Newark: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Newark: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Robert Jenrick  (CON)
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 76,047
Turnout: 76.4%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON36,64563.1%
LAB16,98829.3%
LIB2,9795.1%
UKIP1,4252.5%
Green320.1%
CON Majority19,65733.9%

See overview of other seats in East Midlands.

Newark : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Newark constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right3° Right
National Position10° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %57%59%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health54%45%48%
UK Born95%91%88%
Good Education33%36%39%
Good Job43%48%51%
High SEC53%47%51%
Average Age50.649.148.5
ABC1 Class44%50%53%

Newark ranks #203 for "Leave", #91 for "Right" and #130 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Newark: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Newark been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Newark

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Newark

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Newark, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: NewarkTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BassetlawEast Markham1,896Newark1,0553128700001,382
BassetlawRampton1,752Newark84539992500001,278
BassetlawTuxford and Trent3,253Newark1,421893144200002,370
Newark and SherwoodBalderton North and Coddington5,097Newark2,3771,1431058900003,714
Newark and SherwoodBalderton South3,778Newark1,782831548600002,753
Newark and SherwoodBeacon6,476Newark2,5471,75415426500004,720
Newark and SherwoodBridge5,073Newark1,3382,0103031900003,697
Newark and SherwoodCastle2,496Newark87269410914300001,818
Newark and SherwoodCollingham4,105Newark2,008724252700002,991
Newark and SherwoodDevon7,225Newark2,6282,4024818800005,266
Newark and SherwoodDover Beck1,846Newark1,21111813300001,345
Newark and SherwoodFarndon and Fernwood4,497Newark2,3826486118600003,277
Newark and SherwoodLowdham2,778Newark1,71824758200002,025
Newark and SherwoodMuskham2,239Newark1,232236160400001,632
Newark and SherwoodRainworth North and Rufford343Sherwood118118860000250
Newark and SherwoodSouthwell5,723Newark2,505853813100004,172
Newark and SherwoodSutton-on-Trent2,336Newark1,1082083691600001,701
Newark and SherwoodTrent2,267Newark1,44414264300001,653
RushcliffeBingham East3,667Newark1,510988165900002,672
RushcliffeBingham West3,306Newark1,396890118600002,410
RushcliffeCranmer2,357Newark1,221404831000001,718
RushcliffeEast Bridgford1,430Newark74123862100001,042
RushcliffeThoroton1,585Newark1,0359228100001,156
 Total75,525 34,49416,3442,7851,419000055,042

The full details of these calculations are given on the Newark seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Rushcliffe

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Rushcliffe, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: RushcliffeTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
RushcliffeAbbey4,260Rushcliffe North1,4281,462244371530003,324
RushcliffeBunny1,930Loughborough and South Rushcliffe1,085352204630001,506
RushcliffeCompton Acres4,202Rushcliffe North1,8691,13919945260003,278
RushcliffeCotgrave5,684Rushcliffe North2,0132,06051236740004,434
RushcliffeCropwell2,011Rushcliffe North9635262835170001,569
RushcliffeEast Bridgford529Newark2821111262000413
RushcliffeEdwalton2,976Rushcliffe North1,28579213340720002,322
RushcliffeGamston North1,996Rushcliffe North8496201653190001,557
RushcliffeGamston South2,082Rushcliffe North1,003584111250001,624
RushcliffeGotham1,911Loughborough and South Rushcliffe84151011113160001,491
RushcliffeKeyworth and Wolds6,309Loughborough and South Rushcliffe2,8081,486320230790004,923
RushcliffeLady Bay4,155Rushcliffe North1,0061,64115514400003,243
RushcliffeLeake5,536Loughborough and South Rushcliffe2,5391,52425206250004,319
RushcliffeLutterell4,232Rushcliffe North1,4111,57924621450003,302
RushcliffeMusters3,614Rushcliffe North1,0668958061510002,819
RushcliffeNevile and Langar2,143Rushcliffe North1,236399195130001,672
RushcliffeRadcliffe on Trent6,461Rushcliffe North2,7711,946104143760005,040
RushcliffeRuddington5,685Rushcliffe North2,2571,794701441700004,435
RushcliffeSutton Bonington1,741Loughborough and South Rushcliffe78539011444240001,357
RushcliffeThoroton334Newark22429134000261
RushcliffeTollerton1,865Rushcliffe North1,0123901330100001,455
RushcliffeTrent Bridge5,082Rushcliffe North1,4891,985161492810003,965
 Total74,738 30,22222,2142,7591,4891,62500058,309

