Monmouthshire: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Monmouthshire: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: David Davies  (CON)
County/Area: Gwent (Wales)
Electorate: 74,532
Turnout: 74.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON29,82553.6%
LAB19,97135.9%
LIB2,2404.0%
Plaid1,6252.9%
UKIP9511.7%
Green8781.6%
OTH1190.2%
CON Majority9,85417.7%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Monmouthshire : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Monmouthshire constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position2° Right10° Left
National Position1° Int3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %50%53%52%
British Identity32%26%29%
Good Health56%47%48%
UK Born96%95%88%
Good Education43%36%39%
Good Job60%46%51%
High SEC71%46%51%
Average Age51.249.648.5
ABC1 Class62%47%53%

Monmouthshire ranks #391 for "Leave", #289 for "Right" and #397 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Monmouthshire: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Monmouthshire been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Monmouthshire

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Monmouth

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Monmouth, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: MonmouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MonmouthshireCaerwent1,404Monmouthshire6823745627001,076
MonmouthshireCantref1,574Monmouthshire717426370206001,206
MonmouthshireCastle1,528Monmouthshire6773866225156001,171
MonmouthshireCroesonen1,744Monmouthshire361861498750001,336
MonmouthshireCrucorney1,667Monmouthshire75630834466865001,277
MonmouthshireDevauden1,158Monmouthshire6111291163171100887
MonmouthshireDixton with Osbaston1,879Monmouthshire743395168315251001,440
MonmouthshireDrybridge2,741Monmouthshire992832543482106002,100
MonmouthshireGoetre Fawr1,881Monmouthshire1,1452436251012001,441
MonmouthshireGrofield1,442Monmouthshire31946723683936001,105
MonmouthshireLansdown1,715Monmouthshire3398801428152001,314
MonmouthshireLarkfield1,505Monmouthshire52243515716715001,152
MonmouthshireLlanbadoc996Monmouthshire3982642720223300764
MonmouthshireLlanelly Hill3,029Monmouthshire1,055898417471181002,320
MonmouthshireLlanfoist Fawr1,518Monmouthshire8322751342317001,164
MonmouthshireLlangybi Fawr1,433Monmouthshire9521248194001,098
MonmouthshireLlanover1,742Monmouthshire8494031502245001,334
MonmouthshireLlantilio Crossenny1,336Monmouthshire855116230821001,023
MonmouthshireLlanwenarth Ultra1,063Monmouthshire32642631272300815
MonmouthshireMardy1,314Monmouthshire48036564253242001,008
MonmouthshireMitchel Troy982Monmouthshire63675111181100752
MonmouthshireOvermonnow1,821Monmouthshire60464940312547001,396
MonmouthshirePortskewett1,643Monmouthshire72051710345001,259
MonmouthshirePriory1,556Monmouthshire52851012014128001,192
MonmouthshireRaglan1,508Monmouthshire67337434152238001,156
MonmouthshireShirenewton1,715Monmouthshire80434940293359001,314
MonmouthshireSt Arvans1,245Monmouthshire8171098014600954
MonmouthshireSt Christopher's2,037Monmouthshire612904428310001,561
MonmouthshireSt Kingsmark2,343Monmouthshire1,16031627492313001,795
MonmouthshireSt Mary's1,592Monmouthshire49450716652821001,221
MonmouthshireThornwell2,106Monmouthshire676869812443001,612
MonmouthshireTrellech United2,105Monmouthshire94846743326854001,612
MonmouthshireUsk2,196Monmouthshire1,3832182120535001,682
MonmouthshireWyesham1,662Monmouthshire630447462010524001,272
TorfaenCroesyceiliog North2,660Torfaen5651,22758684378002,039
TorfaenCroesyceiliog South1,404Torfaen3405979811237001,076
TorfaenLlanyrafon North1,563Torfaen3267872221248001,197
TorfaenLlanyrafon South2,104Torfaen8816751116918001,610
 Total64,911 26,40818,2042,0657629541,3380049,731

