Norfolk North West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Norfolk North West: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Henry Bellingham  (CON)
County/Area: Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 72,805
Turnout: 68.9%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON30,51160.8%
LAB15,82731.6%
UKIP1,5603.1%
LIB1,3982.8%
Green8521.7%
CON Majority14,68429.3%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Norfolk North West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Norfolk North West constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position11° Right8° Right
National Position16° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %65%57%52%
British Identity23%27%29%
Good Health40%47%48%
UK Born92%89%88%
Good Education30%37%39%
Good Job41%53%51%
High SEC43%53%51%
Average Age52.549.448.5
ABC1 Class42%55%53%

Norfolk North West ranks #62 for "Leave", #83 for "Right" and #25 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Norfolk North West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Norfolk North West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Norfolk North West

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Norfolk North West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Norfolk North West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Norfolk North WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
King's Lynn and West NorfolkBrancaster979Norfolk North West5271092304000663
King's Lynn and West NorfolkBurnham1,300Norfolk North West63363168115000880
King's Lynn and West NorfolkClenchwarton1,606Norfolk North West751275282850001,087
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDersingham3,521Norfolk North West1,58238532086120002,385
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDocking1,469Norfolk North West70924722215000995
King's Lynn and West NorfolkFairstead4,915Norfolk North West1,3821,78733103240003,329
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGayton1,699Norfolk North West8352071360350001,150
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGaywood Chase3,825Norfolk North West1,1751,2602291430002,591
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGaywood North Bank5,793Norfolk North West2,2041,52553115270003,924
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGrimston1,773Norfolk North West8012184638970001,200
King's Lynn and West NorfolkHeacham3,604Norfolk North West1,6436606555180002,441
King's Lynn and West NorfolkHunstanton4,114Norfolk North West1,96762010281180002,788
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Lynn4,607Norfolk North West1,1251,75417200230003,119
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Wootton1,861Norfolk North West876330123930001,260
King's Lynn and West NorfolkOld Gaywood1,453Norfolk North West516367154144000983
King's Lynn and West NorfolkPriory1,860Norfolk North West68453882560001,261
King's Lynn and West NorfolkRudham1,588Norfolk North West800181454370001,076
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSnettisham3,059Norfolk North West1,4405277811170002,073
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth and West Lynn3,788Norfolk North West1,1641,2842269270002,566
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth Wootton3,414Norfolk North West1,74933749181590002,312
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSpellowfields3,575Norfolk North West1,75850319109330002,422
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSpringwood1,544Norfolk North West5173741242470001,046
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSt Margarets with St Nicholas3,665Norfolk North West1,1521,07112631850002,483
King's Lynn and West NorfolkValley Hill1,712Norfolk North West792308361490001,159
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWalpole1,743Norfolk North West8152621182120001,182
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWest Winch3,594Norfolk North West1,8104284914170002,435
 Total72,061 29,40715,6201,3921,53985200048,810

