Malvern and Ledbury: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Malvern and Ledbury: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Harriett Baldwin  (CON)
County/Area: Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 72,441
Turnout: 78.1%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON34,90261.7%
LAB12,47722.1%
LIB5,75910.2%
Green2,0283.6%
UKIP1,0451.8%
OTH3460.6%
CON Majority22,42539.7%

See overview of other seats in West Midlands.

Malvern and Ledbury : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Malvern and Ledbury constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWest MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right2° Right
National Position8° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %53%59%52%
British Identity33%28%29%
Good Health54%45%48%
UK Born85%89%88%
Good Education51%35%39%
Good Job67%48%51%
High SEC68%46%51%
Average Age49.948.748.5
ABC1 Class72%49%53%

Malvern and Ledbury ranks #306 for "Leave", #95 for "Right" and #176 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Malvern and Ledbury: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Malvern and Ledbury been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Malvern and Ledbury

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Herefordshire North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Herefordshire North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Herefordshire NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HerefordshireArrow2,876Ludlow and Leominster1,63324815006500342,130
HerefordshireBackbury2,302Hereford and South Herefordshire1,02440118405500411,705
HerefordshireBircher2,857Ludlow and Leominster1,38339622306100522,115
HerefordshireBishops Frome and Cradley2,408Malvern and Ledbury1,226180118024400151,783
HerefordshireBromyard Bringsty2,578Malvern and Ledbury1,19641819206000431,909
HerefordshireBromyard West2,454Malvern and Ledbury1,12543818003800361,817
HerefordshireCastle2,366Ludlow and Leominster1,18229818005500371,752
HerefordshireCredenhill2,741Hereford and South Herefordshire1,20449724103400542,030
HerefordshireHagley3,005Hereford and South Herefordshire1,38054121004500502,226
HerefordshireHampton2,674Malvern and Ledbury1,46528515204100371,980
HerefordshireHolmer1,120Hereford and South Herefordshire479223920170018829
HerefordshireHope End2,769Malvern and Ledbury1,42731520507000332,050
HerefordshireKington2,611Ludlow and Leominster5541861,12305200181,933
HerefordshireLedbury North2,463Malvern and Ledbury1,08644220105600401,825
HerefordshireLedbury South2,551Malvern and Ledbury1,17532032603800301,889
HerefordshireLedbury West2,918Malvern and Ledbury1,33251721604900482,162
HerefordshireLeominster East2,871Ludlow and Leominster1,041410200044800272,126
HerefordshireLeominster North and Rural3,173Ludlow and Leominster1,500355133033900232,350
HerefordshireLeominster South2,714Ludlow and Leominster965490220029700382,010
HerefordshireLeominster West2,171Ludlow and Leominster772254209035300191,607
HerefordshireMortimer2,488Ludlow and Leominster1,14138320008100361,841
HerefordshireOld Gore2,466Malvern and Ledbury1,23432719603600331,826
HerefordshireQueenswood2,708Ludlow and Leominster1,22148120704800482,005
HerefordshireStoney Street402Hereford and South Herefordshire1756029029006299
HerefordshireSutton Walls2,611Ludlow and Leominster1,32036715704500451,934
HerefordshireThree Crosses2,700Malvern and Ledbury1,47529114605800312,001
HerefordshireWeobley2,754Ludlow and Leominster1,38137218605600442,039
 Total67,751 31,0969,4955,87602,7700093650,173

