Lancashire West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Lancashire West: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Rosie Cooper  (LAB)
County/Area: Lancashire (North West)
Electorate: 71,897
Turnout: 77.3%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB32,33758.2%
CON21,08338.0%
LIB1,0751.9%
Green6791.2%
OTH3660.7%
UKIP130.0%
LAB Majority11,25420.3%

See overview of other seats in North West.

Lancashire West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Lancashire West constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position6° Left6° Left
National Position1° Nat2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %54%54%52%
British Identity24%28%29%
Good Health44%46%48%
UK Born95%92%88%
Good Education35%37%39%
Good Job47%49%51%
High SEC47%48%51%
Average Age50.648.648.5
ABC1 Class47%50%53%

Lancashire West ranks #288 for "Leave", #442 for "Right" and #327 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Lancashire West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Lancashire West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Lancashire West

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Lancashire West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lancashire West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lancashire WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
West LancashireAshurst4,884Lancashire West8742,675440270063,626
West LancashireAughton and Downholland4,218Lancashire West1,6601,332870430083,130
West LancashireAughton Park2,884Lancashire West1,0761,02633040032,142
West LancashireBickerstaffe1,614Lancashire West639525160800111,199
West LancashireBirch Green3,344Lancashire West4631,970290100092,481
West LancashireBurscough East3,215Lancashire West1,1441,188360150052,388
West LancashireBurscough West3,881Lancashire West1,1311,6271070600122,883
West LancashireDerby5,167Lancashire West1,6421,859163012600473,837
West LancashireDigmoor3,460Lancashire West4392,082130310052,570
West LancashireHalsall1,601Lancashire West6255544010041,188
West LancashireKnowsley4,273Lancashire West1,2751,71011305100223,171
West LancashireMoorside3,004Lancashire West3321,87710070052,231
West LancashireNewburgh1,485Lancashire West67540615050021,103
West LancashireParbold2,941Lancashire West1,261838480340022,183
West LancashireScarisbrick2,984Lancashire West1,245906350250062,217
West LancashireScott4,422Lancashire West1,2521,76911208700633,283
West LancashireSkelmersdale North3,139Lancashire West4691,8543020032,331
West LancashireSkelmersdale South4,992Lancashire West8312,6938106700343,706
West LancashireTanhouse3,867Lancashire West5892,2741030042,871
West LancashireUp Holland4,683Lancashire West1,3002,103530700143,477
West LancashireWrightington3,201Lancashire West1,4197636801200062,376
 Total73,259 20,34132,0311,07106790027154,393

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lancashire West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ribble South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ribble South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ribble SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ChorleyEccleston and Mawdesley4,600Chorley1,9471,22437102800123,330
ChorleyLostock4,887Ribble South2,1691,2383059340073,537
South RibbleBroad Oak3,353Ribble South1,2967853136190082,427
South RibbleBroadfield3,909Ribble South9961,685419350092,829
South RibbleBuckshaw and Worden3,232Ribble South1,37186192750032,339
South RibbleCharnock2,867Ribble South9121,025923820052,074
South RibbleEarnshaw Bridge3,767Ribble South1,2471,25046167700102,727
South RibbleFarington East297Ribble South97105840001215
South RibbleHoole3,165Ribble South1,43065360126140072,290
South RibbleHowick and Priory5,596Ribble South2,1511,1345625413400174,052
South RibbleLeyland Central3,802Ribble South1,1521,3301262311000122,753
South RibbleLongton and Hutton West4,390Ribble South2,043899153591200103,176
South RibbleMiddleforth5,997Ribble South1,7222,2861561412500124,342
South RibbleMoss Side3,224Ribble South1,277936268470032,333
South RibbleNew Longton and Hutton East3,347Ribble South1,5516678343710082,423
South RibbleSeven Stars3,454Ribble South9641,3933980150092,500
South RibbleSt Ambrose3,490Ribble South9631,40912413500122,526
West LancashireHesketh-with-Becconsall3,179Southport1,5407171016110062,300
West LancashireNorth Meols3,219Southport1,3217935315160062,330
West LancashireRufford1,603Lancashire West742306413000951,160
West LancashireTarleton4,372Southport2,08886216107300883,164
 Total75,750 28,97921,5582,0711,3864930034054,827

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ribble South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Lancashire West

The new seat of Lancashire West is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Lancashire West
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
West LancashireAshurst4,469Lancashire West8742,675440270063,626
West LancashireAughton and Downholland4,551Lancashire West1,6601,332870430083,130
West LancashireAughton Park3,159Lancashire West1,0761,02633040032,142
West LancashireBickerstaffe1,644Lancashire West639525160800111,199
West LancashireBirch Green2,693Lancashire West4631,970290100092,481
West LancashireBurscough East3,348Lancashire West1,1441,188360150052,388
West LancashireBurscough West3,752Lancashire West1,1311,6271070600122,883
West LancashireDerby4,798Lancashire West1,6421,859163012600473,837
West LancashireDigmoor2,738Lancashire West4392,082130310052,570
West LancashireHalsall1,689Lancashire West6255544010041,188
West LancashireKnowsley4,466Lancashire West1,2751,71011305100223,171
West LancashireMoorside2,442Lancashire West3321,87710070052,231
West LancashireNewburgh1,632Lancashire West67540615050021,103
West LancashireParbold3,009Lancashire West1,261838480340022,183
West LancashireRufford1,637Ribble South742306413000951,160
West LancashireScarisbrick3,028Lancashire West1,245906350250062,217
West LancashireScott4,189Lancashire West1,2521,76911208700633,283
West LancashireSkelmersdale North2,837Lancashire West4691,8543020032,331
West LancashireSkelmersdale South4,546Lancashire West8312,6938106700343,706
West LancashireTanhouse3,176Lancashire West5892,2741030042,871
West LancashireUp Holland4,820Lancashire West1,3002,103530700143,477
West LancashireWrightington3,274Lancashire West1,4197636801200062,376
 Total71,897 21,08332,3371,075136790036655,553

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Lancashire West.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)