Newry and Armagh: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Newry and Armagh: Overview

 Projection: SF seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Mickey Brady  (SF)
County/Area: Armagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 74,280
Turnout: 69.4%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
SF24,57647.7%
DUP12,59424.4%
SDLP8,77517.0%
UUP4,2008.1%
MIN1,4122.7%
SF Majority11,98223.2%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Newry and Armagh: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Newry and Armagh been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Newry and Armagh

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Down South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Down South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Down SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East775Down West629119700154160520
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha689Down West43322560098350464
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland992Down South8011825300197200668
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRathfriland3,319Down South266393844006596702,229
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey240Newry and Armagh254130076160161
Newry, Mourne and DownAnnalong2,863Down South95515426008612701,924
Newry, Mourne and DownBallydugan2,543Down South52457396007327301,710
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward2,639Down South54474412007607501,775
Newry, Mourne and DownBinnian2,827Down South94509422008512601,902
Newry, Mourne and DownBurren2,742Down South51823141007596901,843
Newry, Mourne and DownCastlewellan3,032Down South62545474008738602,040
Newry, Mourne and DownCathedral2,831Down South32990137006548901,902
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,194Strangford6117632000189570803
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly560Newry and Armagh51263100177370376
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy412Strangford21611110065200278
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryleckagh3,084Down South58926161008547702,076
Newry, Mourne and DownDonard2,681Down South89482400008072501,803
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumaness2,823Down South57507441008138101,899
Newry, Mourne and DownDundrum2,920Down South59525456008418301,964
Newry, Mourne and DownHilltown3,381Down South631,015174009368502,273
Newry, Mourne and DownKilkeel2,708Down South90487404008152501,821
Newry, Mourne and DownKnocknashinna3,161Down South361,1061530073210002,127
Newry, Mourne and DownLecale2,870Down South321,004138006659101,930
Newry, Mourne and DownLisnacree3,291Down South109592491009913002,213
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge3,004Down South56901156008327502,020
Newry, Mourne and DownMurlough2,768Down South92497412008332601,860
Newry, Mourne and DownQuoile2,580Down South29902125005978201,735
Newry, Mourne and DownRostrevor3,226Down South60968167008938102,169
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's754Newry and Armagh61694200238500505
Newry, Mourne and DownStrangford2,655Down South30930128006148401,786
Newry, Mourne and DownTollymore2,772Down South92499412008342601,863
Newry, Mourne and DownWarrenpoint3,350Down South631,005173009268302,250
 Total75,686 2,00117,8798,8660020,3261,817050,889

The full details of these calculations are given on the Down South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Newry and Armagh

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Newry and Armagh, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Newry and ArmaghTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBlackwatertown3,626Upper Bann and Blackwater218489539001,229602,481
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCathedral3,505Newry and Armagh211473522001,188602,400
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDemesne3,531Newry and Armagh212476526001,198602,418
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonHamiltonsbawn3,121Newry and Armagh372180953005498302,137
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKeady3,502Newry and Armagh210473521001,187602,397
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland538Down South6939159009570369
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall2,951Upper Bann and Blackwater1781301,043006066302,020
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon91Newry and Armagh543200182061
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMarkethill3,404Newry and Armagh4071961,040005989002,331
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonNavan3,165Newry and Armagh190427471001,073602,167
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRichhill3,449Newry and Armagh4121991,053006069202,362
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonSeagahan3,423Newry and Armagh4091971,044006019102,342
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonTandragee3,531Newry and Armagh4212031,078006209402,416
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Mall3,449Newry and Armagh207465514001,169602,361
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey2,623Newry and Armagh354173380090210301,795
Newry, Mourne and DownBallybot3,559Newry and Armagh48567458001,22414002,437
Newry, Mourne and DownBessbrook3,285Newry and Armagh113385237001,513002,248
Newry, Mourne and DownCamlough2,589Newry and Armagh89303187001,192001,771
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossmaglen2,518Newry and Armagh87295182001,160001,724
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly2,622Newry and Armagh364173380090110301,795
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumalane3,322Newry and Armagh44529428001,14213002,273
Newry, Mourne and DownFathom2,822Newry and Armagh384493640097111101,933
Newry, Mourne and DownForkhill2,555Newry and Armagh88300184001,176001,748
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge297Down South96534009140203
Newry, Mourne and DownMullaghbane2,777Newry and Armagh96325200001,279001,900
Newry, Mourne and DownNewtownhamilton2,574Newry and Armagh89302186001,185001,762
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's2,695Newry and Armagh364293470092610601,844
Newry, Mourne and DownWhitecross2,742Newry and Armagh95322198001,263001,878
 Total78,266 4,4249,05613,1760025,6621,255053,573

