Kent Mid and Ticehurst: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Kent Mid and Ticehurst: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (new seat)  (CON)
County/Area: Kent (South East)
Electorate: 75,703
Turnout: 71.8%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON36,82967.8%
LAB9,67517.8%
LIB4,7768.8%
UKIP1,4522.7%
Green1,3642.5%
OTH2290.4%
CON Majority27,15450.0%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Kent Mid and Ticehurst : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Kent Mid and Ticehurst constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right4° Right
National Position7° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %55%52%52%
British Identity43%29%29%
Good Health48%49%48%
UK Born67%88%88%
Good Education40%43%39%
Good Job58%56%51%
High SEC54%57%51%
Average Age45.649.248.5
ABC1 Class58%60%53%

Kent Mid and Ticehurst ranks #248 for "Leave", #106 for "Right" and #200 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Kent Mid and Ticehurst: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Kent Mid and Ticehurst been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Kent Mid and Ticehurst

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Ashford

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ashford, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: AshfordTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AshfordAylesford Green2,183Ashford6168003830120001,496
AshfordBeaver4,481Ashford1,1741,440143227870003,071
AshfordBiddenden2,006Kent Mid and Ticehurst1,0551883513820001,373
AshfordBockhanger1,776Ashford749427142070001,217
AshfordBoughton Aluph and Eastwell2,575Ashford1,080493176880001,765
AshfordBybrook1,943Ashford707545224990001,332
AshfordCharing1,805Ashford83715415370210001,235
AshfordDowns North1,889Ashford905284374640001,294
AshfordDowns West1,908Ashford9632133018840001,308
AshfordGodinton4,872Ashford1,902995212166630003,338
AshfordGreat Chart with Singleton North2,859Ashford1,1186329884270001,959
AshfordHighfield1,978Ashford8573496948330001,356
AshfordIsle of Oxney1,986Ashford9632065368720001,362
AshfordKennington1,674Ashford70925911933260001,146
AshfordLittle Burton Farm2,444Ashford1,00045013869170001,674
AshfordNorman2,307Ashford7806773766210001,581
AshfordNorth Willesborough3,950Ashford1,24384747376670002,706
AshfordPark Farm North2,809Ashford1,2045408684100001,924
AshfordPark Farm South2,399Ashford1,0795081036100001,643
AshfordRolvenden and Tenterden West1,816Kent Mid and Ticehurst1,09683357230001,244
AshfordSingleton South2,412Ashford93853160106170001,652
AshfordSouth Willesborough2,891Ashford91383089111390001,982
AshfordSt Michaels1,839Kent Mid and Ticehurst929158867800001,260
AshfordStanhope2,670Ashford58898156169360001,830
AshfordStour4,085Ashford1,5301,0029280950002,799
AshfordTenterden North1,738Kent Mid and Ticehurst81420911528250001,191
AshfordTenterden South1,847Kent Mid and Ticehurst8862377851140001,266
AshfordVictoria4,393Ashford1,3051,244141242770003,009
AshfordWashford2,692Ashford1,0446926432120001,844
AshfordWeald Central3,714Kent Mid and Ticehurst1,8155149686330002,544
AshfordWeald East1,879Ashford929231445790001,288
AshfordWeald North1,845Kent Mid and Ticehurst9152052755610001,263
AshfordWeald South4,003Ashford2,0145505145830002,743
AshfordWye1,731Ashford66136612425100001,186
 Total87,399 35,31817,8403,1012,2181,40400059,881

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ashford seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Bexhill and Battle

