Lichfield: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Lichfield: Overview

Projection: CON seat

Implied MP at 2017:Michael Fabricant  (CON)
County/Area:Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:76,616
Turnout:72.1%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON34,79963.0%
LAB16,26229.4%
LIB2,7124.9%
Green1,4882.7%
CON Majority18,53733.5%

See overview of other seats in West Midlands.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Lichfield been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Lichfield: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Lichfield

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Lichfield

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lichfield, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: LichfieldTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East StaffordshireBagots2,155Lichfield1,192245420310001,510
East StaffordshireNeedwood4,441Lichfield2,12675212001760003,174
East StaffordshireYoxall2,159Lichfield1,249242440300001,565
LichfieldAlrewas and Fradley4,510Lichfield2,3678361300760003,409
LichfieldArmitage with Handsacre5,693Lichfield2,3201,1921210770003,710
LichfieldBoley Park3,447Lichfield1,8275221100570002,516
LichfieldBoney Hay and Central5,065Lichfield2,0221,5031360820003,743
LichfieldChadsmead3,304Lichfield1,3359913200700002,716
LichfieldChase Terrace3,717Lichfield1,4761,1381130620002,789
LichfieldChasetown2,640Lichfield1,037945810500002,113
LichfieldColton and The Ridwares1,768Lichfield952207370240001,220
LichfieldCurborough3,201Lichfield1,3391,0831110640002,597
LichfieldHammerwich with Wall3,111Lichfield1,446581680460002,141
LichfieldHighfield3,652Lichfield1,957623820550002,717
LichfieldLeomansley4,879Lichfield2,5757414380940003,848
LichfieldLongdon1,694Lichfield925213310250001,194
LichfieldSt Johns4,407Lichfield2,2276883290780003,322
LichfieldStowe4,725Lichfield2,0511,13815402030003,546
LichfieldSummerfield and All Saints4,850Lichfield2,0411,4491270760003,693
LichfieldWhittington and Streethay2,848Tamworth1,556346600410002,003
 Total72,266 34,02015,4352,65401,41700053,526

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lichfield seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Stafford

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Stafford, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: StaffordTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
South StaffordshirePenkridge North East and Acton Trussell2,949Stafford1,463485230230001,994
South StaffordshirePenkridge South East3,377Stafford1,735703370300002,505
South StaffordshirePenkridge West1,758Stafford782332170140001,145
South StaffordshireWheaton Aston, Bishopswood and Lapley3,191Stafford1,647536240240002,231
StaffordBaswich4,993Stafford2,1671,1711160900003,544
StaffordCommon2,629Stafford9151,1701040900002,279
StaffordCoton4,080Stafford1,7532,1701270690004,119
StaffordDoxey and Castletown2,334Stafford858805830760001,822
StaffordForebridge2,071Stafford815886940770001,872
StaffordHaywood and Hixon5,048Lichfield2,1811,11511101120003,519
StaffordHighfields and Western Downs4,769Stafford1,5732,06912001170003,879
StaffordHolmcroft5,334Stafford2,0881,54913201050003,874
StaffordLittleworth4,282Stafford1,5721,54415101240003,391
StaffordManor5,150Stafford1,7412,040950620003,938
StaffordMilford2,438Stafford1,180458370250001,700
StaffordMilwich1,488Stafford882272260320001,212
StaffordPenkside2,411Stafford8501,219380310002,138
StaffordRowley2,364Stafford999592620500001,703
StaffordSeighford and Church Eaton2,550Stafford1,250459240220001,755
StaffordWeeping Cross and Wildwood4,681Stafford1,9741,1201200930003,307
 Total67,897 28,42520,6951,54101,26600051,927

The full details of these calculations are given on the Stafford seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Tamworth

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Tamworth, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: TamworthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
LichfieldBourne Vale1,762Tamworth1,12521648000001,389
LichfieldFazeley3,458Tamworth1,35379784000002,234
LichfieldHammerwich with Wall312Lichfield15458700000219
LichfieldLittle Aston and Stonnall3,977Tamworth1,97036254000002,386
LichfieldMease Valley1,535Tamworth7701592200000951
LichfieldShenstone1,890Tamworth91123833000001,182
LichfieldWhittington and Streethay1,146Tamworth6481522300000823
TamworthAmington5,756Tamworth2,2051,556153000003,914
TamworthBelgrave5,666Tamworth2,0741,533172000003,779
TamworthBolehall5,680Tamworth1,9271,632158000003,717
TamworthCastle5,443Tamworth2,1401,321150000003,611
TamworthGlascote5,519Tamworth1,9961,795169000003,960
TamworthMercian5,179Tamworth1,8731,255152000003,280
TamworthSpital5,372Tamworth2,0601,187245000003,492
TamworthStonydelph5,608Tamworth2,2781,433167000003,878
TamworthTrinity5,843Tamworth2,4351,092149000003,676
TamworthWilnecote6,623Tamworth2,8281,614173000004,615
 Total70,769 28,74716,4001,9590000047,106

The full details of these calculations are given on the Tamworth seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Lichfield

The new seat of Lichfield is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Lichfield
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East StaffordshireBagots2,100Lichfield1,192245420310001,510
East StaffordshireNeedwood4,414Lichfield2,12675212001760003,174
East StaffordshireYoxall2,177Lichfield1,249242440300001,565
LichfieldAlrewas and Fradley4,739Lichfield2,3678361300760003,409
LichfieldArmitage with Handsacre5,159Lichfield2,3201,1921210770003,710
LichfieldBoley Park3,499Lichfield1,8275221100570002,516
LichfieldBoney Hay and Central5,206Lichfield2,0221,5031360820003,743
LichfieldChadsmead3,779Lichfield1,3359913200700002,716
LichfieldChase Terrace3,878Lichfield1,4761,1381130620002,789
LichfieldChasetown2,938Lichfield1,037945810500002,113
LichfieldColton and The Ridwares1,696Lichfield952207370240001,220
LichfieldCurborough3,611Lichfield1,3391,0831110640002,597
LichfieldHammerwich with Wall2,977Lichfield1,446581680460002,141
LichfieldHammerwich with Wall331Tamworth15458700000219
LichfieldHighfield3,778Lichfield1,957623820550002,717
LichfieldLeomansley5,351Lichfield2,5757414380940003,848
LichfieldLongdon1,660Lichfield925213310250001,194
LichfieldSt Johns4,618Lichfield2,2276883290780003,322
LichfieldStowe4,932Lichfield2,0511,13815402030003,546
LichfieldSummerfield and All Saints5,135Lichfield2,0411,4491270760003,693
StaffordHaywood and Hixon4,638Stafford2,1811,11511101120003,519
 Total76,616 34,79916,2622,71201,48800055,261

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Lichfield. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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