Ludlow and Leominster: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Ludlow and Leominster: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Philip Dunne  (CON)
County/Area: Shropshire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 73,503
Turnout: 77.3%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON34,88261.4%
LAB11,67720.5%
LIB7,07812.5%
Green2,7714.9%
OTH4210.7%
CON Majority23,20540.8%

See overview of other seats in West Midlands.

Ludlow and Leominster : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Ludlow and Leominster constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWest MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right2° Right
National Position8° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %56%59%52%
British Identity20%28%29%
Good Health46%45%48%
UK Born96%89%88%
Good Education33%35%39%
Good Job46%48%51%
High SEC45%46%51%
Average Age50.248.748.5
ABC1 Class45%49%53%

Ludlow and Leominster ranks #231 for "Leave", #110 for "Right" and #161 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Ludlow and Leominster: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Ludlow and Leominster been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Ludlow and Leominster

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Herefordshire North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Herefordshire North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Herefordshire NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HerefordshireArrow2,876Ludlow and Leominster1,63324815006500342,130
HerefordshireBackbury2,302Hereford and South Herefordshire1,02440118405500411,705
HerefordshireBircher2,857Ludlow and Leominster1,38339622306100522,115
HerefordshireBishops Frome and Cradley2,408Malvern and Ledbury1,226180118024400151,783
HerefordshireBromyard Bringsty2,578Malvern and Ledbury1,19641819206000431,909
HerefordshireBromyard West2,454Malvern and Ledbury1,12543818003800361,817
HerefordshireCastle2,366Ludlow and Leominster1,18229818005500371,752
HerefordshireCredenhill2,741Hereford and South Herefordshire1,20449724103400542,030
HerefordshireHagley3,005Hereford and South Herefordshire1,38054121004500502,226
HerefordshireHampton2,674Malvern and Ledbury1,46528515204100371,980
HerefordshireHolmer1,120Hereford and South Herefordshire479223920170018829
HerefordshireHope End2,769Malvern and Ledbury1,42731520507000332,050
HerefordshireKington2,611Ludlow and Leominster5541861,12305200181,933
HerefordshireLedbury North2,463Malvern and Ledbury1,08644220105600401,825
HerefordshireLedbury South2,551Malvern and Ledbury1,17532032603800301,889
HerefordshireLedbury West2,918Malvern and Ledbury1,33251721604900482,162
HerefordshireLeominster East2,871Ludlow and Leominster1,041410200044800272,126
HerefordshireLeominster North and Rural3,173Ludlow and Leominster1,500355133033900232,350
HerefordshireLeominster South2,714Ludlow and Leominster965490220029700382,010
HerefordshireLeominster West2,171Ludlow and Leominster772254209035300191,607
HerefordshireMortimer2,488Ludlow and Leominster1,14138320008100361,841
HerefordshireOld Gore2,466Malvern and Ledbury1,23432719603600331,826
HerefordshireQueenswood2,708Ludlow and Leominster1,22148120704800482,005
HerefordshireStoney Street402Hereford and South Herefordshire1756029029006299
HerefordshireSutton Walls2,611Ludlow and Leominster1,32036715704500451,934
HerefordshireThree Crosses2,700Malvern and Ledbury1,47529114605800312,001
HerefordshireWeobley2,754Ludlow and Leominster1,38137218605600442,039
 Total67,751 31,0969,4955,87602,7700093650,173

The full details of these calculations are given on the Herefordshire North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ludlow

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ludlow, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: LudlowTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ShropshireAlveley and Claverley3,225Bridgnorth and The Wrekin1,8184261120140002,370
ShropshireBishop's Castle2,980Ludlow and Leominster1,26533743601500002,188
ShropshireBridgnorth East and Astley Abbotts5,303Bridgnorth and The Wrekin2,5279703610380003,896
ShropshireBridgnorth West and Tasley5,460Bridgnorth and The Wrekin2,5859554200500004,010
ShropshireBroseley3,713Bridgnorth and The Wrekin1,0241,5581200240002,726
ShropshireBrown Clee3,167Ludlow and Leominster1,817406820210002,326
ShropshireChirbury and Worthen2,453Shrewsbury9504263840420001,802
ShropshireChurch Stretton and Craven Arms7,155Ludlow and Leominster3,3311,1337240670005,255
ShropshireClee3,695Ludlow and Leominster1,6655674470360002,715
ShropshireCleobury Mortimer5,775Ludlow and Leominster2,9271,1351150640004,241
ShropshireClun3,193Ludlow and Leominster1,40137939201740002,346
ShropshireCorvedale3,033Ludlow and Leominster1,9521361260130002,227
ShropshireHighley2,890Ludlow and Leominster1,1417791750270002,122
ShropshireLudlow East3,307Ludlow and Leominster97690942401210002,430
ShropshireLudlow North2,940Ludlow and Leominster1,26145633301090002,159
ShropshireLudlow South3,333Ludlow and Leominster1,4465763680570002,447
ShropshireMuch Wenlock3,446Ludlow and Leominster1,6076242680320002,531
ShropshireWorfield2,967Bridgnorth and The Wrekin1,739376490150002,179
 Total68,035 31,43212,1485,33601,05400049,970

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ludlow seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Ludlow and Leominster

The new seat of Ludlow and Leominster is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Ludlow and Leominster
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HerefordshireArrow2,798Herefordshire North1,63324815006500342,130
HerefordshireBircher2,916Herefordshire North1,38339622306100522,115
HerefordshireCastle2,388Herefordshire North1,18229818005500371,752
HerefordshireKington2,445Herefordshire North5541861,12305200181,933
HerefordshireLeominster East2,544Herefordshire North1,041410200044800272,126
HerefordshireLeominster North and Rural2,832Herefordshire North1,500355133033900232,350
HerefordshireLeominster South2,465Herefordshire North965490220029700382,010
HerefordshireLeominster West1,997Herefordshire North772254209035300191,607
HerefordshireMortimer2,542Herefordshire North1,14138320008100361,841
HerefordshireQueenswood2,556Herefordshire North1,22148120704800482,005
HerefordshireSutton Walls2,392Herefordshire North1,32036715704500451,934
HerefordshireWeobley2,725Herefordshire North1,38137218605600442,039
ShropshireBishop's Castle2,747Ludlow1,26533743601500002,188
ShropshireBrown Clee3,015Ludlow1,817406820210002,326
ShropshireChurch Stretton and Craven Arms7,141Ludlow3,3311,1337240670005,255
ShropshireClee3,477Ludlow1,6655674470360002,715
ShropshireCleobury Mortimer5,614Ludlow2,9271,1351150640004,241
ShropshireClun3,014Ludlow1,40137939201740002,346
ShropshireCorvedale2,991Ludlow1,9521361260130002,227
ShropshireHighley2,574Ludlow1,1417791750270002,122
ShropshireLudlow East2,935Ludlow97690942401210002,430
ShropshireLudlow North2,942Ludlow1,26145633301090002,159
ShropshireLudlow South3,047Ludlow1,4465763680570002,447
ShropshireMuch Wenlock3,406Ludlow1,6076242680320002,531
 Total73,503 34,88211,6777,07802,7710042156,829

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Ludlow and Leominster.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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