Leicestershire North West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Leicestershire North West: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Andrew Bridgen  (CON)
County/Area: Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 71,377
Turnout: 75.0%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON31,15058.2%
LAB17,86633.4%
LIB3,4166.4%
Green1,1022.1%
CON Majority13,28424.8%

See overview of other seats in East Midlands.

Leicestershire North West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Leicestershire North West constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position7° Right3° Right
National Position12° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %61%59%52%
British Identity39%27%29%
Good Health52%45%48%
UK Born83%91%88%
Good Education58%36%39%
Good Job63%48%51%
High SEC56%47%51%
Average Age43.349.148.5
ABC1 Class69%50%53%

Leicestershire North West ranks #127 for "Leave", #161 for "Right" and #82 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Leicestershire North West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Leicestershire North West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Leicestershire North West

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Leicestershire North West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Leicestershire North West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Leicestershire North WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North West LeicestershireAppleby1,813Leicestershire North West937311220180001,288
North West LeicestershireAshby Castle1,868Leicestershire North West967311380110001,327
North West LeicestershireAshby Holywell2,116Leicestershire North West858523920310001,504
North West LeicestershireAshby Ivanhoe2,037Leicestershire North West887510310190001,447
North West LeicestershireAshby Money Hill1,951Leicestershire North West873424440450001,386
North West LeicestershireAshby Willesley2,110Leicestershire North West873571370170001,498
North West LeicestershireAshby Woulds2,075Leicestershire North West92750139070001,474
North West LeicestershireBardon2,092Leicestershire North West7444462790170001,486
North West LeicestershireBlackfordby1,884Leicestershire North West70259734050001,338
North West LeicestershireBroom Leys2,001Leicestershire North West6125562430110001,422
North West LeicestershireCastle Donington Castle2,210Leicestershire North West998470480540001,570
North West LeicestershireCastle Donington Central1,892Leicestershire North West1,006248200710001,345
North West LeicestershireCastle Donington Park1,054Leicestershire North West5032149023000749
North West LeicestershireCastle Rock1,953Leicestershire North West6503903370100001,387
North West LeicestershireCoalville East2,222Leicestershire North West1,0682212540350001,578
North West LeicestershireCoalville West2,051Leicestershire North West6925951270430001,457
North West LeicestershireDaleacre Hill1,812Leicestershire North West784391600520001,287
North West LeicestershireEllistown and Battleflat2,115Leicestershire North West877535560350001,503
North West LeicestershireGreenhill2,433Leicestershire North West6658282010350001,729
North West LeicestershireHermitage2,008Leicestershire North West6975721390180001,426
North West LeicestershireHolly Hayes2,051Leicestershire North West762595870140001,458
North West LeicestershireHugglescote St John's1,533Leicestershire North West7651901110230001,089
North West LeicestershireHugglescote St Mary's2,029Leicestershire North West6456501240210001,440
North West LeicestershireIbstock East1,976Leicestershire North West7574911180380001,404
North West LeicestershireIbstock West1,948Leicestershire North West795502510350001,383
North West LeicestershireKegworth1,769Leicestershire North West7343665601010001,257
North West LeicestershireLong Whatton and Diseworth1,994Leicestershire North West1,028331430140001,416
North West LeicestershireMeasham North2,065Leicestershire North West920475360360001,467
North West LeicestershireMeasham South2,134Leicestershire North West705761350150001,516
North West LeicestershireOakthorpe and Donisthorpe2,129Leicestershire North West897561410140001,513
North West LeicestershireRavenstone and Packington2,036Leicestershire North West968417360250001,446
North West LeicestershireSence Valley1,826Leicestershire North West777442650130001,297
North West LeicestershireSnibston North1,642Leicestershire North West6074301180100001,165
North West LeicestershireSnibston South2,005Leicestershire North West6706061100380001,424
North West LeicestershireThornborough2,071Leicestershire North West869497590460001,471
North West LeicestershireThringstone1,995Leicestershire North West741593530300001,417
North West LeicestershireValley2,183Leicestershire North West1,0333861020300001,551
North West LeicestershireWorthington and Breedon2,278Leicestershire North West1,157359610420001,619
 Total75,361 31,15017,8663,41601,10200053,534

The full details of these calculations are given on the Leicestershire North West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Leicestershire North West

The new seat of Leicestershire North West is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Leicestershire North West
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North West LeicestershireAppleby1,731Leicestershire North West937311220180001,288
North West LeicestershireAshby Castle2,101Leicestershire North West967311380110001,327
North West LeicestershireAshby Holywell1,995Leicestershire North West858523920310001,504
North West LeicestershireAshby Ivanhoe1,941Leicestershire North West887510310190001,447
North West LeicestershireAshby Money Hill1,951Leicestershire North West873424440450001,386
North West LeicestershireAshby Willesley1,977Leicestershire North West873571370170001,498
North West LeicestershireAshby Woulds1,866Leicestershire North West92750139070001,474
North West LeicestershireBardon1,724Leicestershire North West7444462790170001,486
North West LeicestershireBlackfordby1,987Leicestershire North West70259734050001,338
North West LeicestershireBroom Leys2,056Leicestershire North West6125562430110001,422
North West LeicestershireCastle Donington Castle2,013Leicestershire North West998470480540001,570
North West LeicestershireCastle Donington Central1,905Leicestershire North West1,006248200710001,345
North West LeicestershireCastle Donington Park1,236Leicestershire North West5032149023000749
North West LeicestershireCastle Rock1,767Leicestershire North West6503903370100001,387
North West LeicestershireCoalville East2,026Leicestershire North West1,0682212540350001,578
North West LeicestershireCoalville West1,720Leicestershire North West6925951270430001,457
North West LeicestershireDaleacre Hill1,666Leicestershire North West784391600520001,287
North West LeicestershireEllistown and Battleflat1,906Leicestershire North West877535560350001,503
North West LeicestershireGreenhill1,994Leicestershire North West6658282010350001,729
North West LeicestershireHermitage1,767Leicestershire North West6975721390180001,426
North West LeicestershireHolly Hayes1,986Leicestershire North West762595870140001,458
North West LeicestershireHugglescote St John's1,385Leicestershire North West7651901110230001,089
North West LeicestershireHugglescote St Mary's1,901Leicestershire North West6456501240210001,440
North West LeicestershireIbstock East1,866Leicestershire North West7574911180380001,404
North West LeicestershireIbstock West1,801Leicestershire North West795502510350001,383
North West LeicestershireKegworth1,709Leicestershire North West7343665601010001,257
North West LeicestershireLong Whatton and Diseworth2,017Leicestershire North West1,028331430140001,416
North West LeicestershireMeasham North1,852Leicestershire North West920475360360001,467
North West LeicestershireMeasham South1,829Leicestershire North West705761350150001,516
North West LeicestershireOakthorpe and Donisthorpe1,943Leicestershire North West897561410140001,513
North West LeicestershireRavenstone and Packington1,936Leicestershire North West968417360250001,446
North West LeicestershireSence Valley2,191Leicestershire North West777442650130001,297
North West LeicestershireSnibston North1,673Leicestershire North West6074301180100001,165
North West LeicestershireSnibston South1,705Leicestershire North West6706061100380001,424
North West LeicestershireThornborough1,996Leicestershire North West869497590460001,471
North West LeicestershireThringstone1,884Leicestershire North West741593530300001,417
North West LeicestershireValley2,123Leicestershire North West1,0333861020300001,551
North West LeicestershireWorthington and Breedon2,251Leicestershire North West1,157359610420001,619
 Total71,377 31,15017,8663,41601,10200053,534

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Leicestershire North West.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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