Louth and Horncastle: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Louth and Horncastle: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Victoria Atkins  (CON)
County/Area: Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 75,022
Turnout: 70.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON33,89164.0%
LAB14,12726.7%
UKIP2,4724.7%
LIB1,9963.8%
OTH4960.9%
CON Majority19,76437.3%

See overview of other seats in East Midlands.

Louth and Horncastle : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Louth and Horncastle constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position11° Right3° Right
National Position18° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %67%59%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health48%45%48%
UK Born88%91%88%
Good Education44%36%39%
Good Job51%48%51%
High SEC43%47%51%
Average Age43.849.148.5
ABC1 Class52%50%53%

Louth and Horncastle ranks #39 for "Leave", #80 for "Right" and #16 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Louth and Horncastle: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Louth and Horncastle been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Louth and Horncastle

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Boston and Skegness

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Boston and Skegness, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Boston and SkegnessTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BostonCoastal2,610Boston and Skegness1,2892042011630041,636
BostonFenside3,225Boston and Skegness1,092672192121600122,023
BostonFishtoft4,577Boston and Skegness1,810779401575600292,871
BostonFive Village2,626Boston and Skegness1,165341991340081,648
BostonKirton and Frampton4,479Boston and Skegness1,964613461441100302,808
BostonOld Leake and Wrangle2,304Boston and Skegness1,1041791214050061,446
BostonSkirbeck5,028Boston and Skegness1,4741,277232711000073,152
BostonSt Thomas'1,638Boston and Skegness60332321511100181,027
BostonStaniland2,576Boston and Skegness91451426144100081,616
BostonStation1,778Boston and Skegness5693509137450041,114
BostonSwineshead and Holland Fen2,523Boston and Skegness1,23420416109400141,581
BostonTrinity3,245Boston and Skegness1,275569411241500112,035
BostonWest1,145Boston and Skegness50315911431001718
BostonWitham2,831Boston and Skegness98455853147240091,775
BostonWyberton2,916Boston and Skegness1,208449321021000281,829
East LindseyBurgh le Marsh1,593Boston and Skegness665205199110008998
East LindseyCroft1,583Boston and Skegness818118103040012992
East LindseyFriskney1,543Boston and Skegness72712218915002965
East LindseyHalton Holegate337Louth and Horncastle155365110003210
East LindseyIngoldmells1,607Boston and Skegness532384873200101,009
East LindseyScarbrough and Seacroft5,936Boston and Skegness2,2549591243254200173,721
East LindseySibsey and Stickney3,338Boston and Skegness1,6112534317160092,093
East LindseySt Clement's3,276Boston and Skegness1,167613551832400112,053
East LindseyWainfleet1,725Boston and Skegness694286305770081,082
East LindseyWinthorpe3,951Boston and Skegness1,4575357928910300142,477
 Total68,390 27,26810,7027693,3095480028342,879

The full details of these calculations are given on the Boston and Skegness seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Louth and Horncastle