The full details of these calculations are given on the Herefordshire North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Worcestershire West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Worcestershire West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Worcestershire WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Malvern HillsAlfrick and Leigh2,821Malvern and Ledbury1,4345168965380002,142
Malvern HillsBaldwin1,692Malvern and Ledbury1,14875262970001,285
Malvern HillsBroadheath2,786Malvern and Ledbury1,48538119532220002,115
Malvern HillsChase4,976Malvern and Ledbury1,988890641881710003,778
Malvern HillsDyson Perrins3,231Malvern and Ledbury1,2237801431631440002,453
Malvern HillsHallow1,496Malvern and Ledbury721367298100001,135
Malvern HillsKempsey3,154Evesham1,4558186840140002,395
Malvern HillsLindridge1,793Malvern and Ledbury1,1541294014240001,361
Malvern HillsLink4,959Malvern and Ledbury1,8211,325412138680003,764
Malvern HillsLongdon1,744Evesham9522011602100001,325
Malvern HillsMartley1,432Malvern and Ledbury7582622414280001,086
Malvern HillsMorton1,645Evesham829367202580001,249
Malvern HillsPickersleigh5,220Malvern and Ledbury1,6381,453660165470003,963
Malvern HillsPowick3,007Malvern and Ledbury1,227376553101260002,283
Malvern HillsPriory3,306Malvern and Ledbury1,376426497481630002,510
Malvern HillsRipple1,475Evesham841235231830001,120
Malvern HillsTeme Valley1,608Malvern and Ledbury9031902384210001,221
Malvern HillsTenbury3,052Malvern and Ledbury1,62846810284350002,317
Malvern HillsUpton and Hanley3,404Evesham1,602654130122760002,584
Malvern HillsWells2,592Malvern and Ledbury1,21647514021330001,966
Malvern HillsWest3,457Malvern and Ledbury1,38565322423600002,624
Malvern HillsWoodbury1,729Malvern and Ledbury1,056178298410001,312
WychavonBredon2,038Evesham1,32514959590001,547
WychavonEckington2,198Evesham1,171441272280001,669
WychavonElmley Castle and Somerville1,983Evesham1,1292085320940001,504
WychavonPershore5,732Evesham2,3721,074697182280004,353
WychavonSouth Bredon Hill1,856Evesham8672862431130001,410
 Total74,386 34,70413,3775,3071,4821,60100056,471

The full details of these calculations are given on the Worcestershire West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Malvern and Ledbury

The new seat of Malvern and Ledbury is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Malvern and Ledbury
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HerefordshireBishops Frome and Cradley2,433Herefordshire North1,226180118024400151,783
HerefordshireBromyard Bringsty2,548Herefordshire North1,19641819206000431,909
HerefordshireBromyard West2,222Herefordshire North1,12543818003800361,817
HerefordshireHampton2,666Herefordshire North1,46528515204100371,980
HerefordshireHope End2,805Herefordshire North1,42731520507000332,050
HerefordshireLedbury North2,436Herefordshire North1,08644220105600401,825
HerefordshireLedbury South2,385Herefordshire North1,17532032603800301,889
HerefordshireLedbury West2,479Herefordshire North1,33251721604900482,162
HerefordshireOld Gore2,424Herefordshire North1,23432719603600331,826
HerefordshireThree Crosses2,658Herefordshire North1,47529114605800312,001
Malvern HillsAlfrick and Leigh2,844Worcestershire West1,4345168965380002,142
Malvern HillsBaldwin1,654Worcestershire West1,14875262970001,285
Malvern HillsBroadheath2,782Worcestershire West1,48538119532220002,115
Malvern HillsChase4,648Worcestershire West1,988890641881710003,778
Malvern HillsDyson Perrins3,330Worcestershire West1,2237801431631440002,453
Malvern HillsHallow1,488Worcestershire West721367298100001,135
Malvern HillsLindridge1,846Worcestershire West1,1541294014240001,361
Malvern HillsLink4,825Worcestershire West1,8211,325412138680003,764
Malvern HillsMartley1,411Worcestershire West7582622414280001,086
Malvern HillsPickersleigh4,433Worcestershire West1,6381,453660165470003,963
Malvern HillsPowick3,058Worcestershire West1,227376553101260002,283
Malvern HillsPriory3,039Worcestershire West1,376426497481630002,510
Malvern HillsTeme Valley1,544Worcestershire West9031902384210001,221
Malvern HillsTenbury2,924Worcestershire West1,62846810284350002,317
Malvern HillsWells2,630Worcestershire West1,21647514021330001,966
Malvern HillsWest3,267Worcestershire West1,38565322423600002,624
Malvern HillsWoodbury1,662Worcestershire West1,056178298410001,312
 Total72,441 34,90212,4775,7591,0452,0280034656,557

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Malvern and Ledbury.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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