New Forest West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

New Forest West: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Desmond Swayne  (CON)
County/Area: Hampshire (South East)
Electorate: 71,289
Turnout: 73.9%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON35,57267.6%
LAB9,96318.9%
LIB4,9759.4%
Green1,6603.2%
OTH4820.9%
CON Majority25,60948.6%

See overview of other seats in South East.

New Forest West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new New Forest West constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position7° Right4° Right
National Position6° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %55%52%52%
British Identity34%29%29%
Good Health47%49%48%
UK Born96%88%88%
Good Education44%43%39%
Good Job55%56%51%
High SEC57%57%51%
Average Age52.349.248.5
ABC1 Class57%60%53%

New Forest West ranks #254 for "Leave", #156 for "Right" and #215 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

New Forest West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for New Forest West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of New Forest West

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: New Forest East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of New Forest East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: New Forest EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
New ForestAshurst, Copythorne South and Netley Marsh4,495New Forest East2,2876462170300003,180
New ForestBoldre and Sway4,288New Forest West2,40422819502070003,034
New ForestBramshaw, Copythorne North and Minstead1,984New Forest East1,116117930780001,404
New ForestBrockenhurst and Forest South East4,473New Forest East2,21448827401890003,165
New ForestButts Ash and Dibden Purlieu5,079New Forest East2,0557088020280003,593
New ForestDibden and Hythe East4,459New Forest East1,8654857250800003,155
New ForestFawley, Blackfield and Langley4,738New Forest East2,2107054170200003,352
New ForestFurzedown and Hardley2,774New Forest East1,1333544550220001,964
New ForestHolbury and North Blackfield5,383New Forest East2,2459415910300003,807
New ForestHythe West and Langdown4,926New Forest East1,9585549500240003,486
New ForestLyndhurst2,404New Forest East1,20023715001130001,700
New ForestMarchwood4,861New Forest East2,1576475960400003,440
New ForestTotton Central4,173New Forest East1,8427722390990002,952
New ForestTotton East4,830New Forest East1,87388254701160003,418
New ForestTotton North5,023New Forest East2,1148705340360003,554
New ForestTotton South4,790New Forest East1,67083277101150003,388
New ForestTotton West3,921New Forest East1,8197012290260002,775
 Total72,601 32,16210,1677,78501,25300051,367

The full details of these calculations are given on the New Forest East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: New Forest West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of New Forest West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: New Forest WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
New ForestBarton4,460New Forest West2,31358828401800133,216
New ForestBashley2,246New Forest West1,1393391150190081,620
New ForestBecton3,993New Forest West1,92037953802800142,879
New ForestBransgore and Burley4,643New Forest West2,47949092026900193,349
New ForestBuckland2,868New Forest West1,12648935003700672,069
New ForestDownlands and Forest2,310New Forest West1,2053321020210071,667
New ForestFernhill5,167New Forest West2,29693841606200163,728
New ForestFordingbridge5,445New Forest West2,4041,06334807100423,928
New ForestForest North West2,117New Forest West1,285149580280071,527
New ForestHordle4,456New Forest West2,13768732505000153,214
New ForestLymington Town4,753New Forest West2,185700295063001853,428
New ForestMilford3,949New Forest West2,28936315702700122,848
New ForestMilton5,187New Forest West2,49660457105800133,742
New ForestPennington4,964New Forest West2,12867770504600253,581
New ForestRingwood East and Sopley2,263New Forest West1,407171370110061,632
New ForestRingwood North5,027New Forest West2,1141,038207024900183,626
New ForestRingwood South4,940New Forest West2,245728180039600153,564
 Total68,788 33,1689,7354,78001,4530048249,618

The full details of these calculations are given on the New Forest West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: New Forest West

The new seat of New Forest West is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: New Forest West
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
New ForestBarton4,809New Forest West2,31358828401800133,216
New ForestBashley2,209New Forest West1,1393391150190081,620
New ForestBecton3,975New Forest West1,92037953802800142,879
New ForestBoldre and Sway4,418New Forest East2,40422819502070003,034
New ForestBransgore and Burley4,470New Forest West2,47949092026900193,349
New ForestBuckland2,579New Forest West1,12648935003700672,069
New ForestDownlands and Forest2,350New Forest West1,2053321020210071,667
New ForestFernhill4,720New Forest West2,29693841606200163,728
New ForestFordingbridge5,237New Forest West2,4041,06334807100423,928
New ForestForest North West2,055New Forest West1,285149580280071,527
New ForestHordle4,502New Forest West2,13768732505000153,214
New ForestLymington Town4,686New Forest West2,185700295063001853,428
New ForestMilford4,180New Forest West2,28936315702700122,848
New ForestMilton4,807New Forest West2,49660457105800133,742
New ForestPennington4,755New Forest West2,12867770504600253,581
New ForestRingwood East and Sopley2,100New Forest West1,407171370110061,632
New ForestRingwood North4,845New Forest West2,1141,038207024900183,626
New ForestRingwood South4,592New Forest West2,245728180039600153,564
 Total71,289 35,5729,9634,97501,6600048252,652

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of New Forest West.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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