Kent North Coastal: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Kent North Coastal: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Roger Gale  (CON)
County/Area: Kent (South East)
Electorate: 75,864
Turnout: 67.0%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON28,99657.1%
LAB17,35734.2%
LIB2,0124.0%
UKIP1,6043.2%
Green7351.4%
OTH1080.2%
CON Majority11,63922.9%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Kent North Coastal : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Kent North Coastal constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position5° Right4° Right
National Position10° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %59%52%52%
British Identity27%29%29%
Good Health50%49%48%
UK Born97%88%88%
Good Education34%43%39%
Good Job48%56%51%
High SEC53%57%51%
Average Age51.149.248.5
ABC1 Class47%60%53%

Kent North Coastal ranks #163 for "Leave", #223 for "Right" and #118 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Kent North Coastal: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Kent North Coastal been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Kent North Coastal

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Canterbury

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Canterbury, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: CanterburyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CanterburyBarton8,437Canterbury and Faversham2,3893,02460101180006,132
CanterburyBlean Forest6,802Canterbury and Faversham2,3022,03640602010004,945
CanterburyChartham and Stone Street5,047Canterbury and Faversham1,9261,4212540680003,669
CanterburyChestfield4,705Kent North Coastal2,1351,0831850170003,420
CanterburyGorrell8,163Kent North Coastal2,4522,98734101530005,933
CanterburyLittle Stour and Adisham2,870Canterbury and Faversham1,1327042210290002,086
CanterburyNailbourne2,842Canterbury and Faversham1,0507072930160002,066
CanterburyNorthgate5,072Canterbury and Faversham1,2132,1672230840003,687
CanterburySeasalter5,355Canterbury and Faversham2,1591,5251870220003,893
CanterburySt Stephen's6,701Canterbury and Faversham1,7332,52242101950004,871
CanterburySturry4,066Canterbury and Faversham1,5191,2171790410002,956
CanterburySwalecliffe2,846Kent North Coastal1,0428981150140002,069
CanterburyTankerton2,522Kent North Coastal1,0226441290380001,833
CanterburyWestgate6,535Canterbury and Faversham1,7962,24352901830004,751
CanterburyWincheap6,175Canterbury and Faversham1,5142,39347901020004,488
 Total78,138 25,38425,5714,56301,28100056,799

The full details of these calculations are given on the Canterbury seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Thanet North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Thanet North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Thanet NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CanterburyBeltinge5,545Kent North Coastal2,3411,12189112220033,688
CanterburyGreenhill3,173Kent North Coastal1,1667703113750012,110
CanterburyHerne and Broomfield6,329Kent North Coastal2,6871,188721531040064,210
CanterburyHeron9,767Kent North Coastal3,5902,0174752391660096,496
CanterburyReculver2,974Kent North Coastal1,374558102680021,978
CanterburySturry1,460Canterbury and Faversham520295842051001971
CanterburySwalecliffe11Kent North Coastal421000007
CanterburyWest Bay3,273Kent North Coastal1,20073879139200012,177
ThanetBirchington North2,875Kent North Coastal1,332415767690051,913
ThanetBirchington South4,863Kent North Coastal1,8071,0421392062000213,235
ThanetDane Valley6,076Thanet East and Sandwich1,6381,915129306470074,042
ThanetGarlinge3,769Kent North Coastal1,40893028120160062,508
ThanetMargate Central4,219Thanet East and Sandwich1,2701,245161201490082,808
ThanetSalmestone4,435Thanet East and Sandwich1,3901,226116147680022,949
ThanetThanet Villages5,242Kent North Coastal2,2019912913410700253,487
ThanetWestbrook3,229Kent North Coastal1,29269217121200052,147
ThanetWestgate-on-Sea5,415Kent North Coastal1,9431,2811961411600243,601
 Total72,655 27,16316,4261,5872,1978280012648,327

The full details of these calculations are given on the Thanet North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Kent North Coastal

The new seat of Kent North Coastal is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Kent North Coastal
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CanterburyBeltinge5,901Thanet North2,3411,12189112220033,688
CanterburyChestfield5,569Canterbury2,1351,0831850170003,420
CanterburyGorrell8,177Canterbury2,4522,98734101530005,933
CanterburyGreenhill3,038Thanet North1,1667703113750012,110
CanterburyHerne and Broomfield6,145Thanet North2,6871,188721531040064,210
CanterburyHeron9,271Thanet North3,5902,0174752391660096,496
CanterburyReculver2,951Thanet North1,374558102680021,978
CanterburySwalecliffe3,165Canterbury1,0428971160140002,069
CanterburySwalecliffe12Thanet North430000007
CanterburyTankerton2,792Canterbury1,0226441290380001,833
CanterburyWest Bay3,146Thanet North1,20073879139200012,177
ThanetBirchington North3,252Thanet North1,332415767690051,913
ThanetBirchington South5,203Thanet North1,8071,0421392062000213,235
ThanetGarlinge3,699Thanet North1,40893028120160062,508
ThanetThanet Villages5,193Thanet North2,2019912913410700253,487
ThanetWestbrook3,161Thanet North1,29269217121200052,147
ThanetWestgate-on-Sea5,189Thanet North1,9431,2811961411600243,601
 Total75,864 28,99617,3572,0121,6047350010850,812

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Kent North Coastal.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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