Newport: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Newport: Overview

Projection: LAB seat

Implied MP at 2017:Paul Flynn  (LAB)
County/Area:Gwent (Wales)
Electorate:84,945
Turnout:66.0%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB32,73558.4%
CON18,42232.8%
UKIP1,6312.9%
Plaid1,4262.5%
LIB1,4182.5%
Green3840.7%
OTH710.1%
LAB Majority14,31325.5%

See overview of other seats in Wales.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Newport been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Newport: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Newport

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Newport East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Newport East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Newport EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MonmouthshireCaldicot Castle1,736Monmouthshire382429162504804904
MonmouthshireDewstow1,370Monmouthshire2745451431051016931
MonmouthshireGreen Lane1,363Monmouthshire3115201630027016920
MonmouthshireMill2,242Monmouthshire69749817380200141,284
MonmouthshireRogiet1,303Monmouthshire3414034232026013857
MonmouthshireSevern1,269Monmouthshire256490152504009835
MonmouthshireThe Elms2,408Monmouthshire82865923450350161,606
MonmouthshireWest End1,438Monmouthshire2735911530025018952
NewportAlway5,427Newport1,0342,619861230450103,917
NewportBeechwood5,353Newport1,1352,0261401250700103,506
NewportLangstone3,620Monmouthshire1,3705974359026042,099
NewportLiswerry7,897Newport1,7923,671871790810155,825
NewportLlanwern2,645Monmouthshire7845352041025071,412
NewportRingland5,732Newport1,0772,6831151360340144,059
NewportSt Julians5,876Newport1,2792,3341871490950124,056
NewportVictoria4,280Newport9672,20513011302330103,658
 Total53,959 12,80020,8059661,1810881018836,821

The full details of these calculations are given on the Newport East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Newport West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Newport West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Newport WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
NewportAllt-yr-Yn6,368Newport2,2381,8469811149149004,491
NewportBettws (Newport)5,275Newport1,0892,572421073830003,878
NewportCaerleon6,214Torfaen1,8361,952104974274004,105
NewportGaer6,084Newport1,4362,61410611943120004,438
NewportGraig (Newport)4,723Caerphilly1,6901,20888772746003,136
NewportMalpas5,939Newport1,5032,2397410410458004,082
NewportMarshfield4,554Newport1,8021,066938727106003,181
NewportPillgwenlly4,067Newport8542,4531039343182003,728
NewportRogerstone7,743Caerphilly2,4012,3681121204490005,135
NewportShaftesbury3,548Newport7051,625407529122002,596
NewportStow Hill2,794Newport8441,33959583388002,421
NewportTredegar Park2,792Newport6671,44358521813002,251
 Total60,101 17,06522,7259771,1004971,0780043,442

The full details of these calculations are given on the Newport West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Newport

The new seat of Newport is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Newport
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
NewportAllt-yr-Yn6,659Newport West2,2381,8469811149149004,491
NewportAlway6,088Newport East1,0342,619861230450103,917
NewportBeechwood5,450Newport East1,1352,0261401250700103,506
NewportBettws (Newport)5,750Newport West1,0892,572421073830003,878
NewportGaer6,579Newport West1,4362,61410611943120004,438
NewportLiswerry9,054Newport East1,7923,671871790810155,825
NewportMalpas6,050Newport West1,5032,2397410410458004,082
NewportMarshfield4,716Newport West1,8021,066938727106003,181
NewportPillgwenlly5,526Newport West8542,4531039343182003,728
NewportRingland6,310Newport East1,0772,6831151360340144,059
NewportShaftesbury3,848Newport West7051,625407529122002,596
NewportSt Julians6,304Newport East1,2792,3341871490950124,056
NewportStow Hill3,588Newport West8441,33959583388002,421
NewportTredegar Park3,338Newport West6671,44358521813002,251
NewportVictoria5,685Newport East9672,20513011302330103,658
 Total84,945 18,42232,7351,4181,6313841,42607156,087

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Newport. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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