The full details of these calculations are given on the Norfolk North West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Norfolk South West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Norfolk South West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Norfolk South WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BrecklandAll Saints and Wayland2,185Norfolk Mid1,122230615800001,471
BrecklandAshill558Norfolk Mid2218927390000376
BrecklandBedingfield2,252Norfolk South West1,244185563100001,516
BrecklandForest2,267Norfolk South West914525612600001,526
BrecklandGuiltcross2,209Norfolk Mid1,063385281100001,487
BrecklandHarling and Heathlands2,269Norfolk Mid1,268187512100001,527
BrecklandLaunditch26Norfolk Mid15200000017
BrecklandNar Valley1,884Norfolk South West8142541019900001,268
BrecklandSwaffham5,456Norfolk South West2,9494561937500003,673
BrecklandThe Buckenhams and Banham1,116Norfolk Mid5361812850000750
BrecklandThetford Boudica3,817Norfolk South West1,28494616717300002,570
BrecklandThetford Burrell4,473Norfolk South West1,1751,54311218100003,011
BrecklandThetford Castle4,608Norfolk South West1,6091,08822318200003,102
BrecklandThetford Priory5,427Norfolk South West1,3021,93713527800003,652
King's Lynn and West NorfolkAirfield4,152Norfolk South West1,81357520919800002,795
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDenton5,963Norfolk South West2,5301,16815216300004,013
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDownham Old Town1,987Norfolk South West693494737700001,337
King's Lynn and West NorfolkEast Downham2,337Norfolk South West967527512800001,573
King's Lynn and West NorfolkEmneth with Outwell3,567Norfolk South West1,6524977417800002,401
King's Lynn and West NorfolkHilgay with Denver1,801Norfolk South West1,035145131900001,212
King's Lynn and West NorfolkMershe Lande1,850Norfolk South West7543145212600001,246
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Downham1,557Norfolk South West637316464900001,048
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth Downham1,633Norfolk South West6502726611100001,099
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSt Lawrence1,891Norfolk South West982243173000001,272
King's Lynn and West NorfolkUpwell and Delph3,576Norfolk South West1,5915779314500002,406
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWalton1,988Norfolk North West1,10420762100001,338
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWatlington1,846Norfolk South West6374311116500001,244
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWiggenhall1,578Norfolk South West577333718100001,062
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWimbotsham with Fincham1,882Norfolk South West1,062150332200001,267
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWissey1,715Norfolk South West692324558300001,154
 Total77,870 32,89214,5812,3652,575000052,413

The full details of these calculations are given on the Norfolk South West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Norfolk North West

The new seat of Norfolk North West is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Norfolk North West
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
King's Lynn and West NorfolkBrancaster1,279Norfolk North West5271092304000663
King's Lynn and West NorfolkBurnham1,435Norfolk North West63363168115000880
King's Lynn and West NorfolkClenchwarton1,791Norfolk North West751275282850001,087
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDersingham3,979Norfolk North West1,58238532086120002,385
King's Lynn and West NorfolkDocking1,515Norfolk North West70924722215000995
King's Lynn and West NorfolkFairstead3,643Norfolk North West1,3821,78733103240003,329
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGayton1,869Norfolk North West8352071360350001,150
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGaywood Chase3,168Norfolk North West1,1751,2602291430002,591
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGaywood North Bank5,591Norfolk North West2,2041,52553115270003,924
King's Lynn and West NorfolkGrimston1,900Norfolk North West8012184638970001,200
King's Lynn and West NorfolkHeacham3,944Norfolk North West1,6436606555180002,441
King's Lynn and West NorfolkHunstanton4,474Norfolk North West1,96762010281180002,788
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Lynn3,214Norfolk North West1,1251,75417200230003,119
King's Lynn and West NorfolkNorth Wootton1,911Norfolk North West876330123930001,260
King's Lynn and West NorfolkOld Gaywood1,545Norfolk North West516367154144000983
King's Lynn and West NorfolkPriory2,035Norfolk North West68453882560001,261
King's Lynn and West NorfolkRudham1,808Norfolk North West800181454370001,076
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSnettisham3,432Norfolk North West1,4405277811170002,073
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth and West Lynn3,058Norfolk North West1,1641,2842269270002,566
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSouth Wootton3,634Norfolk North West1,74933749181590002,312
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSpellowfields3,696Norfolk North West1,75850319109330002,422
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSpringwood1,562Norfolk North West5173741242470001,046
King's Lynn and West NorfolkSt Margarets with St Nicholas2,658Norfolk North West1,1521,07112631850002,483
King's Lynn and West NorfolkValley Hill1,890Norfolk North West792308361490001,159
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWalpole1,797Norfolk North West8152621182120001,182
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWalton2,126Norfolk South West1,10420762100001,338
King's Lynn and West NorfolkWest Winch3,851Norfolk North West1,8104284914170002,435
 Total72,805 30,51115,8271,3981,56085200050,148

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Norfolk North West.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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