Newport: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Newport: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Paul Flynn  (LAB)
County/Area: Gwent (Wales)
Electorate: 75,986
Turnout: 73.8%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB32,73958.4%
CON18,34132.7%
UKIP1,7563.1%
Plaid1,3762.5%
LIB1,3752.5%
Green4290.8%
OTH680.1%
LAB Majority14,39825.7%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Newport : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Newport constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position8° Left10° Left
National Position1° Nat3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %58%53%52%
British Identity26%26%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born95%95%88%
Good Education38%36%39%
Good Job49%46%51%
High SEC51%46%51%
Average Age51.049.648.5
ABC1 Class51%47%53%

Newport ranks #180 for "Leave", #469 for "Right" and #333 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Newport: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Newport been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Newport

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Newport East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Newport East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Newport EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MonmouthshireCaldicot Castle1,404Monmouthshire3393931531012402904
MonmouthshireDewstow1,445Monmouthshire2164811940016508929
MonmouthshireGreen Lane1,430Monmouthshire365457857012022921
MonmouthshireMill1,998Monmouthshire7314482148080291,285
MonmouthshireRogiet1,332Monmouthshire4242835558023013856
MonmouthshireSevern1,297Monmouthshire193535261406204834
MonmouthshireThe Elms2,497Monmouthshire8466831936040201,608
MonmouthshireWest End1,481Monmouthshire2286332433021014953
NewportAlway6,088Newport1,0092,7165980045073,916
NewportBeechwood5,450Newport1,2681,88316617508063,506
NewportLangstone3,263Monmouthshire1,407636311507022,098
NewportLiswerry9,054Newport1,5854,009551060550145,824
NewportLlanwern2,194Monmouthshire7805043744042051,412
NewportRingland6,310Newport9272,790101150083084,059
NewportSt Julians6,304Newport1,3922,2121951890530154,056
NewportVictoria5,685Newport1,0922,14213310401710183,660
 Total57,232 12,80220,8059641,1800883018736,821

The full details of these calculations are given on the Newport East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Newport West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Newport West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Newport WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
NewportAllt-yr-yn6,659Newport2,3331,86796894959004,493
NewportBettws (Newport)5,750Newport1,1782,100539133172003,879
NewportCaerleon6,083Torfaen1,8312,018132584321004,103
NewportGaer6,579Newport1,2772,82988805158004,437
NewportGraig (Newport)4,649Caerphilly1,7791,2268130714003,137
NewportMalpas6,050Newport1,4122,288149123244004,081
NewportMarshfield4,716Newport1,776998217781695003,180
NewportPillgwenlly5,526Newport9132,4441176010184003,728
NewportRogerstone7,613Caerphilly2,3872,49296601782005,134
NewportShaftesbury3,848Newport7461,4852913140164002,595
NewportStow Hill3,588Newport8541,39966153550002,419
NewportTredegar Park3,338Newport5791,5773417935002,251
 Total64,399 17,06522,7239751,1004961,0780043,437

The full details of these calculations are given on the Newport West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Newport

The new seat of Newport is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Newport
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
NewportAllt-yr-Yn6,368Newport West2,3331,86796894959004,493
NewportAlway5,427Newport East1,0092,7165980045073,916
NewportBeechwood5,353Newport East1,2681,88316617508063,506
NewportBettws (Newport)5,275Newport West1,1782,100539133172003,879
NewportGaer6,084Newport West1,2772,82988805158004,437
NewportLiswerry7,897Newport East1,5854,009551060550145,824
NewportMalpas5,939Newport West1,4122,288149123244004,081
NewportMarshfield4,554Newport West1,776998217781695003,180
NewportPillgwenlly4,067Newport West9132,4441176010184003,728
NewportRingland5,732Newport East9272,790101150083084,059
NewportShaftesbury3,548Newport West7461,4852913140164002,595
NewportSt Julians5,876Newport East1,3922,2121951890530154,056
NewportStow Hill2,794Newport West8541,39966153550002,419
NewportTredegar Park2,792Newport West5791,5773417935002,251
NewportVictoria4,280Newport East1,0922,14213310401710183,660
 Total75,986 18,34132,7391,3751,7564291,37606856,084

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Newport.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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