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Bexhill and Battle, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Bexhill and BattleTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
RotherBattle Town4,119Bexhill and Battle1,42879482121560003,120
RotherCentral4,340Bexhill and Battle1,5121,339270107590003,287
RotherCollington3,375Bexhill and Battle1,6326909874610002,555
RotherCrowhurst2,069Bexhill and Battle97038214839290001,568
RotherDarwell4,096Bexhill and Battle1,999611222642060003,102
RotherEwhurst and Sedlescombe2,017Bexhill and Battle1,11819915722320001,528
RotherKewhurst3,640Bexhill and Battle1,879550140173160002,758
RotherOld Town3,056Bexhill and Battle1,197696236110750002,314
RotherRother Levels3,624Bexhill and Battle2,00538924285240002,745
RotherSackville3,484Bexhill and Battle1,450907161104160002,638
RotherSalehurst3,601Bexhill and Battle1,52255060714360002,729
RotherSidley4,520Bexhill and Battle1,5111,57777223350003,423
RotherSt Marks3,534Bexhill and Battle1,7867414496100002,677
RotherSt Michaels3,832Bexhill and Battle1,3441,251140150180002,903
RotherSt Stephens3,809Bexhill and Battle1,598901180179270002,885
RotherTicehurst and Etchingham3,630Kent Mid and Ticehurst2,048285199142030002,749
WealdenCross in Hand / Five Ashes1,927Bexhill and Battle1,267148117270001,460
WealdenHeathfield East1,928Bexhill and Battle1,290111357180001,461
WealdenHeathfield North and Central6,327Bexhill and Battle3,534681249422860004,792
WealdenHerstmonceux2,243Bexhill and Battle1,19428775100430001,699
WealdenNinfield and Hooe with Wartling1,933Bexhill and Battle1,200171686180001,463
WealdenPevensey and Westham7,405Bexhill and Battle3,3691,4283033681420005,610
WealdenPolegate North3Lewes and Uckfield210000003
 Total78,512 36,85514,6894,4832,0051,43700059,469

The full details of these calculations are given on the Bexhill and Battle seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Faversham and Kent Mid

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Faversham and Kent Mid, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Faversham and Kent MidTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MaidstoneBearsted6,784Maidstone3,23376628688660004,439
MaidstoneBoughton Monchelsea and Chart Sutton2,168Kent Mid and Ticehurst9863197121220001,419
MaidstoneBoxley6,988Maidstone3,148863332199320004,574
MaidstoneDetling and Thurnham2,517Maidstone1,1212971754490001,646
MaidstoneDownswood and Otham2,323Maidstone97535012338350001,521
MaidstoneHarrietsham and Lenham4,484Kent Mid and Ticehurst1,929648190132360002,935
MaidstoneHeadcorn4,151Kent Mid and Ticehurst1,90041286163050002,719
MaidstoneLeeds2,026Kent Mid and Ticehurst9212309754250001,327
MaidstoneNorth Downs2,050Kent Mid and Ticehurst1,0192323714390001,341
MaidstonePark Wood5,100Maidstone1,6271,154276252290003,338
MaidstoneShepway North7,438Maidstone2,5221,491445327840004,869
MaidstoneShepway South4,865Maidstone1,3771,472209100250003,183
MaidstoneSutton Valence and Langley2,345Kent Mid and Ticehurst1,09225410926520001,533
SwaleAbbey4,415Canterbury and Faversham1,4761,066121571690002,889
SwaleBoughton and Courtenay4,644Canterbury and Faversham2,090656128661000003,040
SwaleEast Downs2,289Canterbury and Faversham1,0422955618870001,498
SwalePriory2,136Canterbury and Faversham7554719942300001,397
SwaleSt Ann's4,461Canterbury and Faversham1,475928269971510002,920
SwaleWatling4,825Canterbury and Faversham1,7001,0711411121340003,158
 Total76,009 30,38812,9753,2501,7031,43000049,746

The full details of these calculations are given on the Faversham and Kent Mid seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Maidstone and The Weald

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Maidstone and The Weald, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Maidstone and The WealdTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MaidstoneAllington5,181Maidstone2,05964869914140043,555
MaidstoneBarming1,781Maidstone83220396211100581,221
MaidstoneBridge4,409Maidstone1,645708517381080093,025
MaidstoneCoxheath and Hunton5,507Kent Mid and Ticehurst2,314633642148350073,779
MaidstoneEast6,442Maidstone2,3411,019831135880064,420
MaidstoneFant7,183Maidstone2,2551,5927591691480074,930
MaidstoneHeath4,540Maidstone1,63479259345460063,116
MaidstoneHigh Street7,320Maidstone2,3591,464840255950085,021
MaidstoneLoose1,770Kent Mid and Ticehurst76015624831150041,214
MaidstoneMarden and Yalding5,900Kent Mid and Ticehurst2,703695466130470084,049
MaidstoneNorth7,155Maidstone2,5091,395711194980034,910
MaidstoneSouth6,187Maidstone2,507770776148360094,246
MaidstoneStaplehurst4,469Kent Mid and Ticehurst1,928538473634900163,067
Tunbridge WellsBenenden and Cranbrook5,854Kent Mid and Ticehurst2,50762570579970054,018
Tunbridge WellsFrittenden and Sissinghurst1,636Kent Mid and Ticehurst7841949917800221,124
 Total75,334 29,13711,4328,4551,6148850017251,695

