Paisley: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Paisley: Overview

Projection: SNP seat

Implied MP at 2017:Mhairi Black  (SNP)
County/Area:Glasgow area (Scotland)
Electorate:76,158
Turnout:68.5%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
SNP20,95240.2%
LAB17,70033.9%
CON10,98621.1%
LIB1,8663.6%
OTH6581.3%
SNP Majority3,2526.2%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Paisley been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Paisley: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Paisley

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Paisley and Renfrewshire North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Paisley and Renfrewshire North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
RenfrewshireBishopton, Bridge of Weir and Langbank9,321Clyde Coast;
Renfrewshire West and Garnock Valley
2,4981,151205002,145005,999
RenfrewshireErskine and Inchinnan12,676Renfrewshire West and Garnock Valley2,6072,744276003,553009,180
RenfrewshireHouston, Crosslee and Linwood11,234Renfrewshire West and Garnock Valley2,3343,006182002,857008,379
RenfrewshirePaisley East and Ralston5,954Paisley9931,256256001,529004,034
RenfrewshirePaisley North West5,501Paisley9811,737162001,635004,515
RenfrewshireRenfrew North9,532Paisley1,6172,172206002,756006,751
RenfrewshireRenfrew South and Gallowhill10,033Paisley1,8122,777189002,979007,757
 Total64,251 12,84214,8431,4760017,4540046,615

The full details of these calculations are given on the Paisley and Renfrewshire North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Paisley and Renfrewshire South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Paisley and Renfrewshire South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
RenfrewshireBishopton, Bridge of Weir and Langbank6Renfrewshire West and Garnock Valley210002005
RenfrewshireHouston, Crosslee and Linwood51Renfrewshire West and Garnock Valley912000140035
RenfrewshireJohnstone North, Kilbarchan and Lochwinnoch9,551Renfrewshire West and Garnock Valley1,3392,283149002,68501186,574
RenfrewshireJohnstone South, Elderslie and Howwood12,206Paisley;
Renfrewshire West and Garnock Valley
1,6853,356174003,12801408,483
RenfrewshirePaisley East and Ralston6,402Paisley9691,307227002,0080904,601
RenfrewshirePaisley North West6,561Paisley8631,850148002,19501415,197
RenfrewshirePaisley South12,933Paisley1,7433,068251003,67202558,989
RenfrewshirePaisley South West11,100Paisley1,5132,548376003,26001317,828
 Total58,810 8,12314,4251,3250016,964087541,712

The full details of these calculations are given on the Paisley and Renfrewshire South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Paisley

The new seat of Paisley is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Paisley
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
RenfrewshireJohnstone South, Elderslie and Howwood3,662Paisley and Renfrewshire South49598551009180412,490
RenfrewshirePaisley East and Ralston5,835Paisley and Renfrewshire North9931,256256001,529004,034
RenfrewshirePaisley East and Ralston6,767Paisley and Renfrewshire South9691,307227002,0080904,601
RenfrewshirePaisley North West6,531Paisley and Renfrewshire North9811,737162001,635004,515
RenfrewshirePaisley North West7,642Paisley and Renfrewshire South8631,850148002,19501415,197
RenfrewshirePaisley South13,221Paisley and Renfrewshire South1,7433,068251003,67202558,989
RenfrewshirePaisley South West11,513Paisley and Renfrewshire South1,5132,548376003,26001317,828
RenfrewshireRenfrew North9,766Paisley and Renfrewshire North1,6172,172206002,756006,751
RenfrewshireRenfrew South and Gallowhill11,221Paisley and Renfrewshire North1,8122,777189002,979007,757
 Total76,158 10,98617,7001,8660020,952065852,162

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Paisley. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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