Northampton North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Northampton North: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Michael Ellis  (CON)
County/Area: Northamptonshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 71,716
Turnout: 69.8%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON24,44548.9%
LAB21,77643.5%
UKIP1,8853.8%
LIB1,2382.5%
Green6901.4%
CON Majority2,6695.3%

See overview of other seats in East Midlands.

Northampton North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Northampton North constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position6° Right3° Right
National Position12° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %61%59%52%
British Identity24%27%29%
Good Health43%45%48%
UK Born94%91%88%
Good Education32%36%39%
Good Job45%48%51%
High SEC48%47%51%
Average Age52.449.148.5
ABC1 Class48%50%53%

Northampton North ranks #122 for "Leave", #192 for "Right" and #90 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Northampton North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Northampton North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Northampton North

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Northampton North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Northampton North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Northampton NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
NorthamptonAbington5,919Northampton North1,7252,0789592010004,108
NorthamptonBoothville2,715Northampton North1,199605512450001,884
NorthamptonBrookside3,701Northampton North9411,46620131120002,570
NorthamptonEastfield3,431Northampton North1,0341,17512124340002,379
NorthamptonHeadlands3,399Northampton North1,0341,243443350002,359
NorthamptonKingsley3,668Northampton North1,1561,1908390260002,545
NorthamptonKingsthorpe3,024Northampton North1,18569210984280002,098
NorthamptonObelisk2,583Northampton North89673140100260001,793
NorthamptonParklands3,026Northampton North1,357605508440002,100
NorthamptonPhippsville2,968Northampton North1,0298087943990002,058
NorthamptonRectory Farm494Northampton North1661573161000343
NorthamptonSemilong709Northampton South17828113165000493
NorthamptonSpring Park3,031Northampton North1,1207777497340002,102
NorthamptonSt David's3,401Northampton North9191,2831613580002,361
NorthamptonSunnyside2,929Northampton North1,0928125464110002,033
NorthamptonTalavera7,511Northampton North2,1112,663164261140005,213
NorthamptonTrinity2,983Northampton North7991,03375451180002,070
NorthamptonWestone2,692Northampton North1,124657344850001,868
 Total58,184 19,06518,2561,0161,40463600040,377

The full details of these calculations are given on the Northampton North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Northampton South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Northampton South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Northampton SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
NorthamptonAbington668Northampton North18521621125000448
NorthamptonBilling5,514Northampton North2,0321,40359203120003,709
NorthamptonCastle9,094Northampton South1,9213,573159324330006,118
NorthamptonDelapre and Briar Hill9,463Northampton South2,9162,852278271500006,367
NorthamptonKings Heath3,199Northampton South7421,1778414370002,153
NorthamptonNew Duston6,310Northampton South2,5641,246164204670004,245
NorthamptonOld Duston4,967Northampton South1,9281,09414316890003,342
NorthamptonPark2,841Northampton North1,303506464970001,911
NorthamptonRectory Farm2,906Northampton North9388525110760001,954
NorthamptonRiverside2,870Northampton North1,0237304512680001,932
NorthamptonRushmills2,628Northampton South1,0875725144140001,768
NorthamptonSemilong3,011Northampton South7101,10311076260002,025
NorthamptonSpencer3,681Northampton South9041,3767111960002,476
NorthamptonSt James3,550Northampton South9031,27711074240002,388
NorthamptonTalavera291Northampton North779413111000196
 Total60,993 19,23318,0711,4051,62869500041,032

The full details of these calculations are given on the Northampton South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Northampton North

The new seat of Northampton North is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Northampton North
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
NorthamptonAbington5,280Northampton North1,7162,06110492030004,093
NorthamptonAbington596Northampton South19423312123000463
NorthamptonBilling6,024Northampton South2,0321,40359203120003,709
NorthamptonBoothville3,262Northampton North1,199605512450001,884
NorthamptonBrookside3,167Northampton North9411,46620131120002,570
NorthamptonEastfield3,037Northampton North1,0341,17512124340002,379
NorthamptonHeadlands3,267Northampton North1,0341,243443350002,359
NorthamptonKingsley3,453Northampton North1,1561,1908390260002,545
NorthamptonKingsthorpe3,546Northampton North1,18569210984280002,098
NorthamptonObelisk2,065Northampton North89673140100260001,793
NorthamptonPark3,553Northampton South1,303506464970001,911
NorthamptonParklands3,501Northampton North1,357605508440002,100
NorthamptonPhippsville2,828Northampton North1,0298087943990002,058
NorthamptonRectory Farm478Northampton North1601478181000334
NorthamptonRectory Farm2,813Northampton South9448624610560001,963
NorthamptonRiverside3,069Northampton South1,0237304512680001,932
NorthamptonSpring Park3,605Northampton North1,1207777497340002,102
NorthamptonSt David's2,877Northampton North9191,2831613580002,361
NorthamptonSunnyside2,900Northampton North1,0928125464110002,033
NorthamptonTalavera6,296Northampton North2,1062,654170262140005,206
NorthamptonTalavera244Northampton South821037101000203
NorthamptonTrinity2,484Northampton North7991,03375451180002,070
NorthamptonWestone3,371Northampton North1,124657344850001,868
 Total71,716 24,44521,7761,2381,88569000050,034

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Northampton North.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)