Letchworth and Royston: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Letchworth and Royston: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Oliver Heald  (CON)
County/Area: Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate: 76,505
Turnout: 77.2%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON33,09956.1%
LAB16,80428.5%
LIB6,18410.5%
Green2,9605.0%
CON Majority16,29527.6%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Letchworth and Royston : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Letchworth and Royston constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position8° Right8° Right
National Position5° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %50%57%52%
British Identity42%27%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born66%89%88%
Good Education42%37%39%
Good Job46%53%51%
High SEC37%53%51%
Average Age41.449.448.5
ABC1 Class51%55%53%

Letchworth and Royston ranks #396 for "Leave", #132 for "Right" and #241 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Letchworth and Royston: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Letchworth and Royston been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Letchworth and Royston

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Cambridgeshire South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Cambridgeshire South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Cambridgeshire SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CambridgeQueen Edith's7,069Cambridge1,7642,0491,40501650005,383
South CambridgeshireBar Hill3,921Cambridgeshire South1,6628114460670002,986
South CambridgeshireBarton1,949Cambridgeshire South8703841690610001,484
South CambridgeshireBassingbourn3,944Letchworth and Royston1,80876528401470003,004
South CambridgeshireBourn8,019Cambridgeshire South3,3192,07753401770006,107
South CambridgeshireCaldecote1,896Cambridgeshire South636247552090001,444
South CambridgeshireComberton1,834Cambridgeshire South8133122450260001,396
South CambridgeshireCottenham6,262Cambridgeshire South2,5841,25977801490004,770
South CambridgeshireDuxford2,176Cambridgeshire South9744012510310001,657
South CambridgeshireFowlmere and Foxton1,880Cambridgeshire South8244301410360001,431
South CambridgeshireGamlingay3,823Cambridgeshire South1,4614849450210002,911
South CambridgeshireGirton3,536Cambridgeshire South1,31080846201120002,692
South CambridgeshireHardwick2,085Cambridgeshire South8483803400190001,587
South CambridgeshireHarston and Hauxton1,874Cambridgeshire South6423004690150001,426
South CambridgeshireHaslingfield and The Eversdens2,061Cambridgeshire South5924624790360001,569
South CambridgeshireLongstanton2,067Cambridgeshire South1,052334179090001,574
South CambridgeshireMelbourn4,366Letchworth and Royston1,4087211,1750210003,325
South CambridgeshireMeldreth1,972Letchworth and Royston6023065590340001,501
South CambridgeshireOrwell and Barrington1,811Cambridgeshire South7072713810200001,379
South CambridgeshirePapworth and Elsworth3,799Cambridgeshire South1,6768013630530002,893
South CambridgeshireSawston5,569Cambridgeshire South2,3771,40535901000004,241
South CambridgeshireSwavesey1,913Cambridgeshire South9073132050330001,458
South CambridgeshireThe Abingtons1,777Cambridgeshire South851389112010001,353
South CambridgeshireThe Mordens1,873Letchworth and Royston8144771240110001,426
South CambridgeshireThe Shelfords and Stapleford5,681Cambridgeshire South2,1481,16986501450004,327
South CambridgeshireWhittlesford2,101Cambridgeshire South9823232820130001,600
 Total85,258 33,63117,67812,10401,51100064,924

