Norwood and Thornton Heath: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Norwood and Thornton Heath: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Steve Reed  (LAB)
County/Area: Croydon (London)
Electorate: 77,544
Turnout: 76.5%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB43,64173.6%
CON12,05320.3%
LIB1,8433.1%
Green1,1271.9%
UKIP5200.9%
OTH1330.2%
LAB Majority31,58853.3%

See overview of other seats in London.

Norwood and Thornton Heath : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Norwood and Thornton Heath constituency, the 'London' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatLondonAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position2° Left11° Right
National Position36° Int29° Int1° Int
EU Leave %36%40%52%
British Identity23%38%29%
Good Health43%50%48%
UK Born96%64%88%
Good Education28%48%39%
Good Job43%61%51%
High SEC42%55%51%
Average Age48.844.148.5
ABC1 Class43%62%53%

Norwood and Thornton Heath ranks #548 for "Leave", #371 for "Right" and #581 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Norwood and Thornton Heath: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Norwood and Thornton Heath been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Norwood and Thornton Heath

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Croydon Central

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Croydon Central, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Croydon CentralTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CroydonAddiscombe11,893Croydon South East3,4384,5053123916500248,483
CroydonAshburton10,295Croydon South East3,2643,7571271334300217,345
CroydonFairfield11,500Croydon South West4,1023,6552863011700118,201
CroydonFieldway8,026Croydon South East1,6573,751131952200875,725
CroydonHeathfield9,198Croydon South East3,6692,5411231385600326,559
CroydonNew Addington7,593Croydon South East1,8183,189273142300445,415
CroydonShirley9,961Croydon South East3,7522,9941261565900197,106
CroydonWoodside11,578Norwood and Thornton Heath2,5225,48169361420098,259
 Total80,044 24,22229,8731,0831,0416270024757,093

The full details of these calculations are given on the Croydon Central seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Croydon North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Croydon North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Croydon NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CroydonBensham Manor10,420Norwood and Thornton Heath1,3315,5706238930087,102
CroydonBroad Green12,004Mitcham and Norbury1,2626,3822691547400418,182
CroydonNorbury10,564Mitcham and Norbury2,1064,7111837012200107,202
CroydonSelhurst11,564Norwood and Thornton Heath1,1976,23718011211700387,881
CroydonSouth Norwood10,652Norwood and Thornton Heath1,5534,96934916220700217,261
CroydonThornton Heath10,589Norwood and Thornton Heath1,2295,6611335210800357,218
CroydonUpper Norwood10,373Norwood and Thornton Heath1,7254,6633581201970087,071
CroydonWest Thornton11,295Mitcham and Norbury1,4446,01712245650077,700
 Total87,461 11,84744,2101,6567539830016859,617

The full details of these calculations are given on the Croydon North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Dulwich and West Norwood

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Dulwich and West Norwood, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Dulwich and West NorwoodTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
LambethColdharbour11,600Brixton and Vauxhall7496,9902930200001238,355
LambethGipsy Hill9,745Norwood and Thornton Heath1,1995,39228901320077,019
LambethHerne Hill10,681Streatham and Brixton South1,0785,658581031700597,693
LambethKnight's Hill10,422Norwood and Thornton Heath1,2975,66840301310077,506
LambethThurlow Park9,607Streatham and Brixton South1,6554,59346302050036,919
SouthwarkCollege8,355Dulwich and Sydenham1,6833,84840207100146,018
SouthwarkEast Dulwich8,681Dulwich and Sydenham9413,7921,25802520096,252
SouthwarkVillage8,856Dulwich and Sydenham2,3363,1567880980016,379
 Total77,947 10,93839,0974,47701,4060022356,141

The full details of these calculations are given on the Dulwich and West Norwood seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Norwood and Thornton Heath

The new seat of Norwood and Thornton Heath is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Norwood and Thornton Heath
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CroydonBensham Manor9,553Croydon North1,3315,5706238930087,102
CroydonSelhurst10,293Croydon North1,1976,23718011211700387,881
CroydonSouth Norwood10,268Croydon North1,5534,96934916220700217,261
CroydonThornton Heath9,557Croydon North1,2295,6611335210800357,218
CroydonUpper Norwood10,068Croydon North1,7254,6633581201970087,071
CroydonWoodside10,112Croydon Central2,5225,48169361420098,259
LambethGipsy Hill9,064Dulwich and West Norwood1,1995,39228901320077,019
LambethKnight's Hill8,629Dulwich and West Norwood1,2975,66840301310077,506
 Total77,544 12,05343,6411,8435201,1270013359,317

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Norwood and Thornton Heath.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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