Norfolk North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Norfolk North: Overview

 Projection: LIB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Norman Lamb  (LIB)
County/Area: Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 71,657
Turnout: 76.8%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LIB25,11045.6%
CON23,31742.4%
LAB6,43011.7%
UKIP830.2%
Green740.1%
LIB Majority1,7933.3%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Norfolk North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Norfolk North constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerLIBCONCON
Economic Position1° Right8° Right
National Position6° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %58%57%52%
British Identity29%27%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born91%89%88%
Good Education39%37%39%
Good Job53%53%51%
High SEC50%53%51%
Average Age49.249.448.5
ABC1 Class53%55%53%

Norfolk North ranks #181 for "Leave", #295 for "Right" and #212 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Norfolk North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Norfolk North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Norfolk North

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Broadland

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Broadland, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: BroadlandTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BroadlandAcle2,280Broadland1,034462856550001,651
BroadlandAylsham5,987Norfolk North2,2431,40153383740004,334
BroadlandBlofield with South Walsham4,535Broadland1,9211,15011779150003,282
BroadlandBrundall4,711Broadland2,09595525371340003,408
BroadlandBurlingham2,149Broadland8475746358130001,555
BroadlandBuxton2,102Broadland82645014846510001,521
BroadlandColtishall2,194Broadland9644791073180001,589
BroadlandDrayton North2,649Broadland1,0645951935870001,917
BroadlandDrayton South1,908Broadland8873521033630001,381
BroadlandEynesford2,680Broadland1,09956618853350001,941
BroadlandGreat Witchingham2,014Broadland861480953190001,458
BroadlandHevingham2,325Broadland1,1143581148980001,683
BroadlandHorsford and Felthorpe3,982Broadland1,6339192289560002,881
BroadlandMarshes2,639Broadland1,0916379874100001,910
BroadlandPlumstead2,551Broadland1,14848768371050001,845
BroadlandReepham2,208Broadland92440319341370001,598
BroadlandSpixworth with St Faiths4,404Broadland1,673956406139130003,187
BroadlandTaverham North4,388Broadland1,886801359105240003,175
BroadlandTaverham South3,763Broadland1,80062715661810002,725
BroadlandWroxham4,135Broadland1,778829246128130002,994
North NorfolkAstley1,822Broadland76734782161060001,318
North NorfolkLancaster North2,810Broadland1,04277313628550002,034
North NorfolkLancaster South3,373Broadland1,286841172105370002,441
North NorfolkThe Raynhams2,079Broadland8784081288830001,505
North NorfolkWalsingham1,773Broadland7713486849460001,282
North NorfolkWensum1,874Broadland77639011036450001,357
 Total77,335 32,40816,5884,4491,59493300055,972

The full details of these calculations are given on the Broadland seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Norfolk North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Norfolk North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Norfolk NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North NorfolkBriston1,997Broadland671150684000001,505
North NorfolkChaucer1,839Norfolk North62564697000001,386
North NorfolkCorpusty1,900Norfolk North642139651000001,432
North NorfolkCromer Town3,016Norfolk North8453391,089000002,273
North NorfolkErpingham1,908Norfolk North654127657000001,438
North NorfolkGaunt2,006Norfolk North64795771000001,513
North NorfolkGlaven Valley1,671Norfolk North49953707000001,259
North NorfolkHappisburgh1,950Norfolk North66682721000001,469
North NorfolkHigh Heath1,551Norfolk North51779573000001,169
North NorfolkHolt3,116Norfolk North8092301,309000002,348
North NorfolkHoveton1,586Norfolk North666112416000001,194
North NorfolkMundesley3,462Norfolk North1,1912691,149000002,609
North NorfolkNorth Walsham East3,434Norfolk North8392931,455000002,587
North NorfolkNorth Walsham North3,434Norfolk North8224031,362000002,587
North NorfolkNorth Walsham West3,475Norfolk North8834291,306000002,618
North NorfolkPoppyland1,951Norfolk North719110641000001,470
North NorfolkPriory3,198Norfolk North1,0562121,141000002,409
North NorfolkRoughton1,796Norfolk North661135557000001,353
North NorfolkScottow2,428Norfolk North809196824000001,829
North NorfolkSheringham North2,925Norfolk North8122351,157000002,204
North NorfolkSheringham South3,096Norfolk North1,0541291,149000002,332
North NorfolkSt Benet1,747Norfolk North54278696000001,316
North NorfolkStalham and Sutton3,526Norfolk North1,0203811,255000002,656
North NorfolkSuffield Park3,313Norfolk North9373481,211000002,496
North NorfolkThe Runtons1,763Norfolk North60388637000001,328
North NorfolkWaterside3,439Norfolk North1,2301791,181000002,590
North NorfolkWaxham1,789Norfolk North62597626000001,348
North NorfolkWorstead1,949Norfolk North701127639000001,467
 Total69,265 21,7455,17925,2610000052,185

The full details of these calculations are given on the Norfolk North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Norfolk North

The new seat of Norfolk North is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Norfolk North
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BroadlandAylsham5,972Broadland2,2431,40153383740004,334
North NorfolkChaucer1,920Norfolk North62564697000001,386
North NorfolkCorpusty1,872Norfolk North642139651000001,432
North NorfolkCromer Town2,825Norfolk North8453391,089000002,273
North NorfolkErpingham1,898Norfolk North654127657000001,438
North NorfolkGaunt1,958Norfolk North64795771000001,513
North NorfolkGlaven Valley1,719Norfolk North49953707000001,259
North NorfolkHappisburgh2,013Norfolk North66682721000001,469
North NorfolkHigh Heath1,549Norfolk North51779573000001,169
North NorfolkHolt2,868Norfolk North8092301,309000002,348
North NorfolkHoveton1,834Norfolk North666112416000001,194
North NorfolkMundesley3,328Norfolk North1,1912691,149000002,609
North NorfolkNorth Walsham East3,305Norfolk North8392931,455000002,587
North NorfolkNorth Walsham North3,135Norfolk North8224031,362000002,587
North NorfolkNorth Walsham West3,308Norfolk North8834291,306000002,618
North NorfolkPoppyland1,988Norfolk North719110641000001,470
North NorfolkPriory3,164Norfolk North1,0562121,141000002,409
North NorfolkRoughton1,896Norfolk North661135557000001,353
North NorfolkScottow1,956Norfolk North809196824000001,829
North NorfolkSheringham North2,761Norfolk North8122351,157000002,204
North NorfolkSheringham South3,116Norfolk North1,0541291,149000002,332
North NorfolkSt Benet1,781Norfolk North54278696000001,316
North NorfolkStalham and Sutton3,355Norfolk North1,0203811,255000002,656
North NorfolkSuffield Park3,177Norfolk North9373481,211000002,496
North NorfolkThe Runtons1,754Norfolk North60388637000001,328
North NorfolkWaterside3,535Norfolk North1,2301791,181000002,590
North NorfolkWaxham1,764Norfolk North62597626000001,348
North NorfolkWorstead1,906Norfolk North701127639000001,467
 Total71,657 23,3176,43025,110837400055,014

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Norfolk North.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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