Norwich North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Norwich North: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (changed seat)  (LAB)
County/Area: Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 71,192
Turnout: 73.1%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB25,56149.1%
CON23,58245.3%
LIB1,6633.2%
Green9271.8%
OTH3410.7%
LAB Majority1,9793.8%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Norwich North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Norwich North constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerLABCONCON
Economic Position1° Right8° Right
National Position5° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %54%57%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born95%89%88%
Good Education38%37%39%
Good Job52%53%51%
High SEC54%53%51%
Average Age52.749.448.5
ABC1 Class55%55%53%

Norwich North ranks #289 for "Leave", #298 for "Right" and #240 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Norwich North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Norwich North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Norwich North

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Norwich North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Norwich North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Norwich NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BroadlandHellesdon North West4,472Norwich North1,8101,0691610500223,067
BroadlandHellesdon South East3,909Norwich North1,5151,0051390400172,680
BroadlandOld Catton and Sprowston West6,463Norwich North2,5531,64319501600264,433
BroadlandSprowston Central4,197Norwich North1,4791,2539902500212,877
BroadlandSprowston East5,250Norwich North2,0931,3701150600163,600
BroadlandThorpe St Andrew North West5,600Norwich North2,1241,51416701500213,841
BroadlandThorpe St Andrew South East5,562Norwich North2,3011,3391520600163,814
NorwichCatton Grove8,048Norwich North2,3232,94888012100415,521
NorwichCrome7,616Norwich North2,0552,9329907800595,223
NorwichMile Cross8,175Norwich North1,8673,39688020800465,605
NorwichSewell7,633Norwich North1,7792,926176029900565,236
 Total66,925 21,89921,3951,47907830034145,897

The full details of these calculations are given on the Norwich North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Norwich South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Norwich South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Norwich SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
NorwichBowthorpe8,966Norwich South1,9184,0221970700006,207
NorwichEaton6,739Norwich South1,8702,1705740520004,666
NorwichLakenham7,191Norwich South1,4703,2382140570004,979
NorwichMancroft7,392Norwich South1,4003,35916401950005,118
NorwichNelson7,186Norwich South1,1443,04139004010004,976
NorwichThorpe Hamlet8,016Norwich South2,0573,05826201720005,549
NorwichTown Close7,968Norwich South1,7293,25431202210005,516
NorwichUniversity7,791Norwich South1,3143,70419901780005,395
NorwichWensum8,920Norwich North1,6834,16618401440006,177
South NorfolkNew Costessey4,013Norwich South1,1311,299346030002,779
 Total74,182 15,71631,3112,84201,49300051,362

The full details of these calculations are given on the Norwich South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Norwich North

The new seat of Norwich North is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Norwich North
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BroadlandHellesdon North West4,539Norwich North1,8101,0691610500223,067
BroadlandHellesdon South East3,894Norwich North1,5151,0051390400172,680
BroadlandOld Catton and Sprowston West6,338Norwich North2,5531,64319501600264,433
BroadlandSprowston Central4,150Norwich North1,4791,2539902500212,877
BroadlandSprowston East5,617Norwich North2,0931,3701150600163,600
BroadlandThorpe St Andrew North West5,635Norwich North2,1241,51416701500213,841
BroadlandThorpe St Andrew South East5,074Norwich North2,3011,3391520600163,814
NorwichCatton Grove7,267Norwich North2,3232,94888012100415,521
NorwichCrome6,943Norwich North2,0552,9329907800595,223
NorwichMile Cross6,939Norwich North1,8673,39688020800465,605
NorwichSewell7,091Norwich North1,7792,926176029900565,236
NorwichWensum7,705Norwich South1,6834,16618401440006,177
 Total71,192 23,58225,5611,66309270034152,074

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Norwich North.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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