Nottingham South and Beeston: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Nottingham South and Beeston: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Lilian Greenwood  (LAB)
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 77,405
Turnout: 77.0%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB35,83060.1%
CON19,09732.1%
LIB2,6304.4%
Green1,0161.7%
UKIP1,0081.7%
LAB Majority16,73328.1%

See overview of other seats in East Midlands.

Nottingham South and Beeston : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Nottingham South and Beeston constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerLABCONCON
Economic Position5° Left3° Right
National Position3° Int9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %45%59%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health50%45%48%
UK Born94%91%88%
Good Education43%36%39%
Good Job58%48%51%
High SEC61%47%51%
Average Age50.649.148.5
ABC1 Class63%50%53%

Nottingham South and Beeston ranks #461 for "Leave", #420 for "Right" and #426 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Nottingham South and Beeston: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Nottingham South and Beeston been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Nottingham South and Beeston

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Broxtowe

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Broxtowe, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: BroxtoweTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BroxtoweAttenborough and Chilwell East5,548Nottingham South and Beeston2,0301,76122370760004,160
BroxtoweAwsworth, Cossall and Trowell4,061Broxtowe and Hucknall1,4011,216226186170003,046
BroxtoweBeeston Central4,369Nottingham South and Beeston1,0192,0009377880003,277
BroxtoweBeeston North4,428Nottingham South and Beeston1,0631,81130171740003,320
BroxtoweBeeston Rylands3,703Nottingham South and Beeston1,0181,5711518300002,778
BroxtoweBeeston West4,350Nottingham South and Beeston1,0371,724326351410003,263
BroxtoweBramcote5,670Broxtowe and Hucknall2,2811,5473724380004,251
BroxtoweChilwell West6,004Broxtowe and Hucknall2,2131,957111175480004,504
BroxtoweGreasley4,964Broxtowe and Hucknall2,0411,3875623630003,723
BroxtoweKimberley5,072Broxtowe and Hucknall1,7021,861251061110003,805
BroxtoweNuthall East and Strelley4,104Broxtowe and Hucknall1,7791,10844123220003,076
BroxtoweStapleford North3,747Broxtowe and Hucknall1,2041,500267540002,809
BroxtoweStapleford South East3,903Broxtowe and Hucknall1,4101,2891655680002,928
BroxtoweStapleford South West4,163Broxtowe and Hucknall1,2611,7423373130003,122
BroxtoweToton and Chilwell Meadows6,401Broxtowe and Hucknall2,9161,6728297340004,801
BroxtoweWatnall and Nuthall West3,529Broxtowe and Hucknall1,609974144550002,647
 Total74,016 25,98425,1202,2481,47668200055,510

The full details of these calculations are given on the Broxtowe seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Nottingham North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Nottingham North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Nottingham NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
NottinghamAspley12,139Nottingham North1,7294,688142319750006,953
NottinghamBasford11,133Nottingham North2,1433,671812831990006,377
NottinghamBestwood11,579Nottingham North2,0803,979653951140006,633
NottinghamBilborough11,557Nottingham South and Beeston1,8874,144156399330006,619
NottinghamBulwell11,113Nottingham North2,0853,72492417480006,366
NottinghamBulwell Forest9,373Nottingham North1,9812,861138320700005,370
 Total66,894 11,90523,0676742,13353900038,318

The full details of these calculations are given on the Nottingham North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Nottingham South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Nottingham South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Nottingham SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
NottinghamBridge9,670Nottingham South and Beeston1,3334,80321895890006,538
NottinghamClifton North8,495Rushcliffe North2,0463,2999929910005,744
NottinghamClifton South9,200Rushcliffe North1,7623,89485456230006,220
NottinghamDunkirk and Lenton6,869Nottingham South and Beeston1,3113,06495371380004,645
NottinghamLeen Valley7,073Nottingham South and Beeston1,3673,09021796140004,784
NottinghamRadford and Park13,689Nottingham South and Beeston2,7765,922285562170009,256
NottinghamWollaton East and Lenton Abbey6,563Nottingham South and Beeston1,2692,84719629950004,436
NottinghamWollaton West9,619Nottingham South and Beeston2,9873,09336935210006,505
 Total71,178 14,85130,0121,5641,10359800048,128

The full details of these calculations are given on the Nottingham South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Nottingham South and Beeston

The new seat of Nottingham South and Beeston is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Nottingham South and Beeston
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BroxtoweAttenborough and Chilwell East5,538Broxtowe2,0301,76122370760004,160
BroxtoweBeeston Central3,431Broxtowe1,0192,0009377880003,277
BroxtoweBeeston North3,790Broxtowe1,0631,81130171740003,320
BroxtoweBeeston Rylands3,432Broxtowe1,0181,5711518300002,778
BroxtoweBeeston West3,773Broxtowe1,0371,724326351410003,263
NottinghamBilborough11,620Nottingham North1,8874,144156399330006,619
NottinghamBridge8,188Nottingham South1,3334,80321895890006,538
NottinghamDunkirk and Lenton5,005Nottingham South1,3113,06495371380004,645
NottinghamLeen Valley7,038Nottingham South1,3673,09021796140004,784
NottinghamRadford and Park10,339Nottingham South2,7765,922285562170009,256
NottinghamWollaton East and Lenton Abbey4,488Nottingham South1,2692,84719629950004,436
NottinghamWollaton West10,763Nottingham South2,9873,09336935210006,505
 Total77,405 19,09735,8302,6301,0081,01600059,581

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Nottingham South and Beeston.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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