New Forest East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

New Forest East: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Julian Lewis  (CON)
County/Area: Hampshire (South East)
Electorate: 71,844
Turnout: 72.3%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON32,24462.1%
LAB10,42320.1%
LIB8,22915.8%
Green1,0502.0%
OTH70.0%
CON Majority21,82142.0%

See overview of other seats in South East.

New Forest East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new New Forest East constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position8° Right4° Right
National Position9° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %60%52%52%
British Identity23%29%29%
Good Health51%49%48%
UK Born97%88%88%
Good Education27%43%39%
Good Job44%56%51%
High SEC48%57%51%
Average Age47.749.248.5
ABC1 Class43%60%53%

New Forest East ranks #145 for "Leave", #140 for "Right" and #139 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

New Forest East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for New Forest East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of New Forest East

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: New Forest East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of New Forest East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: New Forest EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
New ForestAshurst, Copythorne South and Netley Marsh4,495New Forest East2,2876462170300003,180
New ForestBoldre and Sway4,288New Forest West2,40422819502070003,034
New ForestBramshaw, Copythorne North and Minstead1,984New Forest East1,116117930780001,404
New ForestBrockenhurst and Forest South East4,473New Forest East2,21448827401890003,165
New ForestButts Ash and Dibden Purlieu5,079New Forest East2,0557088020280003,593
New ForestDibden and Hythe East4,459New Forest East1,8654857250800003,155
New ForestFawley, Blackfield and Langley4,738New Forest East2,2107054170200003,352
New ForestFurzedown and Hardley2,774New Forest East1,1333544550220001,964
New ForestHolbury and North Blackfield5,383New Forest East2,2459415910300003,807
New ForestHythe West and Langdown4,926New Forest East1,9585549500240003,486
New ForestLyndhurst2,404New Forest East1,20023715001130001,700
New ForestMarchwood4,861New Forest East2,1576475960400003,440
New ForestTotton Central4,173New Forest East1,8427722390990002,952
New ForestTotton East4,830New Forest East1,87388254701160003,418
New ForestTotton North5,023New Forest East2,1148705340360003,554
New ForestTotton South4,790New Forest East1,67083277101150003,388
New ForestTotton West3,921New Forest East1,8197012290260002,775
 Total72,601 32,16210,1677,78501,25300051,367

The full details of these calculations are given on the New Forest East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Romsey and Southampton North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Romsey and Southampton North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Romsey and Southampton NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SouthamptonBassett10,922Southampton Test4,2762,3541,212028300328,157
SouthamptonSwaythling10,402Southampton Test3,0533,1761,076042900357,769
Test ValleyAbbey3,523Test Valley1,4834546330540072,631
Test ValleyAmpfield and Braishfield1,678Test Valley862115266070021,252
Test ValleyBlackwater3,848Test Valley2,0372765090480032,873
Test ValleyBroughton and Stockbridge3,468Test Valley1,88620239201500952,590
Test ValleyChilworth, Nursling and Rownhams4,848New Forest East2,486484639040073,620
Test ValleyCupernham3,754Test Valley1,46038093102000122,803
Test ValleyDun Valley1,769Test Valley896121297050021,321
Test ValleyHarewood1,701Test Valley1,037125100050031,270
Test ValleyKings Somborne and Michelmersh1,984Test Valley1,074121273090051,482
Test ValleyNorth Baddesley5,217Test Valley2,0495351,2860800173,895
Test ValleyOver Wallop1,635Test Valley1,08133920400121,222
Test ValleyRomsey Extra2,598Test Valley1,17230639304100271,939
Test ValleyTadburn3,963Test Valley1,4674231,0470160062,959
Test ValleyValley Park5,875Test Valley2,3485101,517060064,387
 Total67,185 28,6679,61510,66309540027150,170

The full details of these calculations are given on the Romsey and Southampton North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: New Forest East

The new seat of New Forest East is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: New Forest East
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
New ForestAshurst, Copythorne South and Netley Marsh4,702New Forest East2,2876462170300003,180
New ForestBramshaw, Copythorne North and Minstead2,124New Forest East1,116117930780001,404
New ForestBrockenhurst and Forest South East4,404New Forest East2,21448827401890003,165
New ForestButts Ash and Dibden Purlieu4,959New Forest East2,0557088020280003,593
New ForestDibden and Hythe East4,496New Forest East1,8654857250800003,155
New ForestFawley, Blackfield and Langley4,772New Forest East2,2107054170200003,352
New ForestFurzedown and Hardley2,634New Forest East1,1333544550220001,964
New ForestHolbury and North Blackfield4,928New Forest East2,2459415910300003,807
New ForestHythe West and Langdown4,905New Forest East1,9585549500240003,486
New ForestLyndhurst2,353New Forest East1,20023715001130001,700
New ForestMarchwood4,401New Forest East2,1576475960400003,440
New ForestTotton Central4,211New Forest East1,8427722390990002,952
New ForestTotton East4,890New Forest East1,87388254701160003,418
New ForestTotton North4,611New Forest East2,1148705340360003,554
New ForestTotton South4,569New Forest East1,67083277101150003,388
New ForestTotton West3,725New Forest East1,8197012290260002,775
Test ValleyChilworth, Nursling and Rownhams5,160Romsey and Southampton North2,486484639040073,620
 Total71,844 32,24410,4238,22901,05000751,953

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of New Forest East.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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