The full details of these calculations are given on the Rushcliffe seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Sherwood

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Sherwood, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: SherwoodTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AshfieldHucknall Central5,738Broxtowe and Hucknall1,7921,685181294660004,018
AshfieldHucknall North7,189Broxtowe and Hucknall2,5972,012991691570005,034
AshfieldHucknall South5,597Broxtowe and Hucknall1,8351,77078180570003,920
AshfieldHucknall West7,436Broxtowe and Hucknall2,6372,13993283550005,207
GedlingBestwood St Albans1,570Sherwood5204781967170001,101
GedlingCalverton5,877Sherwood2,2581,48586217710004,117
GedlingDumbles2,337Sherwood1,2163481843110001,636
GedlingNewstead Abbey6,356Sherwood3,1261,073112118210004,450
GedlingPlains742Sherwood296167221916000520
GedlingRedhill27Sherwood10801000019
Newark and SherwoodBilsthorpe2,847Sherwood983930862100001,993
Newark and SherwoodBoughton2,536Sherwood855884224110001,776
Newark and SherwoodDover Beck464Newark29230011000324
Newark and SherwoodEdwinstowe and Clipstone8,055Sherwood2,8062,6198181550005,642
Newark and SherwoodFarnsfield2,206Newark1,03944947290001,546
Newark and SherwoodOllerton6,806Sherwood1,8602,74913112320004,766
Newark and SherwoodRainworth North and Rufford4,707Sherwood1,6181,5485861110003,296
Newark and SherwoodRainworth South and Blidworth4,659Sherwood1,3221,7775267450003,263
Newark and SherwoodSouthwell1,047Newark432143142016000733
 Total76,196 27,49422,2941,1111,80166100053,361

The full details of these calculations are given on the Sherwood seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Newark

The new seat of Newark is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Newark
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BassetlawEast Markham1,929Newark1,0553128700001,382
BassetlawRampton1,595Newark84539992500001,278
BassetlawTuxford and Trent3,395Newark1,421893144200002,370
Newark and SherwoodBalderton North and Coddington5,015Newark2,3771,1431058900003,714
Newark and SherwoodBalderton South3,663Newark1,782831548600002,753
Newark and SherwoodBeacon5,714Newark2,5471,75415426500004,720
Newark and SherwoodBridge3,953Newark1,3382,0103031900003,697
Newark and SherwoodCastle2,115Newark87269410914300001,818
Newark and SherwoodCollingham4,262Newark2,008724252700002,991
Newark and SherwoodDevon6,061Newark2,6282,4024818800005,266
Newark and SherwoodDover Beck1,884Newark1,20111810310001,333
Newark and SherwoodDover Beck473Sherwood30230310000336
Newark and SherwoodFarndon and Fernwood4,631Newark2,3826486118600003,277
Newark and SherwoodFarnsfield2,133Sherwood1,03944947290001,546
Newark and SherwoodLowdham2,218Newark1,71824758200002,025
Newark and SherwoodMuskham2,285Newark1,232236160400001,632
Newark and SherwoodSouthwell5,530Newark2,4838428071140004,147
Newark and SherwoodSouthwell1,012Sherwood45415414802000758
Newark and SherwoodSutton-on-Trent2,433Newark1,1082083691600001,701
Newark and SherwoodTrent2,263Newark1,44414264300001,653
RushcliffeBingham East3,841Newark1,510988165900002,672
RushcliffeBingham West3,523Newark1,396890118600002,410
RushcliffeCranmer1,845Newark1,221404831000001,718
RushcliffeEast Bridgford1,646Newark74725554510001,062
RushcliffeEast Bridgford609Rushcliffe276942021000393
RushcliffeThoroton1,668Newark1,04010024330001,170
RushcliffeThoroton351Rushcliffe21921511000247
 Total76,047 36,64516,9882,9791,4253200058,069

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Newark.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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