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Louth and Horncastle, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Louth and HorncastleTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East LindseyAlford3,719Louth and Horncastle1,5727479350000222,484
East LindseyBinbrook1,987Louth and Horncastle96133651800071,327
East LindseyChapel St Leonards3,785Louth and Horncastle1,36596627141000312,530
East LindseyConingsby and Mareham7,294Louth and Horncastle3,507693151463000584,872
East LindseyFulstow1,962Louth and Horncastle984251234900031,310
East LindseyGrimoldby1,778Louth and Horncastle7942705449000201,187
East LindseyHagworthingham1,874Louth and Horncastle1,027109416800061,251
East LindseyHalton Holegate1,763Louth and Horncastle8532054162000171,178
East LindseyHolton le Clay and North Thoresby4,007Louth and Horncastle1,8346996643000342,676
East LindseyHorncastle5,944Louth and Horncastle2,213909655156000383,971
East LindseyLegbourne1,878Louth and Horncastle1,022141325500041,254
East LindseyMablethorpe6,429Louth and Horncastle1,8951,825100447000284,295
East LindseyMarshchapel and Somercotes3,695Louth and Horncastle1,61958930218000122,468
East LindseyNorth Holme1,873Louth and Horncastle685510302200051,252
East LindseyPriory and St James'3,961Louth and Horncastle1,2221,24914114000212,647
East LindseyRoughton1,837Louth and Horncastle1,1108362300051,227
East LindseySpilsby2,485Louth and Horncastle9265356313100041,659
East LindseySt Margaret's2,059Louth and Horncastle7505524120000121,375
East LindseySt Mary's1,800Louth and Horncastle7723395118000231,203
East LindseySt Michael's1,717Louth and Horncastle675409397000171,147
East LindseySutton on Sea3,770Louth and Horncastle1,46475384182000352,518
East LindseyTetford and Donington1,910Louth and Horncastle9841982945000201,276
East LindseyTetney1,996Louth and Horncastle9902732817000251,333
East LindseyTrinity1,969Louth and Horncastle581614436800091,315
East LindseyWilloughby with Sloothby2,057Louth and Horncastle9952854429000211,374
East LindseyWithern and Theddlethorpe1,938Louth and Horncastle1,050191103900041,294
East LindseyWoodhall Spa3,517Louth and Horncastle1,8863606427000122,349
 Total79,004 33,73614,0911,9912,46100049352,772

The full details of these calculations are given on the Louth and Horncastle seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Louth and Horncastle

The new seat of Louth and Horncastle is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Louth and Horncastle
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East LindseyAlford3,625Louth and Horncastle1,5727479350000222,484
East LindseyBinbrook1,982Louth and Horncastle96133651800071,327
East LindseyChapel St Leonards3,785Louth and Horncastle1,36596627141000312,530
East LindseyConingsby and Mareham6,065Louth and Horncastle3,507693151463000584,872
East LindseyFulstow1,874Louth and Horncastle984251234900031,310
East LindseyGrimoldby1,734Louth and Horncastle7942705449000201,187
East LindseyHagworthingham1,828Louth and Horncastle1,027109416800061,251
East LindseyHalton Holegate328Boston and Skegness162397120003223
East LindseyHalton Holegate1,714Louth and Horncastle8462023961000171,165
East LindseyHolton le Clay and North Thoresby3,953Louth and Horncastle1,8346996643000342,676
East LindseyHorncastle5,505Louth and Horncastle2,213909655156000383,971
East LindseyLegbourne1,775Louth and Horncastle1,022141325500041,254
East LindseyMablethorpe6,028Louth and Horncastle1,8951,825100447000284,295
East LindseyMarshchapel and Somercotes3,540Louth and Horncastle1,61958930218000122,468
East LindseyNorth Holme1,781Louth and Horncastle685510302200051,252
East LindseyPriory and St James'3,545Louth and Horncastle1,2221,24914114000212,647
East LindseyRoughton1,908Louth and Horncastle1,1108362300051,227
East LindseySpilsby2,108Louth and Horncastle9265356313100041,659
East LindseySt Margaret's1,822Louth and Horncastle7505524120000121,375
East LindseySt Mary's1,806Louth and Horncastle7723395118000231,203
East LindseySt Michael's1,668Louth and Horncastle675409397000171,147
East LindseySutton on Sea3,735Louth and Horncastle1,46475384182000352,518
East LindseyTetford and Donington1,942Louth and Horncastle9841982945000201,276
East LindseyTetney1,824Louth and Horncastle9902732817000251,333
East LindseyTrinity1,681Louth and Horncastle581614436800091,315
East LindseyWilloughby with Sloothby1,986Louth and Horncastle9952854429000211,374
East LindseyWithern and Theddlethorpe1,945Louth and Horncastle1,050191103900041,294
East LindseyWoodhall Spa3,535Louth and Horncastle1,8863606427000122,349
 Total75,022 33,89114,1271,9962,47200049652,982

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Louth and Horncastle.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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