Lancaster and Morecambe: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Lancaster and Morecambe: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (changed seat)  (LAB)
County/Area: Lancashire (North West)
Electorate: 74,361
Turnout: 75.4%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB29,11751.9%
CON22,67140.4%
LIB2,0153.6%
UKIP1,2842.3%
Green9791.7%
LAB Majority6,44611.5%

See overview of other seats in North West.

Lancaster and Morecambe : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Lancaster and Morecambe constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position6° Left
National Position2° Nat2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %52%54%52%
British Identity25%28%29%
Good Health49%46%48%
UK Born95%92%88%
Good Education36%37%39%
Good Job52%49%51%
High SEC53%48%51%
Average Age49.448.648.5
ABC1 Class55%50%53%

Lancaster and Morecambe ranks #357 for "Leave", #347 for "Right" and #307 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Lancaster and Morecambe: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Lancaster and Morecambe been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Lancaster and Morecambe

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Lancaster and Fleetwood

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lancaster and Fleetwood, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lancaster and FleetwoodTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
LancasterBulk5,648Lancaster and Morecambe1,0432,5975801690003,867
LancasterCastle3,810Lancaster and Morecambe7781,6229301150002,608
LancasterEllel3,970Lancashire North1,5441,070360670002,717
LancasterJohn O'Gaunt5,588Lancaster and Morecambe1,3122,22816301230003,826
LancasterLower Lune Valley3,441Lancashire North1,3627382350210002,356
LancasterMarsh3,576Lancaster and Morecambe7451,526860930002,450
LancasterScotforth East3,360Lancaster and Morecambe8731,1902190180002,300
LancasterScotforth West5,948Lancaster and Morecambe1,4192,33417901400004,072
LancasterUniversity and Scotforth Rural3,983Lancashire North1,1311,476780410002,726
WyreMount3,654Blackpool North and Fleetwood8971,6023000002,502
WyrePark3,905Blackpool North and Fleetwood9881,6840000002,672
WyrePharos4,050Blackpool North and Fleetwood8741,8951020002,772
WyrePilling1,779Lancashire North8363802000001,218
WyrePreesall4,405Lancashire North1,7701,23312010003,016
WyreRossall4,912Blackpool North and Fleetwood1,4191,9392020003,362
WyreWarren3,592Blackpool North and Fleetwood9391,5201000002,460
WyreWyresdale1,551Lancashire North7493092010001,061
 Total67,172 18,67925,3431,170079300045,985

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lancaster and Fleetwood seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Morecambe and Lunesdale

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Morecambe and Lunesdale, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Morecambe and LunesdaleTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
LancasterBare5,140Lancaster and Morecambe1,9431,202208132270003,512
LancasterBolton and Slyne5,576Lancaster and Morecambe2,4661,06922818280003,809
LancasterCarnforth and Millhead4,631Lancashire North1,6111,4075438530003,163
LancasterHalton-with-Aughton1,741Lancashire North733358661310001,189
LancasterHarbour5,933Lancaster and Morecambe1,4372,31277178480004,052
LancasterHeysham Central3,425Lancaster and Morecambe1,0721,149882910002,339
LancasterHeysham North3,637Lancaster and Morecambe9971,24780126350002,485
LancasterHeysham South4,942Lancaster and Morecambe1,7351,4504114360003,375
LancasterKellet1,611Lancashire North826209503120001,100
LancasterOverton1,756Lancaster and Morecambe696434254050001,200
LancasterPoulton4,223Lancaster and Morecambe1,2261,46170102250002,884
LancasterSilverdale1,406Lancashire North543198201116000959
LancasterSkerton East5,037Lancaster and Morecambe1,1292,04715423870003,440
LancasterSkerton West5,347Lancaster and Morecambe1,2662,13261148440003,651
LancasterTorrisholme3,369Lancaster and Morecambe1,14690911012880002,301
LancasterUpper Lune Valley1,810Lancashire North877284520240001,237
LancasterWarton1,555Lancashire North682299584190001,062
LancasterWestgate5,700Lancaster and Morecambe1,3882,2087521770003,895
 Total66,839 21,77320,3751,6981,33147600045,653

The full details of these calculations are given on the Morecambe and Lunesdale seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Lancaster and Morecambe

The new seat of Lancaster and Morecambe is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Lancaster and Morecambe
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
LancasterBare5,392Morecambe and Lunesdale1,9431,202208132270003,512
LancasterBolton and Slyne5,814Morecambe and Lunesdale2,4661,06922818280003,809
LancasterBulk4,592Lancaster and Fleetwood1,0432,5975801690003,867
LancasterCastle3,455Lancaster and Fleetwood7781,6229301150002,608
LancasterHarbour4,759Morecambe and Lunesdale1,4372,31277178480004,052
LancasterHeysham Central3,268Morecambe and Lunesdale1,0721,149882910002,339
LancasterHeysham North3,058Morecambe and Lunesdale9971,24780126350002,485
LancasterHeysham South4,790Morecambe and Lunesdale1,7351,4504114360003,375
LancasterJohn O'Gaunt4,796Lancaster and Fleetwood1,3122,22816301230003,826
LancasterMarsh3,276Lancaster and Fleetwood7451,526860930002,450
LancasterOverton1,672Morecambe and Lunesdale696434254050001,200
LancasterPoulton3,255Morecambe and Lunesdale1,2261,46170102250002,884
LancasterScotforth East3,221Lancaster and Fleetwood8731,1902190180002,300
LancasterScotforth West4,868Lancaster and Fleetwood1,4192,33417901400004,072
LancasterSkerton East4,520Morecambe and Lunesdale1,1292,04715423870003,440
LancasterSkerton West4,879Morecambe and Lunesdale1,2662,13261148440003,651
LancasterTorrisholme3,535Morecambe and Lunesdale1,14690911012880002,301
LancasterWestgate5,211Morecambe and Lunesdale1,3882,2087521770003,895
 Total74,361 22,67129,1172,0151,28497900056,066

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Lancaster and Morecambe.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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