Kettering: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Kettering: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Philip Hollobone  (CON)
County/Area: Northamptonshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 71,489
Turnout: 72.1%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON29,90758.0%
LAB18,68136.2%
LIB1,7223.3%
Green1,1502.2%
UKIP1070.2%
CON Majority11,22621.8%

See overview of other seats in East Midlands.

Kettering : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Kettering constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right3° Right
National Position13° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %61%59%52%
British Identity25%27%29%
Good Health55%45%48%
UK Born93%91%88%
Good Education38%36%39%
Good Job47%48%51%
High SEC59%47%51%
Average Age49.749.148.5
ABC1 Class49%50%53%

Kettering ranks #119 for "Leave", #101 for "Right" and #62 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Kettering: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Kettering been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Kettering

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Kettering

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Kettering, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: KetteringTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
KetteringAll Saints6,264Kettering2,2231,85310301480004,327
KetteringAvondale Grange4,056Kettering1,2711,389830590002,802
KetteringBarton3,886Kettering1,777782810450002,685
KetteringBrambleside3,749Kettering1,669795880370002,589
KetteringBurton Latimer5,689Kettering2,3771,3401890230003,929
KetteringDesborough Loatland4,361Kettering1,8931,016730310003,013
KetteringDesborough St Giles3,825Kettering1,612874770780002,641
KetteringIse Lodge5,433Kettering2,3771,1411740590003,751
KetteringNorthfield2,230Kettering642790370700001,539
KetteringPipers Hill4,052Kettering1,4791,1321280590002,798
KetteringQueen Eleanor and Buccleuch1,935Kettering839424470270001,337
KetteringRothwell5,876Kettering2,3331,5461430370004,059
KetteringSlade4,697Kettering2,278801680970003,244
KetteringSt Michael's and Wicksteed5,656Kettering2,0201,66510201190003,906
KetteringSt Peter's3,800Kettering1,7366921150820002,625
KetteringWelland2,026Kettering1,050311230160001,400
KetteringWilliam Knibb3,988Kettering1,0391,5028801250002,754
 Total71,523 28,61518,0531,61901,11200049,399

The full details of these calculations are given on the Kettering seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Wellingborough

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wellingborough, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: WellingboroughTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East NorthamptonshireHigham Ferrers Chichele2,928Wellingborough1,23947417153300001,967
East NorthamptonshireHigham Ferrers Lancaster3,586Wellingborough2,0602585323140002,408
East NorthamptonshireRushden Bates3,636Wellingborough1,5916757778210002,442
East NorthamptonshireRushden Hayden5,344Wellingborough1,9121,333132166480003,591
East NorthamptonshireRushden Pemberton5,118Wellingborough1,9481,155151153320003,439
East NorthamptonshireRushden Sartoris3,046Wellingborough1,3005897073140002,046
East NorthamptonshireRushden Spencer4,742Wellingborough2,057832120129480003,186
WellingboroughBozeat1,545Wellingborough747255164160001,038
WellingboroughBrickhill3,009Wellingborough1,1037017172750002,022
WellingboroughCroyland5,077Wellingborough1,7271,355661201420003,410
WellingboroughFinedon3,227Kettering1,292628103107380002,168
WellingboroughGreat Doddington and Wilby1,409Wellingborough58425939605000947
WellingboroughHarrowden and Sywell1,688Daventry and Lutterworth798254685100001,135
WellingboroughHatton2,915Wellingborough1,1146649573120001,958
WellingboroughIrchester4,292Wellingborough1,5281,11687106460002,883
WellingboroughIsebrook1,365Wellingborough363419274068000917
WellingboroughQueensway5,438Wellingborough1,3911,8031002101500003,654
WellingboroughRedwell4,999Wellingborough2,296805116109310003,357
WellingboroughRixon5,407Wellingborough1,9021,53059125160003,632
WellingboroughSwanspool3,166Wellingborough1,0509882937220002,126
WellingboroughVictoria4,298Wellingborough1,1431,5543952980002,886
WellingboroughWollaston3,023Wellingborough1,435473948210002,031
 Total79,258 30,58018,1201,7831,80395700053,243

The full details of these calculations are given on the Wellingborough seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Kettering

The new seat of Kettering is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Kettering
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
KetteringAll Saints5,060Kettering2,2231,85310301480004,327
KetteringAvondale Grange3,534Kettering1,2711,389830590002,802
KetteringBarton4,145Kettering1,777782810450002,685
KetteringBrambleside3,517Kettering1,669795880370002,589
KetteringBurton Latimer6,329Kettering2,3771,3401890230003,929
KetteringDesborough Loatland4,230Kettering1,8931,016730310003,013
KetteringDesborough St Giles3,865Kettering1,612874770780002,641
KetteringIse Lodge5,376Kettering2,3771,1411740590003,751
KetteringNorthfield1,785Kettering642790370700001,539
KetteringPipers Hill3,830Kettering1,4791,1321280590002,798
KetteringQueen Eleanor and Buccleuch1,972Kettering839424470270001,337
KetteringRothwell5,939Kettering2,3331,5461430370004,059
KetteringSlade4,519Kettering2,278801680970003,244
KetteringSt Michael's and Wicksteed5,137Kettering2,0201,66510201190003,906
KetteringSt Peter's3,478Kettering1,7366921150820002,625
KetteringWelland2,174Kettering1,050311230160001,400
KetteringWilliam Knibb3,389Kettering1,0391,5028801250002,754
WellingboroughFinedon3,210Wellingborough1,292628103107380002,168
 Total71,489 29,90718,6811,7221071,15000051,567

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Kettering.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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