Northamptonshire South: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Northamptonshire South: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Andrea Leadsom  (CON)
County/Area: Northamptonshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 71,822
Turnout: 74.0%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON34,25064.5%
LAB12,72123.9%
LIB3,4726.5%
Green1,2882.4%
UKIP1,1672.2%
OTH2330.4%
CON Majority21,52940.5%

See overview of other seats in East Midlands.

Northamptonshire South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Northamptonshire South constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position14° Right3° Right
National Position11° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %56%59%52%
British Identity23%27%29%
Good Health40%45%48%
UK Born92%91%88%
Good Education30%36%39%
Good Job41%48%51%
High SEC43%47%51%
Average Age52.549.148.5
ABC1 Class42%50%53%

Northamptonshire South ranks #241 for "Leave", #51 for "Right" and #98 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Northamptonshire South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Northamptonshire South been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Northamptonshire South

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Daventry

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Daventry, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: DaventryTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DaventryAbbey North5,557Daventry and Lutterworth2,2181,391240224330004,106
DaventryAbbey South5,051Daventry and Lutterworth2,1151,20122418380003,731
DaventryBarby and Kilsby4,405Daventry and Lutterworth2,00561456656150003,256
DaventryBraunston and Welton1,902Daventry and Lutterworth7135974332210001,406
DaventryBrixworth5,464Daventry and Lutterworth2,791880205181430004,037
DaventryDrayton4,881Daventry and Lutterworth1,7651,342307178150003,607
DaventryHill4,622Daventry and Lutterworth1,9131,134209144150003,415
DaventryLong Buckby5,335Daventry and Lutterworth2,5181,018252106480003,942
DaventryMoulton3,360Daventry and Lutterworth1,668521110611230002,483
DaventryRavensthorpe1,865Daventry and Lutterworth96722011754210001,379
DaventrySpratton3,378Daventry and Lutterworth1,8094721327760002,496
DaventryWalgrave1,642Daventry and Lutterworth842264693350001,213
DaventryWeedon4,987Northamptonshire South2,510676347119340003,686
DaventryWelford3,278Daventry and Lutterworth1,76443516942130002,423
DaventryWoodford5,239Northamptonshire South2,560894232231620003,871
DaventryYelvertoft1,507Daventry and Lutterworth8361716729100001,113
South NorthamptonshireHarpole and Grange3,679Northampton South2,048311165281650002,717
South NorthamptonshireHeyfords and Bugbrooke3,468Northamptonshire South1,74040933540370002,561
WellingboroughEarls Barton4,322Daventry and Lutterworth1,9061,00616469490003,194
WellingboroughHarrowden and Sywell1,392Daventry and Lutterworth775175631150001,029
 Total75,334 35,46313,7314,0161,49795800055,665