The full details of these calculations are given on the Cambridgeshire South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Hertfordshire North East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hertfordshire North East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Hertfordshire North EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East HertfordshireBraughing2,032Letchworth and Royston1,0432727101010001,487
East HertfordshireBuntingford4,291Letchworth and Royston2,11774512101560003,139
East HertfordshireHertford Rural North1,826Welwyn Hatfield1,009215440680001,336
East HertfordshireHertford Rural South2,024Welwyn Hatfield1,0323181070250001,482
East HertfordshireLittle Hadham1,973Letchworth and Royston1,0761933701380001,444
East HertfordshireMundens and Cottered1,983Letchworth and Royston1,148246280290001,451
East HertfordshirePuckeridge2,110Letchworth and Royston1,072308720910001,543
East HertfordshireThundridge and Standon2,457Letchworth and Royston1,343355680320001,798
East HertfordshireWalkern2,204Stevenage1,168374260450001,613
East HertfordshireWatton-at-Stone1,857Stevenage912308580800001,358
North HertfordshireArbury2,172Letchworth and Royston1,07122815901310001,589
North HertfordshireBaldock East2,300Letchworth and Royston8543184420690001,683
North HertfordshireBaldock Town5,870Letchworth and Royston2,4601,33224602570004,295
North HertfordshireErmine2,076Letchworth and Royston1,0782216001610001,520
North HertfordshireLetchworth East4,402Letchworth and Royston1,2901,54216902190003,220
North HertfordshireLetchworth Grange5,818Letchworth and Royston2,0181,68834502050004,256
North HertfordshireLetchworth South East5,824Letchworth and Royston2,2391,65817901860004,262
North HertfordshireLetchworth South West6,266Letchworth and Royston2,6021,21046603060004,584
North HertfordshireLetchworth Wilbury4,219Letchworth and Royston1,2871,5419901590003,086
North HertfordshireRoyston Heath4,160Letchworth and Royston1,71378040001500003,043
North HertfordshireRoyston Meridian4,289Letchworth and Royston1,93767537301530003,138
North HertfordshireRoyston Palace4,151Letchworth and Royston1,5041,07632001380003,038
North HertfordshireWeston and Sandon1,662Letchworth and Royston6151473870660001,215
 Total75,966 32,58815,7504,27702,96500055,580

The full details of these calculations are given on the Hertfordshire North East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Letchworth and Royston

The new seat of Letchworth and Royston is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Letchworth and Royston
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East HertfordshireBraughing2,061Hertfordshire North East1,0432727101010001,487
East HertfordshireBuntingford4,289Hertfordshire North East2,11774512101560003,139
East HertfordshireLittle Hadham1,857Hertfordshire North East1,0761933701380001,444
East HertfordshireMundens and Cottered1,927Hertfordshire North East1,148246280290001,451
East HertfordshirePuckeridge2,032Hertfordshire North East1,072308720910001,543
East HertfordshireThundridge and Standon2,180Hertfordshire North East1,343355680320001,798
North HertfordshireArbury2,045Hertfordshire North East1,07122815901310001,589
North HertfordshireBaldock East2,251Hertfordshire North East8543184420690001,683
North HertfordshireBaldock Town5,647Hertfordshire North East2,4601,33224602570004,295
North HertfordshireErmine1,949Hertfordshire North East1,0782216001610001,520
North HertfordshireLetchworth East4,222Hertfordshire North East1,2901,54216902190003,220
North HertfordshireLetchworth Grange5,492Hertfordshire North East2,0181,68834502050004,256
North HertfordshireLetchworth South East5,415Hertfordshire North East2,2391,65817901860004,262
North HertfordshireLetchworth South West5,910Hertfordshire North East2,6021,21046603060004,584
North HertfordshireLetchworth Wilbury3,905Hertfordshire North East1,2871,5419901590003,086
North HertfordshireRoyston Heath4,166Hertfordshire North East1,71378040001500003,043
North HertfordshireRoyston Meridian4,078Hertfordshire North East1,93767537301530003,138
North HertfordshireRoyston Palace3,964Hertfordshire North East1,5041,07632001380003,038
North HertfordshireWeston and Sandon1,637Hertfordshire North East6151473870660001,215
South CambridgeshireBassingbourn3,364Cambridgeshire South1,80876528401470003,004
South CambridgeshireMelbourn4,170Cambridgeshire South1,4087211,1750210003,325
South CambridgeshireMeldreth2,056Cambridgeshire South6023065590340001,501
South CambridgeshireThe Mordens1,888Cambridgeshire South8144771240110001,426
 Total76,505 33,09916,8046,18402,96000059,047

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Letchworth and Royston.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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