Newry and Armagh: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Newry and Armagh: Overview

 Projection: SF seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Mickey Brady  (SF)
County/Area: Armagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 75,803
Turnout: 68.5%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
SF25,49349.1%
DUP11,95923.0%
SDLP9,10817.5%
UUP4,1338.0%
MIN1,2582.4%
Green40.0%
SF Majority13,53426.0%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Newry and Armagh: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Newry and Armagh been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Newry and Armagh

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Down South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Down South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Down SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East775Down Mid629119700154160520
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha689Down Mid43322560098350464
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland992Down South8011825300197200668
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRathfriland3,319Down South266393844006596702,229
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey240Newry and Armagh254130076160161
Newry, Mourne and DownAnnalong2,863Down South95515426008612701,924
Newry, Mourne and DownBallydugan2,543Down South52457396007327301,710
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward2,639Down South54474412007607501,775
Newry, Mourne and DownBinnian2,827Down South94509422008512601,902
Newry, Mourne and DownBurren2,742Down South51823141007596901,843
Newry, Mourne and DownCastlewellan3,032Down South62545474008738602,040
Newry, Mourne and DownCathedral2,831Down South32990137006548901,902
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,194Down South6117632000189570803
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly560Newry and Armagh51263100177370376
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy412Down Mid21611110065200278
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryleckagh3,084Down South58926161008547702,076
Newry, Mourne and DownDonard2,681Down South89482400008072501,803
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumaness2,823Down South57507441008138101,899
Newry, Mourne and DownDundrum2,920Down South59525456008418301,964
Newry, Mourne and DownHilltown3,381Down South631,015174009368502,273
Newry, Mourne and DownKilkeel2,708Down South90487404008152501,821
Newry, Mourne and DownKnocknashinna3,161Down South361,1061530073210002,127
Newry, Mourne and DownLecale2,870Down South321,004138006659101,930
Newry, Mourne and DownLisnacree3,291Down South109592491009913002,213
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge3,004Down South56901156008327502,020
Newry, Mourne and DownMurlough2,768Down South92497412008332601,860
Newry, Mourne and DownQuoile2,580Down South29902125005978201,735
Newry, Mourne and DownRostrevor3,226Down South60968167008938102,169
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's754Newry and Armagh61694200238500505
Newry, Mourne and DownStrangford2,655Down South30930128006148401,786
Newry, Mourne and DownTollymore2,772Down South92499412008342601,863
Newry, Mourne and DownWarrenpoint3,350Down South631,005173009268302,250
 Total75,686 2,00117,8798,8660020,3261,817050,889

The full details of these calculations are given on the Down South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Fermanagh and South TyroneTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall513Newry and Armagh2001400416470389
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches377Upper Bann1471000312150286
Fermanagh and OmaghBallinamallard2,144Fermanagh and South Tyrone8861070086101401,625
Fermanagh and OmaghBelcoo and Garrison1,705Fermanagh and South Tyrone513710066762601,292
Fermanagh and OmaghBelleek and Boa1,896Fermanagh and South Tyrone783950075411201,438
Fermanagh and OmaghBoho, Cleenish and Letterbreen2,059Fermanagh and South Tyrone620860078173101,561
Fermanagh and OmaghBrookeborough1,476Fermanagh and South Tyrone34957005707001,118
Fermanagh and OmaghCastlecoole2,339Fermanagh and South Tyrone8806700327435001,772
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrygonnelly1,910Fermanagh and South Tyrone575800077572901,448
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrylin1,744Fermanagh and South Tyrone524730066912701,321
Fermanagh and OmaghDonagh1,458Fermanagh and South Tyrone34557005699001,106
Fermanagh and OmaghEderney and Kesh1,839Fermanagh and South Tyrone759920065241201,393
Fermanagh and OmaghErne2,190Fermanagh and South Tyrone8256300296964701,660
Fermanagh and OmaghFlorence Court and Kinawley1,684Fermanagh and South Tyrone506700066682601,276
Fermanagh and OmaghIrvinestown2,301Fermanagh and South Tyrone9491150086561501,743
Fermanagh and OmaghLisbellaw2,150Fermanagh and South Tyrone8096200296834701,630
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnarrick2,177Fermanagh and South Tyrone8196200296934701,650
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnaskea1,941Fermanagh and South Tyrone45975006929001,469
Fermanagh and OmaghMaguiresbridge2,063Fermanagh and South Tyrone48880007987001,562
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownbutler1,602Fermanagh and South Tyrone38062005767001,214
Fermanagh and OmaghPortora2,191Fermanagh and South Tyrone8256300296964701,660
Fermanagh and OmaghRosslea1,359Fermanagh and South Tyrone32253004650001,029
Fermanagh and OmaghRossorry1,705Fermanagh and South Tyrone6424900225413701,291
Fermanagh and OmaghTempo1,746Fermanagh and South Tyrone722870064971101,323
Mid UlsterAugher and Clogher2,240Fermanagh and South Tyrone765910010831001,697
Mid UlsterAughnacloy2,368Fermanagh and South Tyrone809960010878001,793
Mid UlsterBallygawley1,965Fermanagh and South Tyrone67180008729001,488
Mid UlsterBallysaggart3,128Fermanagh and South Tyrone1,1618600191,0218102,368
Mid UlsterCaledon2,434Fermanagh and South Tyrone832990010903001,844
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield1,606Fermanagh and South Tyrone54865007595001,215
Mid UlsterFivemiletown2,136Fermanagh and South Tyrone72987009792001,617
Mid UlsterKillyman1,885Fermanagh and South Tyrone7005200126164901,429
Mid UlsterKillymeal2,636Fermanagh and South Tyrone9807300168606901,998
Mid UlsterMoy2,522Fermanagh and South Tyrone9366900168246501,910
Mid UlsterMoygashel2,429Fermanagh and South Tyrone9026700157946301,841
Mid UlsterMullaghmore2,681Fermanagh and South Tyrone9957400168767002,031
 Total70,599 24,3552,5890042425,232887053,487

