New Seat Details - Maidstone

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Maidstone been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	32,044	55.2%
LAB	14,826	25.6%
LIB	7,949	13.7%
UKIP	1,936	3.3%
Green	1,162	2.0%
OTH	101	0.2%
CON Majority	17,218	29.7%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Maidstone: Map

List of old seats forming part of Maidstone

Old seat: Faversham and Kent Mid

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Faversham and Kent Mid, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Faversham and Kent Mid				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Maidstone	Bearsted	6,367	Maidstone	3,126	744	306	157	106	0	0	0	4,439
Maidstone	Boughton Monchelsea and Chart Sutton	1,925	Weald of Kent	1,024	276	64	29	26	0	0	0	1,419
Maidstone	Boxley	6,162	Maidstone	3,061	866	401	173	72	0	0	0	4,573
Maidstone	Detling and Thurnham	2,265	Maidstone	1,142	256	165	59	25	0	0	0	1,647
Maidstone	Downswood and Otham	1,909	Maidstone	975	341	90	71	44	0	0	0	1,521
Maidstone	Harrietsham and Lenham	4,418	Weald of Kent	1,912	645	181	143	53	0	0	0	2,934
Maidstone	Headcorn	3,778	Weald of Kent	1,926	503	119	52	117	0	0	0	2,717
Maidstone	Leeds	1,770	Weald of Kent	936	222	100	48	20	0	0	0	1,326
Maidstone	North Downs	1,834	Weald of Kent	1,011	215	44	22	50	0	0	0	1,342
Maidstone	Park Wood	4,039	Maidstone	1,664	1,198	280	142	56	0	0	0	3,340
Maidstone	Shepway North	5,770	Maidstone	2,607	1,505	409	199	148	0	0	0	4,868
Maidstone	Shepway South	4,019	Maidstone	1,429	1,491	139	71	54	0	0	0	3,184
Maidstone	Sutton Valence and Langley	2,004	Weald of Kent	1,085	256	115	28	52	0	0	0	1,536
Swale	Abbey	3,835	Canterbury and Faversham	1,468	984	198	107	132	0	0	0	2,889
Swale	Boughton and Courtenay	4,277	Canterbury and Faversham	1,997	681	134	111	117	0	0	0	3,040
Swale	East Downs	2,128	Canterbury and Faversham	1,069	297	52	25	54	0	0	0	1,497
Swale	Priory	1,978	Canterbury and Faversham	752	481	81	32	52	0	0	0	1,398
Swale	St Ann's	3,906	Canterbury and Faversham	1,515	975	191	113	127	0	0	0	2,921
Swale	Watling	4,263	Canterbury and Faversham	1,693	1,041	179	119	125	0	0	0	3,157
	Total	66,647		30,392	12,977	3,248	1,701	1,430	0	0	0	49,748

The full details of these calculations are given on the Faversham and Kent Mid seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Maidstone and The Weald

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Maidstone and The Weald, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Maidstone and The Weald				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Maidstone	Allington	5,356	Maidstone	1,965	641	783	126	34	0	0	7	3,556
Maidstone	Barming	1,880	Maidstone	832	225	112	23	12	0	0	18	1,222
Maidstone	Bridge	3,965	Maidstone	1,661	699	543	53	63	0	0	6	3,025
Maidstone	Coxheath and Hunton	5,456	Weald of Kent	2,241	648	695	123	58	0	0	14	3,779
Maidstone	East	5,839	Maidstone	2,270	1,005	888	149	94	0	0	15	4,421
Maidstone	Fant	5,972	Maidstone	2,421	1,556	650	176	115	0	0	11	4,929
Maidstone	Heath	4,037	Maidstone	1,600	801	594	54	61	0	0	5	3,115
Maidstone	High Street	5,715	Maidstone	2,361	1,526	830	172	113	0	0	22	5,024
Maidstone	Loose	1,976	Weald of Kent	729	195	237	38	11	0	0	4	1,214
Maidstone	Marden and Yalding	5,618	Weald of Kent	2,702	724	422	127	63	0	0	11	4,049
Maidstone	North	5,564	Maidstone	2,558	1,151	912	167	111	0	0	10	4,909
Maidstone	South	6,464	Maidstone	2,372	821	847	144	54	0	0	7	4,245
Maidstone	Staplehurst	4,330	Weald of Kent	1,967	537	389	99	51	0	0	24	3,067
Tunbridge Wells	Benenden and Cranbrook	5,044	Weald of Kent	2,647	728	474	125	38	0	0	6	4,018
Tunbridge Wells	Frittenden and Sissinghurst	1,571	Weald of Kent	810	174	79	38	8	0	0	13	1,122
	Total	68,787		29,136	11,431	8,455	1,614	886	0	0	173	51,695

The full details of these calculations are given on the Maidstone and The Weald seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Maidstone

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Maidstone
Maidstone	Allington	5,181	Maidstone and The Weald	1,965	641	783	126	34	0	0	7	3,556
Maidstone	Barming	1,781	Maidstone and The Weald	832	225	112	23	12	0	0	18	1,222
Maidstone	Bearsted	6,784	Faversham and Kent Mid	3,126	744	306	157	106	0	0	0	4,439
Maidstone	Boxley	6,988	Faversham and Kent Mid	3,061	866	401	173	72	0	0	0	4,573
Maidstone	Bridge	4,409	Maidstone and The Weald	1,661	699	543	53	63	0	0	6	3,025
Maidstone	Detling and Thurnham	2,517	Faversham and Kent Mid	1,142	256	165	59	25	0	0	0	1,647
Maidstone	Downswood and Otham	2,323	Faversham and Kent Mid	975	341	90	71	44	0	0	0	1,521
Maidstone	East	6,442	Maidstone and The Weald	2,270	1,005	888	149	94	0	0	15	4,421
Maidstone	Fant	7,183	Maidstone and The Weald	2,421	1,556	650	176	115	0	0	11	4,929
Maidstone	Heath	4,540	Maidstone and The Weald	1,600	801	594	54	61	0	0	5	3,115
Maidstone	High Street	7,320	Maidstone and The Weald	2,361	1,526	830	172	113	0	0	22	5,024
Maidstone	North	7,155	Maidstone and The Weald	2,558	1,151	912	167	111	0	0	10	4,909
Maidstone	Park Wood	5,100	Faversham and Kent Mid	1,664	1,198	280	142	56	0	0	0	3,340
Maidstone	Shepway North	7,438	Faversham and Kent Mid	2,607	1,505	409	199	148	0	0	0	4,868
Maidstone	Shepway South	4,865	Faversham and Kent Mid	1,429	1,491	139	71	54	0	0	0	3,184
Maidstone	South	6,187	Maidstone and The Weald	2,372	821	847	144	54	0	0	7	4,245
	Total	86,213		32,044	14,826	7,949	1,936	1,162	0	0	101	58,018

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Maidstone. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Helen Grant (CON)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	86,213
Turnout:	67.3%

Maidstone: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Maidstone: Overview

Introduction