Lanarkshire Mid: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Lanarkshire Mid: Overview

 Projection: SNP seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Angela Crawley  (SNP)
County/Area: Ayrshire and Lanark (Scotland)
Electorate: 76,098
Turnout: 64.8%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
SNP17,74836.0%
LAB17,33135.1%
CON12,92026.2%
LIB7281.5%
UKIP5691.2%
OTH360.1%
SNP Majority4170.8%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.

Lanarkshire Mid : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Lanarkshire Mid constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatScotlandAll GB
Party WinnerSNPSNPCON
Economic Position18° Left14° Left
National Position17° Int17° Int1° Int
EU Leave %38%38%52%
British Identity53%27%29%
Good Health46%52%48%
UK Born46%93%88%
Good Education42%36%39%
Good Job54%49%51%
High SEC51%55%51%
Average Age45.548.748.5
ABC1 Class55%50%53%

Lanarkshire Mid ranks #531 for "Leave", #562 for "Right" and #514 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Lanarkshire Mid: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Lanarkshire Mid been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Lanarkshire Mid

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
South LanarkshireAvondale and Stonehouse12,487Lanarkshire South West3,1031,86327211703,043008,398
South LanarkshireClydesdale North54 1311100120037
South LanarkshireClydesdale South7,712Lanarkshire Mid;
Lanarkshire South West
1,2761,8125217001,877005,187
South LanarkshireEast Kilbride Central North14,342Lanarkshire South West2,3353,2543259703,634009,645
South LanarkshireEast Kilbride Central South11,420Lanarkshire South West1,4362,8321966503,152007,681
South LanarkshireEast Kilbride East9,871Lanarkshire South West1,2462,4902125002,641006,639
South LanarkshireEast Kilbride South12,282Lanarkshire South West1,6232,6471556403,771008,260
South LanarkshireEast Kilbride West12,274Lanarkshire South West2,6712,2483776502,893008,254
 Total80,442 13,70317,1571,590628021,0230054,101

The full details of these calculations are given on the East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Lanark and Hamilton East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lanark and Hamilton East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lanark and Hamilton EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
South LanarkshireAvondale and Stonehouse966Lanarkshire South West258137196021100631
South LanarkshireBothwell and Uddingston9,531Lanarkshire Mid2,2651,921843801,916006,224
South LanarkshireClydesdale East3,555Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East991361115220833002,322
South LanarkshireClydesdale North11,687Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East2,9872,1402505202,200007,629
South LanarkshireClydesdale South583Lanarkshire Mid110127412012700380
South LanarkshireClydesdale West15,164Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East2,9353,12846912903,238009,899
South LanarkshireHamilton North and East9,229Lanarkshire Mid1,8291,870703202,223006,024
South LanarkshireHamilton South11,029Lanarkshire Mid2,1992,543963402,328007,200
South LanarkshireHamilton West and Earnock754Lanarkshire West126171126017600491
South LanarkshireLarkhall14,814Lanarkshire Mid2,4783,6869521903,192009,670
 Total77,312 16,17816,0841,214550016,4440050,470

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lanark and Hamilton East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Motherwell and Wishaw

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Motherwell and Wishaw, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Motherwell and WishawTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North LanarkshireBellshill3,941Lanarkshire North West47091829450962002,424
North LanarkshireMossend and Holytown5,962Lanarkshire North East6451,444725901,445003,665
North LanarkshireMotherwell North10,214Lanarkshire North East9992,7011868102,311006,278
North LanarkshireMotherwell South East and Ravenscraig13,180Lanarkshire Mid1,6572,8702599603,218008,100
North LanarkshireMotherwell West10,647Lanarkshire North East1,5812,476606502,361006,543
North LanarkshireMurdostoun10,048Lanarkshire North East1,4752,00119310002,407006,176
North LanarkshireWishaw14,221Lanarkshire Mid;
Lanarkshire North East
1,6633,4211218803,446008,739
 Total68,213 8,49015,831920534016,1500041,925

The full details of these calculations are given on the Motherwell and Wishaw seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Rutherglen and Hamilton West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Rutherglen and Hamilton West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Rutherglen and Hamilton WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
South LanarkshireBlantyre13,486Lanarkshire West1,3753,4141567303,40101468,565
South LanarkshireCambuslang East11,872Lanarkshire West1,2143,0802575302,9150237,542
South LanarkshireCambuslang West12,033Lanarkshire West1,5932,7686454802,5650247,643
South LanarkshireHamilton North and East3,141Lanarkshire Mid489634121308310151,994
South LanarkshireHamilton South4,178Lanarkshire West648957211609830292,654
South LanarkshireHamilton West and Earnock13,661Lanarkshire West1,7893,08018812403,4700258,676
South LanarkshireRutherglen Central and North10,342Lanarkshire West1,3062,7401026602,2980566,568
South LanarkshireRutherglen South11,386Lanarkshire West1,5282,4277777302,3730537,231
 Total80,099 9,94219,1002,158466018,836037150,873

The full details of these calculations are given on the Rutherglen and Hamilton West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Lanarkshire Mid

The new seat of Lanarkshire Mid is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Lanarkshire Mid
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North LanarkshireMotherwell South East and Ravenscraig13,572Motherwell and Wishaw1,6572,8702599603,218008,100
North LanarkshireWishaw11,897Motherwell and Wishaw1,4112,9031037502,924007,416
South LanarkshireBothwell and Uddingston10,043Lanark and Hamilton East2,2651,921843801,916006,224
South LanarkshireClydesdale South568Lanark and Hamilton East10913639015600413
South LanarkshireClydesdale South3,189East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow60976217510876002,315
South LanarkshireHamilton North and East9,010Lanark and Hamilton East1,7291,868613402,2780115,981
South LanarkshireHamilton North and East3,067Rutherglen and Hamilton West58963621110776042,037
South LanarkshireHamilton South10,441Lanark and Hamilton East2,0732,549853602,4110217,175
South LanarkshireLarkhall14,310Lanark and Hamilton East2,4783,6869521903,192009,670
 Total76,097 12,92017,331728569017,74703649,331

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Lanarkshire Mid.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)