The full details of these calculations are given on the Monmouth seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Newport East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Newport East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Newport EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MonmouthshireCaldicot Castle1,404Monmouthshire3393931531012402904
MonmouthshireDewstow1,445Monmouthshire2164811940016508929
MonmouthshireGreen Lane1,430Monmouthshire365457857012022921
MonmouthshireMill1,998Monmouthshire7314482148080291,285
MonmouthshireRogiet1,332Monmouthshire4242835558023013856
MonmouthshireSevern1,297Monmouthshire193535261406204834
MonmouthshireThe Elms2,497Monmouthshire8466831936040201,608
MonmouthshireWest End1,481Monmouthshire2286332433021014953
NewportAlway6,088Newport1,0092,7165980045073,916
NewportBeechwood5,450Newport1,2681,88316617508063,506
NewportLangstone3,263Monmouthshire1,407636311507022,098
NewportLiswerry9,054Newport1,5854,009551060550145,824
NewportLlanwern2,194Monmouthshire7805043744042051,412
NewportRingland6,310Newport9272,790101150083084,059
NewportSt Julians6,304Newport1,3922,2121951890530154,056
NewportVictoria5,685Newport1,0922,14213310401710183,660
 Total57,232 12,80220,8059641,1800883018736,821

The full details of these calculations are given on the Newport East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Monmouthshire

The new seat of Monmouthshire is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Monmouthshire
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MonmouthshireCaerwent1,615Monmouth6823745627001,076
MonmouthshireCaldicot Castle1,736Newport East3393931531012402904
MonmouthshireCantref1,579Monmouth717426370206001,206
MonmouthshireCastle1,507Monmouth6773866225156001,171
MonmouthshireCroesonen1,607Monmouth361861498750001,336
MonmouthshireCrucorney1,691Monmouth75630834466865001,277
MonmouthshireDevauden1,174Monmouth6111291163171100887
MonmouthshireDewstow1,370Newport East2164811940016508929
MonmouthshireDixton with Osbaston1,793Monmouth743395168315251001,440
MonmouthshireDrybridge2,423Monmouth992832543482106002,100
MonmouthshireGoetre Fawr1,833Monmouth1,1452436251012001,441
MonmouthshireGreen Lane1,363Newport East365457857012022921
MonmouthshireGrofield1,285Monmouth31946723683936001,105
MonmouthshireLansdown1,540Monmouth3398801428152001,314
MonmouthshireLarkfield1,475Monmouth52243515716715001,152
MonmouthshireLlanbadoc1,014Monmouth3982642720223300764
MonmouthshireLlanelly Hill3,014Monmouth1,055898417471181002,320
MonmouthshireLlanfoist Fawr1,616Monmouth8322751342317001,164
MonmouthshireLlangybi Fawr1,439Monmouth9521248194001,098
MonmouthshireLlanover1,717Monmouth8494031502245001,334
MonmouthshireLlantilio Crossenny1,422Monmouth855116230821001,023
MonmouthshireLlanwenarth Ultra1,073Monmouth32642631272300815
MonmouthshireMardy1,331Monmouth48036564253242001,008
MonmouthshireMill2,242Newport East7314482148080291,285
MonmouthshireMitchel Troy953Monmouth63675111181100752
MonmouthshireOvermonnow1,509Monmouth60464940312547001,396
MonmouthshirePortskewett1,684Monmouth72051710345001,259
MonmouthshirePriory1,437Monmouth52851012014128001,192
MonmouthshireRaglan1,510Monmouth67337434152238001,156
MonmouthshireRogiet1,303Newport East4242835558023013856
MonmouthshireSevern1,269Newport East193535261406204834
MonmouthshireShirenewton1,754Monmouth80434940293359001,314
MonmouthshireSt Arvans1,253Monmouth8171098014600954
MonmouthshireSt Christopher's1,762Monmouth612904428310001,561
MonmouthshireSt Kingsmark2,226Monmouth1,16031627492313001,795
MonmouthshireSt Mary's1,414Monmouth49450716652821001,221
MonmouthshireThe Elms2,408Newport East8466831936040201,608
MonmouthshireThornwell1,860Monmouth676869812443001,612
MonmouthshireTrellech United2,122Monmouth94846743326854001,612
MonmouthshireUsk1,862Monmouth1,3832182120535001,682
MonmouthshireWest End1,438Newport East2286332433021014953
MonmouthshireWyesham1,644Monmouth630447462010524001,272
NewportLangstone3,620Newport East1,407636311507022,098
NewportLlanwern2,645Newport East7805043744042051,412
 Total74,532 29,82519,9712,2409518781,625011955,609

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Monmouthshire.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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