The full details of these calculations are given on the Fermanagh and South Tyrone seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Newry and Armagh

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Newry and Armagh, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Newry and ArmaghTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBlackwatertown3,626Newry and Armagh218489539001,229602,481
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCathedral3,505Newry and Armagh211473522001,188602,400
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDemesne3,531Newry and Armagh212476526001,198602,418
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonHamiltonsbawn3,121Newry and Armagh372180953005498302,137
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKeady3,502Newry and Armagh210473521001,187602,397
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland538Down South6939159009570369
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall2,951Newry and Armagh1781301,043006066302,020
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon91Upper Bann543200182061
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMarkethill3,404Newry and Armagh4071961,040005989002,331
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonNavan3,165Newry and Armagh190427471001,073602,167
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRichhill3,449Newry and Armagh4121991,053006069202,362
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonSeagahan3,423Newry and Armagh4091971,044006019102,342
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonTandragee3,531Upper Bann4212031,078006209402,416
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Mall3,449Newry and Armagh207465514001,169602,361
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey2,623Newry and Armagh354173380090210301,795
Newry, Mourne and DownBallybot3,559Newry and Armagh48567458001,22414002,437
Newry, Mourne and DownBessbrook3,285Newry and Armagh113385237001,513002,248
Newry, Mourne and DownCamlough2,589Newry and Armagh89303187001,192001,771
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossmaglen2,518Newry and Armagh87295182001,160001,724
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly2,622Newry and Armagh364173380090110301,795
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumalane3,322Newry and Armagh44529428001,14213002,273
Newry, Mourne and DownFathom2,822Newry and Armagh384493640097111101,933
Newry, Mourne and DownForkhill2,555Newry and Armagh88300184001,176001,748
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge297Down South96534009140203
Newry, Mourne and DownMullaghbane2,777Newry and Armagh96325200001,279001,900
Newry, Mourne and DownNewtownhamilton2,574Newry and Armagh89302186001,185001,762
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's2,695Newry and Armagh364293470092610601,844
Newry, Mourne and DownWhitecross2,742Newry and Armagh95322198001,263001,878
 Total78,266 4,4249,05613,1760025,6621,255053,573

The full details of these calculations are given on the Newry and Armagh seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Newry and Armagh

The new seat of Newry and Armagh is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Newry and Armagh
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBlackwatertown3,833Newry and Armagh218489539001,229602,481
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCathedral3,047Newry and Armagh211473522001,188602,400
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDemesne3,454Newry and Armagh212476526001,198602,418
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonHamiltonsbawn3,479Newry and Armagh372180953005498302,137
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKeady3,500Newry and Armagh210473521001,187602,397
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall547Fermanagh and South Tyrone562115501114100357
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall3,138Newry and Armagh322123888036566002,052
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMarkethill3,525Newry and Armagh4071961,040005989002,331
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonNavan3,516Newry and Armagh190427471001,073602,167
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRichhill3,449Newry and Armagh4121991,053006069202,362
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonSeagahan3,664Newry and Armagh4091971,044006019102,342
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Mall3,239Newry and Armagh207465514001,169602,361
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey222Down South340300082100165
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey2,418Newry and Armagh344313210089610901,791
Newry, Mourne and DownBallybot3,172Newry and Armagh48567458001,22414002,437
Newry, Mourne and DownBessbrook3,020Newry and Armagh113385237001,513002,248
Newry, Mourne and DownCamlough2,828Newry and Armagh89303187001,192001,771
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossmaglen2,752Newry and Armagh87295182001,160001,724
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly506Down South7966500190250383
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly2,360Newry and Armagh344473040088811501,788
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumalane3,029Newry and Armagh44529428001,14213002,273
Newry, Mourne and DownFathom2,808Newry and Armagh384493640097111101,933
Newry, Mourne and DownForkhill2,802Newry and Armagh88300184001,176001,748
Newry, Mourne and DownMullaghbane2,835Newry and Armagh96325200001,279001,900
Newry, Mourne and DownNewtownhamilton2,709Newry and Armagh89302186001,185001,762
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's705Down South91318500255340514
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's2,514Newry and Armagh334673040090912201,835
Newry, Mourne and DownWhitecross2,732Newry and Armagh95322198001,263001,878
 Total75,803 4,1339,10811,9590425,4931,258051,955

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Newry and Armagh.


© 2018 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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