Leicestershire South: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Leicestershire South: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Alberto Costa  (CON)
County/Area: Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 71,583
Turnout: 73.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON36,46669.2%
LAB11,11621.1%
LIB2,3324.4%
UKIP1,8593.5%
Green8561.6%
OTH400.1%
CON Majority25,35048.1%

See overview of other seats in East Midlands.

Leicestershire South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Leicestershire South constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position15° Right3° Right
National Position14° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %59%59%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health49%45%48%
UK Born96%91%88%
Good Education39%36%39%
Good Job55%48%51%
High SEC58%47%51%
Average Age50.649.148.5
ABC1 Class59%50%53%

Leicestershire South ranks #164 for "Leave", #32 for "Right" and #54 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Leicestershire South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Leicestershire South been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Leicestershire South

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Charnwood

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Charnwood, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: CharnwoodTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BlabyEllis4,080Leicestershire South2,00076073182200112,884
BlabyFairestone3,888Leicestershire South1,9026876764200082,748
BlabyForest5,860Leicestershire South3,41458258393300164,142
BlabyMuxloe3,462Leicestershire South2,084270599190052,446
CharnwoodAnstey5,358Charnwood1,8051,21326628520000163,785
CharnwoodBirstall Wanlip4,871Charnwood1,6971,26738115760083,444
CharnwoodBirstall Watermead5,466Charnwood2,3531,266114734800103,864
CharnwoodEast Goscote2,376Rutland and Melton8966348445500421,679
CharnwoodForest Bradgate2,809Charnwood1,480441461130041,985
CharnwoodMountsorrel5,647Charnwood2,2471,1649726920000133,990
CharnwoodQueniborough2,480Rutland and Melton1,323355431780071,753
CharnwoodRothley and Thurcaston5,168Charnwood2,570827241823900113,653
CharnwoodSyston East5,156Charnwood2,0361,224225856100133,644
CharnwoodSyston West5,416Charnwood2,1831,53239134700153,829
CharnwoodThurmaston7,965Charnwood2,6602,704511076200465,630
CharnwoodWreake Villages2,459Charnwood1,388292311590031,738
Hinckley and BosworthGroby5,610Charnwood1,2801,75847023712400953,964
 Total78,071 33,31816,9762,0521,4731,0360032355,178

The full details of these calculations are given on the Charnwood seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Leicestershire South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Leicestershire South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Leicestershire SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BlabyBlaby South3,710Leicestershire South1,4845304101391020002,665
BlabyCosby with South Whetstone3,726Leicestershire South1,8057069247270002,677
BlabyCountesthorpe5,213Leicestershire South2,4616723831191110003,746
BlabyCroft Hill1,689Leicestershire South8582943121100001,214
BlabyEnderby and St John's3,684Leicestershire South1,32184637401430002,648
BlabyMillfield2,007Leicester West4009553023340001,442
BlabyNarborough and Littlethorpe4,168Leicestershire South2,1506656949620002,995
BlabyNormanton1,976Leicestershire South1,0043502315280001,420
BlabyNorth Whetstone4,155Leicestershire South1,94984440107460002,986
BlabyPastures3,725Leicestershire South1,9495877022480002,676
BlabyRavenhurst and Fosse5,679Leicester West9922,762111941220004,081
BlabySaxondale5,987Leicestershire South2,1339246993821630004,301
BlabyStanton and Flamville5,872Leicestershire South3,22376977114370004,220
BlabyWinstanley5,558Leicester West1,7801,9746286910003,993
HarboroughBroughton Astley-Astley1,817Leicestershire South1,072170243640001,306
HarboroughBroughton Astley-Broughton2,286Leicestershire South1,2503363111150001,643
HarboroughBroughton Astley-Primethorpe1,360Leicestershire South664263182013000978
HarboroughBroughton Astley-Sutton1,582Leicestershire South824271823110001,137
HarboroughDunton1,696Leicestershire South992183219140001,219
HarboroughLutterworth Brookfield1,813Daventry and Lutterworth969283309110001,302
HarboroughLutterworth Orchard1,774Daventry and Lutterworth78531529135110001,275
HarboroughLutterworth Springs1,797Daventry and Lutterworth74136538122250001,291
HarboroughLutterworth Swift1,955Daventry and Lutterworth9244241823150001,404
HarboroughMisterton2,019Daventry and Lutterworth1,1402681210210001,451
HarboroughPeatling1,855Leicestershire South9852013199170001,333
HarboroughUllesthorpe1,789Leicestershire South94220611115110001,285
 Total78,892 34,79716,1632,4052,2311,09200056,688

The full details of these calculations are given on the Leicestershire South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Leicestershire South

The new seat of Leicestershire South is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Leicestershire South
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BlabyBlaby South3,672Leicestershire South1,4845304101391020002,665
BlabyCosby with South Whetstone3,720Leicestershire South1,8057069247270002,677
BlabyCountesthorpe5,933Leicestershire South2,4616723831191110003,746
BlabyCroft Hill1,733Leicestershire South8582943121100001,214
BlabyEllis4,030Charnwood2,00076073182200112,884
BlabyEnderby and St John's3,574Leicestershire South1,32184637401430002,648
BlabyFairestone3,713Charnwood1,9026876764200082,748
BlabyForest5,324Charnwood3,41458258393300164,142
BlabyMuxloe3,362Charnwood2,084270599190052,446
BlabyNarborough and Littlethorpe3,945Leicestershire South2,1506656949620002,995
BlabyNormanton2,030Leicestershire South1,0043502315280001,420
BlabyNorth Whetstone3,817Leicestershire South1,94984440107460002,986
BlabyPastures3,755Leicestershire South1,9495877022480002,676
BlabySaxondale5,494Leicestershire South2,1339246993821630004,301
BlabyStanton and Flamville6,021Leicestershire South3,22376977114370004,220
HarboroughBroughton Astley-Astley1,546Leicestershire South1,072170243640001,306
HarboroughBroughton Astley-Broughton2,051Leicestershire South1,2503363111150001,643
HarboroughBroughton Astley-Primethorpe1,299Leicestershire South664263182013000978
HarboroughBroughton Astley-Sutton1,448Leicestershire South824271823110001,137
HarboroughDunton1,688Leicestershire South992183219140001,219
HarboroughPeatling1,826Leicestershire South9852013199170001,333
HarboroughUllesthorpe1,602Leicestershire South94220611115110001,285
 Total71,583 36,46611,1162,3321,859856004052,669

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Leicestershire South.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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