The full details of these calculations are given on the Daventry seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Northamptonshire South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Northamptonshire South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Northamptonshire SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
NorthamptonEast Hunsbury8,179Northampton South3,7971,8733387410100166,199
NorthamptonNene Valley8,750Northampton South3,6512,32032021410000286,633
NorthamptonRushmills504Northampton South19914519127001383
NorthamptonUpton4,482Northampton South2,0291,148143224400113,397
NorthamptonWest Hunsbury3,610Northampton South1,65282318351230042,736
South NorthamptonshireAstwell1,605Northamptonshire South856306337120021,216
South NorthamptonshireBlakesley and Cote2,721Northamptonshire South1,486437948350022,062
South NorthamptonshireBlisworth and Roade3,319Northamptonshire South1,411768901596500222,515
South NorthamptonshireBrackley East3,310Northamptonshire South1,43568510915610300202,508
South NorthamptonshireBrackley South3,357Northamptonshire South1,0481,04817312411200392,544
South NorthamptonshireBrackley West3,618Northamptonshire South1,6207875814410100322,742
South NorthamptonshireBrafield and Yardley3,230Northamptonshire South1,37987255129100402,449
South NorthamptonshireCosgrove and Grafton1,584Northamptonshire South766364385270011,201
South NorthamptonshireDanvers and Wardoun2,856Northamptonshire South1,736371213310032,165
South NorthamptonshireDeanshanger3,255Northamptonshire South1,5337855458330042,467
South NorthamptonshireGrange Park3,480Northampton South1,833710632250032,636
South NorthamptonshireHackleton1,754Northamptonshire South1,051234261130041,329
South NorthamptonshireKings Sutton1,680Northamptonshire South684478701370031,273
South NorthamptonshireKingthorn1,326Northamptonshire South789178141210021,005
South NorthamptonshireLittle Brook1,765Northamptonshire South1,063205353310011,338
South NorthamptonshireMiddleton Cheney3,021Northamptonshire South1,485577124196100242,290
South NorthamptonshireOld Stratford1,577Northamptonshire South9501692929150051,197
South NorthamptonshireSalcey1,797Northamptonshire South1,0102663317330031,362
South NorthamptonshireSilverstone1,716Northamptonshire South9442545016330041,301
South NorthamptonshireSteane1,569Northamptonshire South9451534023240031,188
South NorthamptonshireTove1,439Northamptonshire South7542163663200031,092
South NorthamptonshireTowcester Brook4,464Northamptonshire South1,597799791105820083,382
South NorthamptonshireTowcester Mill2,838Northamptonshire South1,16138554022390042,151
South NorthamptonshireWashington1,356Northamptonshire South833150190240021,028
South NorthamptonshireWhittlewood1,593Northamptonshire South904255269120021,208
 Total85,755 40,60117,7613,6241,3601,3550029664,997

The full details of these calculations are given on the Northamptonshire South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Northamptonshire South

The new seat of Northamptonshire South is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Northamptonshire South
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DaventryWeedon4,947Daventry2,510676347119340003,686
DaventryWoodford5,201Daventry2,560894232231620003,871
South NorthamptonshireAstwell1,598Northamptonshire South856306337120021,216
South NorthamptonshireBlakesley and Cote2,895Northamptonshire South1,486437948350022,062
South NorthamptonshireBlisworth and Roade3,534Northamptonshire South1,411768901596500222,515
South NorthamptonshireBrackley East3,439Northamptonshire South1,43568510915610300202,508
South NorthamptonshireBrackley South3,259Northamptonshire South1,0481,04817312411200392,544
South NorthamptonshireBrackley West3,373Northamptonshire South1,6207875814410100322,742
South NorthamptonshireBrafield and Yardley3,389Northamptonshire South1,37987255129100402,449
South NorthamptonshireCosgrove and Grafton1,607Northamptonshire South766364385270011,201
South NorthamptonshireDanvers and Wardoun2,942Northamptonshire South1,736371213310032,165
South NorthamptonshireDeanshanger3,206Northamptonshire South1,5337855458330042,467
South NorthamptonshireHackleton1,851Northamptonshire South1,051234261130041,329
South NorthamptonshireHeyfords and Bugbrooke3,649Daventry1,74040933540370002,561
South NorthamptonshireKings Sutton1,731Northamptonshire South684478701370031,273
South NorthamptonshireKingthorn1,493Northamptonshire South789178141210021,005
South NorthamptonshireLittle Brook1,667Northamptonshire South1,063205353310011,338
South NorthamptonshireMiddleton Cheney3,238Northamptonshire South1,485577124196100242,290
South NorthamptonshireOld Stratford1,557Northamptonshire South9501692929150051,197
South NorthamptonshireSalcey1,855Northamptonshire South1,0102663317330031,362
South NorthamptonshireSilverstone1,816Northamptonshire South9442545016330041,301
South NorthamptonshireSteane1,591Northamptonshire South9451534023240031,188
South NorthamptonshireTove1,534Northamptonshire South7542163663200031,092
South NorthamptonshireTowcester Brook4,388Northamptonshire South1,597799791105820083,382
South NorthamptonshireTowcester Mill2,817Northamptonshire South1,16138554022390042,151
South NorthamptonshireWashington1,485Northamptonshire South833150190240021,028
South NorthamptonshireWhittlewood1,760Northamptonshire South904255269120021,208
 Total71,822 34,25012,7213,4721,1671,2880023353,131

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Northamptonshire South.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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