Maidstone: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Maidstone: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Helen Grant  (CON)
County/Area: Kent (South East)
Electorate: 75,323
Turnout: 77.0%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON32,14455.4%
LAB14,98425.8%
LIB7,66813.2%
UKIP2,1943.8%
Green9141.6%
OTH1100.2%
CON Majority17,16029.6%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Maidstone : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Maidstone constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position6° Right4° Right
National Position7° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %59%52%52%
British Identity36%29%29%
Good Health47%49%48%
UK Born68%88%88%
Good Education35%43%39%
Good Job43%56%51%
High SEC41%57%51%
Average Age43.649.248.5
ABC1 Class47%60%53%

Maidstone ranks #168 for "Leave", #189 for "Right" and #199 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Maidstone: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Maidstone been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Maidstone

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Faversham and Kent Mid

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Faversham and Kent Mid, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Faversham and Kent MidTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MaidstoneBearsted6,784Maidstone3,23376628688660004,439
MaidstoneBoughton Monchelsea and Chart Sutton2,168Kent Mid and Ticehurst9863197121220001,419
MaidstoneBoxley6,988Maidstone3,148863332199320004,574
MaidstoneDetling and Thurnham2,517Maidstone1,1212971754490001,646
MaidstoneDownswood and Otham2,323Maidstone97535012338350001,521
MaidstoneHarrietsham and Lenham4,484Kent Mid and Ticehurst1,929648190132360002,935
MaidstoneHeadcorn4,151Kent Mid and Ticehurst1,90041286163050002,719
MaidstoneLeeds2,026Kent Mid and Ticehurst9212309754250001,327
MaidstoneNorth Downs2,050Kent Mid and Ticehurst1,0192323714390001,341
MaidstonePark Wood5,100Maidstone1,6271,154276252290003,338
MaidstoneShepway North7,438Maidstone2,5221,491445327840004,869
MaidstoneShepway South4,865Maidstone1,3771,472209100250003,183
MaidstoneSutton Valence and Langley2,345Kent Mid and Ticehurst1,09225410926520001,533
SwaleAbbey4,415Canterbury and Faversham1,4761,066121571690002,889
SwaleBoughton and Courtenay4,644Canterbury and Faversham2,090656128661000003,040
SwaleEast Downs2,289Canterbury and Faversham1,0422955618870001,498
SwalePriory2,136Canterbury and Faversham7554719942300001,397
SwaleSt Ann's4,461Canterbury and Faversham1,475928269971510002,920
SwaleWatling4,825Canterbury and Faversham1,7001,0711411121340003,158
 Total76,009 30,38812,9753,2501,7031,43000049,746

The full details of these calculations are given on the Faversham and Kent Mid seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Maidstone and The Weald

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Maidstone and The Weald, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Maidstone and The WealdTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MaidstoneAllington5,181Maidstone2,05964869914140043,555
MaidstoneBarming1,781Maidstone83220396211100581,221
MaidstoneBridge4,409Maidstone1,645708517381080093,025
MaidstoneCoxheath and Hunton5,507Kent Mid and Ticehurst2,314633642148350073,779
MaidstoneEast6,442Maidstone2,3411,019831135880064,420
MaidstoneFant7,183Maidstone2,2551,5927591691480074,930
MaidstoneHeath4,540Maidstone1,63479259345460063,116
MaidstoneHigh Street7,320Maidstone2,3591,464840255950085,021
MaidstoneLoose1,770Kent Mid and Ticehurst76015624831150041,214
MaidstoneMarden and Yalding5,900Kent Mid and Ticehurst2,703695466130470084,049
MaidstoneNorth7,155Maidstone2,5091,395711194980034,910
MaidstoneSouth6,187Maidstone2,507770776148360094,246
MaidstoneStaplehurst4,469Kent Mid and Ticehurst1,928538473634900163,067
Tunbridge WellsBenenden and Cranbrook5,854Kent Mid and Ticehurst2,50762570579970054,018
Tunbridge WellsFrittenden and Sissinghurst1,636Kent Mid and Ticehurst7841949917800221,124
 Total75,334 29,13711,4328,4551,6148850017251,695

The full details of these calculations are given on the Maidstone and The Weald seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Maidstone

The new seat of Maidstone is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Maidstone
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MaidstoneAllington5,356Maidstone and The Weald2,05964869914140043,555
MaidstoneBarming1,880Maidstone and The Weald83220396211100581,221
MaidstoneBearsted6,367Faversham and Kent Mid3,23376628688660004,439
MaidstoneBoxley6,162Faversham and Kent Mid3,148863332199320004,574
MaidstoneBridge3,965Maidstone and The Weald1,645708517381080093,025
MaidstoneDetling and Thurnham2,265Faversham and Kent Mid1,1212971754490001,646
MaidstoneDownswood and Otham1,909Faversham and Kent Mid97535012338350001,521
MaidstoneEast5,839Maidstone and The Weald2,3411,019831135880064,420
MaidstoneFant5,972Maidstone and The Weald2,2551,5927591691480074,930
MaidstoneHeath4,037Maidstone and The Weald1,63479259345460063,116
MaidstoneHigh Street5,715Maidstone and The Weald2,3591,464840255950085,021
MaidstoneNorth5,564Maidstone and The Weald2,5091,395711194980034,910
MaidstonePark Wood4,039Faversham and Kent Mid1,6271,154276252290003,338
MaidstoneShepway North5,770Faversham and Kent Mid2,5221,491445327840004,869
MaidstoneShepway South4,019Faversham and Kent Mid1,3771,472209100250003,183
MaidstoneSouth6,464Maidstone and The Weald2,507770776148360094,246
 Total75,323 32,14414,9847,6682,1949140011058,014

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Maidstone.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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