulham2,0821,55676528290004,460
Kensington and ChelseaBrompton and Hans Town3,029Kensington and Chelsea1,3614711366280002,002
Kensington and ChelseaChelsea Riverside5,206Kensington and Chelsea1,5471,46635014650003,442
Kensington and ChelseaRedcliffe5,574Kensington and Chelsea2,284788434731070003,686
Kensington and ChelseaRoyal Hospital5,759Kensington and Chelsea2,59078133724750003,807
Kensington and ChelseaStanley5,424Kensington and Chelsea2,0181,16526440970003,584
 Total63,728 22,17813,9894,62652780500042,125

The full details of these calculations are given on the Chelsea and Fulham seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Kensington

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Kensington, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: KensingtonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Kensington and ChelseaAbingdon4,990Kensington and Chelsea1,78889739208600223,185
Kensington and ChelseaBrompton and Hans Town2,832Kensington and Chelsea1,13048613801100431,808
Kensington and ChelseaCampden4,908Kensington and Chelsea1,92587829201400233,132
Kensington and ChelseaColville4,892Kensington and Chelsea6821,6085280155001493,122
Kensington and ChelseaCourtfield5,151Kensington and Chelsea1,99884238003900303,289
Kensington and ChelseaDalgarno3,534Kensington and Chelsea3681,64620301400242,255
Kensington and ChelseaEarl's Court5,141Kensington and Chelsea1,384958770014500253,282
Kensington and ChelseaGolborne4,373Kensington and Chelsea3292,12818308800642,792
Kensington and ChelseaHolland4,653Kensington and Chelsea1,5011,07137001200172,971
Kensington and ChelseaNorland3,180Kensington and Chelsea96777126001600142,028
Kensington and ChelseaNotting Dale4,527Kensington and Chelsea4822,17617703200232,890
Kensington and ChelseaPembridge3,245Kensington and Chelsea97668334804700182,072
Kensington and ChelseaQueen's Gate5,002Kensington and Chelsea1,93480239104000243,191
Kensington and ChelseaRedcliffe227Kensington and Chelsea82391903001144
Kensington and ChelseaSt Helen's3,384Kensington and Chelsea5861,24325206000192,160
Kensington and ChelseaStanley554Kensington and Chelsea18110421040043353
 Total60,593 16,31316,3324,72407660053938,674

The full details of these calculations are given on the Kensington seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Kensington and Chelsea

The new seat of Kensington and Chelsea is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Kensington and Chelsea
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Kensington and ChelseaAbingdon4,115Kensington1,78889739208600223,185
Kensington and ChelseaBrompton and Hans Town2,214Chelsea and Fulham1,28749514232000221,969
Kensington and ChelseaBrompton and Hans Town2,070Kensington1,20446213231900211,841
Kensington and ChelseaCampden4,218Kensington1,92587829201400233,132
Kensington and ChelseaChelsea Riverside5,036Chelsea and Fulham1,5471,46635014650003,442
Kensington and ChelseaColville5,093Kensington6821,6085280155001493,122
Kensington and ChelseaCourtfield3,758Kensington1,99884238003900303,289
Kensington and ChelseaDalgarno3,898Kensington3681,64620301400242,255
Kensington and ChelseaEarl's Court4,288Kensington1,384958770014500253,282
Kensington and ChelseaGolborne4,709Kensington3292,12818308800642,792
Kensington and ChelseaHolland4,107Kensington1,5011,07137001200172,971
Kensington and ChelseaNorland3,391Kensington96777126001600142,028
Kensington and ChelseaNotting Dale5,185Kensington4822,17617703200232,890
Kensington and ChelseaPembridge2,872Kensington97668334804700182,072
Kensington and ChelseaQueen's Gate3,537Kensington1,93480239104000243,191
Kensington and ChelseaRedcliffe3,995Chelsea and Fulham2,273795435701060013,680
Kensington and ChelseaRedcliffe163Kensington93321834000150
Kensington and ChelseaRoyal Hospital5,151Chelsea and Fulham2,59078133724750003,807
Kensington and ChelseaSt Helen's3,610Kensington5861,24325206000192,160
Kensington and ChelseaStanley4,577Chelsea and Fulham1,9951,152259369200393,573
Kensington and ChelseaStanley467Kensington2041172649004364
 Total76,454 26,11321,0036,2451571,1380053955,195

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Kensington and Chelsea.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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