The full details of these calculations are given on the Maidstone and The Weald seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Tunbridge Wells

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Tunbridge Wells, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Tunbridge WellsTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Tunbridge WellsBrenchley and Horsmonden3,805Kent Mid and Ticehurst1,902592124692200382,747
Tunbridge WellsBroadwater3,182Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,310637184992900382,297
Tunbridge WellsCapel1,768Tonbridge728250250151700161,276
Tunbridge WellsCulverden5,942Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough2,3301,0454984531700514,286
Tunbridge WellsGoudhurst and Lamberhurst3,574Kent Mid and Ticehurst1,822492153522400352,578
Tunbridge WellsHawkhurst and Sandhurst4,603Kent Mid and Ticehurst2,1386982921143800403,320
Tunbridge WellsPaddock Wood East3,088Kent Mid and Ticehurst1,3705261711221000292,228
Tunbridge WellsPaddock Wood West2,823Kent Mid and Ticehurst1,1965521421031900252,037
Tunbridge WellsPantiles and St Mark's5,049Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough2,3367143053921100383,643
Tunbridge WellsPark5,281Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough2,232986407578300463,811
Tunbridge WellsPembury4,403Tonbridge1,8858312631004800503,177
Tunbridge WellsRusthall3,631Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,1749162698913900342,621
Tunbridge WellsSherwood5,007Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,8041,2832671763300493,612
Tunbridge WellsSouthborough and High Brooms5,496Tonbridge1,7951,5683411694700463,966
Tunbridge WellsSouthborough North3,165Tonbridge1,430577193313100222,284
Tunbridge WellsSpeldhurst and Bidborough4,353Tonbridge2,213610214511300403,141
Tunbridge WellsSt James'4,536Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,2841,068744576200583,273
Tunbridge WellsSt John's5,431Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,9051,0485407729900493,918
 Total75,137 30,85414,3935,3571,4651,4420070454,215

The full details of these calculations are given on the Tunbridge Wells seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Kent Mid and Ticehurst

The new seat of Kent Mid and Ticehurst is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Kent Mid and Ticehurst
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AshfordBiddenden1,977Ashford1,0551883513820001,373
AshfordRolvenden and Tenterden West1,969Ashford1,09683357230001,244
AshfordSt Michaels1,832Ashford929158867800001,260
AshfordTenterden North1,744Ashford81420911528250001,191
AshfordTenterden South1,898Ashford8862377851140001,266
AshfordWeald Central3,996Ashford1,8155149686330002,544
AshfordWeald North1,891Ashford9152052755610001,263
MaidstoneBoughton Monchelsea and Chart Sutton1,925Faversham and Kent Mid9863197121220001,419
MaidstoneCoxheath and Hunton5,456Maidstone and The Weald2,314633642148350073,779
MaidstoneHarrietsham and Lenham4,418Faversham and Kent Mid1,929648190132360002,935
MaidstoneHeadcorn3,778Faversham and Kent Mid1,90041286163050002,719
MaidstoneLeeds1,770Faversham and Kent Mid9212309754250001,327
MaidstoneLoose1,976Maidstone and The Weald76015624831150041,214
MaidstoneMarden and Yalding5,618Maidstone and The Weald2,703695466130470084,049
MaidstoneNorth Downs1,834Faversham and Kent Mid1,0192323714390001,341
MaidstoneStaplehurst4,330Maidstone and The Weald1,928538473634900163,067
MaidstoneSutton Valence and Langley2,004Faversham and Kent Mid1,09225410926520001,533
RotherTicehurst and Etchingham3,410Bexhill and Battle2,048285199142030002,749
Tunbridge WellsBenenden and Cranbrook5,044Maidstone and The Weald2,50762570579970054,018
Tunbridge WellsBrenchley and Horsmonden3,852Tunbridge Wells1,902592124692200382,747
Tunbridge WellsFrittenden and Sissinghurst1,571Maidstone and The Weald7841949917800221,124
Tunbridge WellsGoudhurst and Lamberhurst3,340Tunbridge Wells1,822492153522400352,578
Tunbridge WellsHawkhurst and Sandhurst4,402Tunbridge Wells2,1386982921143800403,320
Tunbridge WellsPaddock Wood East2,913Tunbridge Wells1,3705261711221000292,228
Tunbridge WellsPaddock Wood West2,755Tunbridge Wells1,1965521421031900252,037
 Total75,703 36,8299,6754,7761,4521,3640022954,325

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Kent Mid and Ticehurst.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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