Kingston upon Hull East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Kingston upon Hull East: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Karl Turner  (LAB)
County/Area: Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate: 73,262
Turnout: 58.8%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB25,13258.4%
CON12,56729.2%
UKIP2,8246.6%
LIB1,4213.3%
Green5801.3%
MIN4861.1%
OTH320.1%
LAB Majority12,56529.2%

See overview of other seats in Yorks/Humber.

Kingston upon Hull East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Kingston upon Hull East constituency, the 'Yorks/Humber' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatYorks/HumberAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position9° Left3° Left
National Position13° Nat6° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %72%58%52%
British Identity23%28%29%
Good Health41%46%48%
UK Born98%92%88%
Good Education25%36%39%
Good Job38%47%51%
High SEC35%46%51%
Average Age48.948.548.5
ABC1 Class36%49%53%

Kingston upon Hull East ranks #7 for "Leave", #483 for "Right" and #68 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Kingston upon Hull East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Kingston upon Hull East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Kingston upon Hull East

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Hull East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hull East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Hull EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Kingston Upon HullDrypool9,137Kingston upon Hull East1,8082,629301252850005,075
Kingston Upon HullHolderness9,545Kingston upon Hull East1,9622,577360327750005,301
Kingston Upon HullIngs8,522Kingston upon Hull East1,4332,77592337960004,733
Kingston Upon HullLonghill8,430Kingston upon Hull East1,2262,948121323660004,684
Kingston Upon HullMarfleet9,783Kingston upon Hull East1,2433,617101392810005,434
Kingston Upon HullSouthcoates East5,806Kingston upon Hull East8541,9453538380003,225
Kingston Upon HullSouthcoates West5,724Kingston upon Hull East8022,02671264160003,179
Kingston Upon HullSutton9,012Kingston upon Hull East1,6292,837178296670005,007
 Total65,959 10,95721,3541,2592,57449400036,638

The full details of these calculations are given on the Hull East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Hull West and Hessle

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hull West and Hessle, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Hull West and HessleTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East Riding of YorkshireHessle10,668Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice2,5212,56761412728026546,126
Kingston Upon HullBoothferry8,571Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice1,6482,39040419454022854,923
Kingston Upon HullDerringham8,065Kingston upon Hull North1,3632,41038224059017434,631
Kingston Upon HullMyton11,150Kingston upon Hull East1,6103,778162250860486326,404
Kingston Upon HullNewington7,850Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice1,1632,73113222060019764,509
Kingston Upon HullPickering8,106Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice1,2862,50542718930021644,657
Kingston Upon HullSt Andrew's5,771Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice7251,96090181150332113,314
 Total60,181 10,31618,3412,2111,40133201,8986534,564

The full details of these calculations are given on the Hull West and Hessle seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Kingston upon Hull East

The new seat of Kingston upon Hull East is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Kingston upon Hull East
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Kingston Upon HullDrypool8,898Hull East1,8082,629301252850005,075
Kingston Upon HullHolderness9,781Hull East1,9622,577360327750005,301
Kingston Upon HullIngs9,255Hull East1,4332,77592337960004,733
Kingston Upon HullLonghill8,430Hull East1,2262,948121323660004,684
Kingston Upon HullMarfleet8,643Hull East1,2433,617101392810005,434
Kingston Upon HullMyton8,292Hull West and Hessle1,6103,778162250860486326,404
Kingston Upon HullSouthcoates East5,309Hull East8541,9453538380003,225
Kingston Upon HullSouthcoates West5,490Hull East8022,02671264160003,179
Kingston Upon HullSutton9,164Hull East1,6292,837178296670005,007
 Total73,262 12,56725,1321,4212,82458004863243,042

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Kingston upon Hull East.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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