Middlesbrough South and Thornaby: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Middlesbrough South and Thornaby: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (new seat)  (LAB)
County/Area: Teesside (North East)
Electorate: 73,457
Turnout: 68.9%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB26,17351.7%
CON22,44644.4%
UKIP1,1112.2%
LIB6031.2%
Green1690.3%
MIN940.2%
LAB Majority3,7277.4%

See overview of other seats in North East.

Middlesbrough South and Thornaby : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Middlesbrough South and Thornaby constituency, the 'North East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth EastAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position1° Right8° Left
National Position10° Nat4° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %62%58%52%
British Identity19%26%29%
Good Health43%44%48%
UK Born97%95%88%
Good Education27%35%39%
Good Job41%46%51%
High SEC37%44%51%
Average Age48.749.048.5
ABC1 Class38%47%53%

Middlesbrough South and Thornaby ranks #104 for "Leave", #304 for "Right" and #127 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Middlesbrough South and Thornaby: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Middlesbrough South and Thornaby been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Middlesbrough South and Thornaby

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Middlesbrough

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Middlesbrough, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: MiddlesbroughTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MiddlesbroughAcklam3,726Middlesbrough and Eston8871,1973027203002,173
MiddlesbroughAyresome3,902Middlesbrough South and Thornaby5961,48911138603602,276
MiddlesbroughBerwick Hills and Pallister4,237Middlesbrough and Eston4221,9241775103202,471
MiddlesbroughBrambles and Thorntree5,893Middlesbrough and Eston6522,49619210005903,436
MiddlesbroughCentral7,058Middlesbrough and Eston9372,93599333010804,115
MiddlesbroughKader3,563Middlesbrough South and Thornaby96688932166102302,077
MiddlesbroughLadgate24Middlesbrough South and Thornaby5801000014
MiddlesbroughLinthorpe4,094Middlesbrough and Eston6971,44016955202402,387
MiddlesbroughLonglands and Beechwood6,700Middlesbrough and Eston8592,72111242307003,906
MiddlesbroughNewport7,248Middlesbrough and Eston8303,068102231308404,228
MiddlesbroughNorth Ormesby2,035Middlesbrough and Eston306802646002701,187
MiddlesbroughPark6,516Middlesbrough and Eston1,0752,484321913805103,799
MiddlesbroughPark End and Beckfield3,110Middlesbrough and Eston5581,134860005401,814
MiddlesbroughTrimdon3,009Middlesbrough South and Thornaby74181617146003501,755
 Total61,115 9,53123,4033711,4512490633035,638

The full details of these calculations are given on the Middlesbrough seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Middlesbrough South and Cleveland EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MiddlesbroughBerwick Hills and Pallister2,110Middlesbrough and Eston3311,04018000001,389
MiddlesbroughCoulby Newham7,010Middlesbrough South and Thornaby1,8732,527215000004,615
MiddlesbroughHemlington5,278Middlesbrough South and Thornaby1,0922,33647000003,475
MiddlesbroughLadgate4,365Middlesbrough South and Thornaby1,1381,71025000002,873
MiddlesbroughMarton East3,641Middlesbrough South and Thornaby1,49784951000002,397
MiddlesbroughMarton West4,170Middlesbrough South and Thornaby1,76794632000002,745
MiddlesbroughNunthorpe3,874Middlesbrough South and Thornaby1,70974893000002,550
MiddlesbroughPark End and Beckfield2,748Middlesbrough and Eston7191,05931000001,809
MiddlesbroughStainton and Thornton1,604Middlesbrough South and Thornaby6324222000001,056
Redcar and ClevelandBrotton5,474Redcar and Cleveland East1,7011,82973000003,603
Redcar and ClevelandGuisborough5,998Redcar and Cleveland East1,8662,01371000003,950
Redcar and ClevelandHutton5,646Redcar and Cleveland East2,3191,156242000003,717
Redcar and ClevelandLockwood1,584Redcar and Cleveland East59142923000001,043
Redcar and ClevelandLoftus4,778Redcar and Cleveland East1,4621,62359000003,144
Redcar and ClevelandSaltburn4,660Redcar and Cleveland East1,6711,171226000003,068
Redcar and ClevelandSkelton5,827Redcar and Cleveland East1,8571,91861000003,836
Redcar and ClevelandWestworth3,567Redcar and Cleveland East1,41684884000002,348
 Total72,334 23,64122,6241,3530000047,618

The full details of these calculations are given on the Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Stockton South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Stockton South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Stockton SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Stockton-on-TeesBishopsgarth and Elm Tree5,024Stockton and Yarm1,4301,8822125010003,575
Stockton-on-TeesEaglescliffe8,022Stockton and Yarm3,3091,96131390360005,709
Stockton-on-TeesFairfield4,454Stockton and Yarm1,6351,3525612610003,170
Stockton-on-TeesGrangefield5,115Stockton and Yarm1,5001,92452149160003,641
Stockton-on-TeesHartburn5,025Stockton and Yarm2,2531,218604230003,576
Stockton-on-TeesIngleby Barwick East7,747Middlesbrough South and Thornaby3,0452,19413195670005,514
Stockton-on-TeesIngleby Barwick West8,316Middlesbrough South and Thornaby3,3552,441309120005,919
Stockton-on-TeesMandale and Victoria8,433Middlesbrough South and Thornaby1,6504,10721174490006,001
Stockton-on-TeesParkfield and Oxbridge5,746Stockton and Yarm1,4792,37952631170004,090
Stockton-on-TeesStainsby Hill4,988Middlesbrough South and Thornaby1,0542,352599390003,549
Stockton-on-TeesVillage5,311Middlesbrough South and Thornaby1,3262,339910150003,780
Stockton-on-TeesYarm7,439Stockton and Yarm3,1761,9521293350005,295
 Total75,620 25,21226,1019521,18337100053,819

The full details of these calculations are given on the Stockton South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Middlesbrough South and Thornaby

The new seat of Middlesbrough South and Thornaby is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Middlesbrough South and Thornaby
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MiddlesbroughAyresome3,988Middlesbrough5961,48911138603602,276
MiddlesbroughCoulby Newham6,366Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East1,8732,527215000004,615
MiddlesbroughHemlington4,386Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East1,0922,33647000003,475
MiddlesbroughKader4,413Middlesbrough96688932166102302,077
MiddlesbroughLadgate21Middlesbrough6900000015
MiddlesbroughLadgate3,839Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East1,1371,70925100002,872
MiddlesbroughMarton East4,066Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East1,49784951000002,397
MiddlesbroughMarton West4,210Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East1,76794632000002,745
MiddlesbroughNunthorpe3,891Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East1,70974893000002,550
MiddlesbroughStainton and Thornton1,844Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East6324222000001,056
MiddlesbroughTrimdon3,573Middlesbrough74181617146003501,755
Stockton-on-TeesIngleby Barwick East7,467Stockton South3,0452,19413195670005,514
Stockton-on-TeesIngleby Barwick West8,184Stockton South3,3552,441309120005,919
Stockton-on-TeesMandale and Victoria7,267Stockton South1,6504,10721174490006,001
Stockton-on-TeesStainsby Hill4,740Stockton South1,0542,352599390003,549
Stockton-on-TeesVillage5,202Stockton South1,3262,339910150003,780
 Total73,457 22,44626,1736031,111169094050,596

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Middlesbrough South and Thornaby.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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