The full details of these calculations are given on the Newry and Armagh seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Upper Bann

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Upper Bann, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Upper BannTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonAghagallon3,289Upper Bann and Blackwater246298592009551202,103
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBallybay3,068Upper Bann and Blackwater231901,0780043213001,961
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East2,172Down West346106639002455201,388
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge North2,885Down West459141849003266901,844
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge South3,166Down West504155931003577602,023
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge West3,704Down West5901821,090004188902,369
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBleary3,054Down West2571568750053113401,953
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBrownlow4,257Upper Bann and Blackwater3582181,2190073918702,721
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCorcrain3,548Upper Bann and Blackwater2671051,2460049915102,268
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCraigavon Centre3,710Upper Bann and Blackwater3121901,0620064416402,372
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDerrytrasna3,179Upper Bann and Blackwater2671639100055214002,032
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney2,959Down West361381,1610015517801,893
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGilford3,251Down West518159957003677802,079
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKernan3,233Upper Bann and Blackwater2721659250056114202,065
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKillycomain3,016Upper Bann and Blackwater227891,0600042412801,928
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKnocknashane2,836Upper Bann and Blackwater212257510008231001,812
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLough Road3,334Upper Bann and Blackwater250303600009691202,134
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland1,741Down South27785512001964201,112
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMagheralin2,952Down West221268530008581101,888
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon3,151Newry and Armagh237931,1070044413402,015
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMourneview3,375Upper Bann and Blackwater253306607009801202,158
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonParklake3,558Upper Bann and Blackwater267323639001,0341302,276
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonShankill4,072Upper Bann and Blackwater306369731001,1831402,603
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches3,206Upper Bann and Blackwater241941,1260045213602,049
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonWaringstown3,452Down West420441,3540018120702,206
 Total80,168 7,8994,39722,3100014,3252,321051,252

The full details of these calculations are given on the Upper Bann seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Newry and Armagh

The new seat of Newry and Armagh is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Newry and Armagh
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCathedral3,022Newry and Armagh211473522001,188602,400
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDemesne3,426Newry and Armagh212476526001,198602,418
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonHamiltonsbawn3,450Newry and Armagh372180953005498302,137
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKeady3,471Newry and Armagh210473521001,187602,397
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon87Newry and Armagh733200134059
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon3,057Upper Bann235941,1070044913202,017
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMarkethill3,496Newry and Armagh4071961,040005989002,331
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonNavan3,487Newry and Armagh190427471001,073602,167
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRichhill3,421Newry and Armagh4121991,053006069202,362
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonSeagahan3,634Newry and Armagh4091971,044006019102,342
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonTandragee3,409Newry and Armagh4212031,078006209402,416
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Mall3,212Newry and Armagh207465514001,169602,361
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey2,399Newry and Armagh344313210089610901,791
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey221Down South340300082100165
Newry, Mourne and DownBallybot3,146Newry and Armagh48567458001,22414002,437
Newry, Mourne and DownBessbrook2,995Newry and Armagh113385237001,513002,248
Newry, Mourne and DownCamlough2,805Newry and Armagh89303187001,192001,771
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossmaglen2,729Newry and Armagh87295182001,160001,724
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly2,340Newry and Armagh344473040088711501,787
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly503Down South7966500191250384
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumalane3,004Newry and Armagh44529428001,14213002,273
Newry, Mourne and DownFathom2,785Newry and Armagh384493640097111101,933
Newry, Mourne and DownForkhill2,779Newry and Armagh88300184001,176001,748
Newry, Mourne and DownMullaghbane2,812Newry and Armagh96325200001,279001,900
Newry, Mourne and DownNewtownhamilton2,687Newry and Armagh89302186001,185001,762
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's701Down South91318500255340514
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's2,493Newry and Armagh334673040090912201,835
Newry, Mourne and DownWhitecross2,709Newry and Armagh95322198001,263001,878
 Total74,280 4,2008,77512,5940024,5761,412051,557

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Newry and Armagh.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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