Pendle and Ribble Valley: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Pendle and Ribble Valley: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Andrew Stephenson  (CON)
County/Area: Lancashire (North West)
Electorate: 73,788
Turnout: 69.3%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON30,27259.2%
LAB16,58732.4%
LIB2,8865.6%
Green1,1872.3%
MIN2370.5%
CON Majority13,68526.7%

See overview of other seats in North West.

Pendle and Ribble Valley : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Pendle and Ribble Valley constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position10° Right6° Left
National Position10° Nat2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %58%54%52%
British Identity26%28%29%
Good Health54%46%48%
UK Born96%92%88%
Good Education35%37%39%
Good Job40%49%51%
High SEC55%48%51%
Average Age50.448.648.5
ABC1 Class42%50%53%

Pendle and Ribble Valley ranks #184 for "Leave", #89 for "Right" and #113 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Pendle and Ribble Valley: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Pendle and Ribble Valley been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Pendle and Ribble Valley

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Pendle

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Pendle, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: PendleTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PendleBarrowford3,692Pendle and Ribble Valley1,5978933201701002,549
PendleBlacko and Higherford1,282Pendle and Ribble Valley666209700030885
PendleBoulsworth3,799Pendle and Ribble Valley1,771753690220902,624
PendleBradley4,731Burnley9062,246540905203,267
PendleBrierfield3,444Burnley9221,40770603702,379
PendleClover Hill3,991Burnley1,0521,6202602703102,756
PendleCoates3,988Pendle and Ribble Valley1,528980136010001002,754
PendleCraven4,006Pendle and Ribble Valley1,5869981190590502,767
PendleEarby4,508Pendle and Ribble Valley1,8681,17257070803,112
PendleFoulridge1,245Pendle and Ribble Valley670185003020860
PendleHigham and Pendleside1,195Pendle and Ribble Valley633184103050826
PendleHorsfield3,707Pendle and Ribble Valley1,3581,025840830902,559
PendleMarsden2,577Burnley7907573907018701,780
PendleOld Laund Booth1,043Pendle and Ribble Valley4991912702020721
PendleReedley3,883Burnley1,2331,368110906002,681
PendleSouthfield4,370Burnley1,2261,718290603803,017
PendleVivary Bridge4,186Pendle and Ribble Valley1,5241,1276909707502,892
PendleWalverden2,789Burnley5931,235640403001,926
PendleWaterside3,749Pendle and Ribble Valley1,1421,2297604209902,588
PendleWhitefield2,778Burnley4231,413360004601,918
 Total64,963 21,98720,71094305030718044,861

The full details of these calculations are given on the Pendle seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ribble Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ribble Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ribble ValleyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Ribble ValleyAighton, Bailey and Chaigley1,424Lancashire North661241570500001,009
Ribble ValleyAlston and Hothersall2,115Lancashire North1,024378710240001,497
Ribble ValleyBillington and Old Langho2,536Pendle and Ribble Valley1,229452910240001,796
Ribble ValleyBowland, Newton and Slaidburn1,115Lancashire North6501198013000790
Ribble ValleyChatburn1,053Lancashire North48321925019000746
Ribble ValleyChipping1,068Lancashire North56916011016000756
Ribble ValleyClayton-le-Dale with Ramsgreave2,167Pendle and Ribble Valley1,129341360280001,534
Ribble ValleyDerby and Thornley2,405Lancashire North9186031360470001,704
Ribble ValleyDilworth2,090Lancashire North914463800230001,480
Ribble ValleyEdisford and Low Moor2,220Pendle and Ribble Valley6146542630410001,572
Ribble ValleyGisburn, Rimington1,137Lancashire North55820729010000804
Ribble ValleyLangho1,781Pendle and Ribble Valley832370450140001,261
Ribble ValleyLittlemoor2,414Pendle and Ribble Valley6146354010590001,709
Ribble ValleyMellor2,228Pendle and Ribble Valley1,162346390300001,577
Ribble ValleyPrimrose2,457Pendle and Ribble Valley4996495390520001,739
Ribble ValleyRead and Simonstone2,069Pendle and Ribble Valley1,099324190230001,465
Ribble ValleyRibchester1,267Lancashire North59221761028000898
Ribble ValleySabden1,152Pendle and Ribble Valley46731910020000816
Ribble ValleySalthill2,477Pendle and Ribble Valley8904723320600001,754
Ribble ValleySt Mary's2,305Pendle and Ribble Valley8294902570550001,631
Ribble ValleyWaddington and West Bradford2,333Lancashire North1,408178200470001,653
Ribble ValleyWhalley3,163Pendle and Ribble Valley1,645516310470002,239
Ribble ValleyWilpshire2,074Pendle and Ribble Valley1,080336210300001,467
Ribble ValleyWiswell and Pendleton1,048Pendle and Ribble Valley49620332011000742
South RibbleBamber Bridge East3,732Ribble South1,1571,377660420002,642
South RibbleBamber Bridge West3,500Ribble South1,0471,352480320002,479
South RibbleCoupe Green and Gregson Lane3,498Pendle and Ribble Valley1,5126914802250002,476
South RibbleFarington East2,422Ribble South7688071160240001,715
South RibbleFarington West3,090Ribble South1,2108111370300002,188
South RibbleLostock Hall5,412Ribble South1,8861,805770620003,830
South RibbleNew Longton and Hutton East236Ribble South107431008000168
South RibbleSamlesbury and Walton3,183Pendle and Ribble Valley1,333843450330002,254
South RibbleWalton-le-Dale East3,290Ribble South1,1651,066550430002,329
South RibbleWalton-le-Dale West3,509Ribble South1,3741,033320460002,485
 Total77,970 31,92118,7203,24801,31600055,205

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ribble Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Pendle and Ribble Valley

The new seat of Pendle and Ribble Valley is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Pendle and Ribble Valley
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PendleBarrowford3,823Pendle1,5978933201701002,549
PendleBlacko and Higherford1,424Pendle666209700030885
PendleBoulsworth4,071Pendle1,771753690220902,624
PendleCoates3,984Pendle1,528980136010001002,754
PendleCraven4,073Pendle1,5869981190590502,767
PendleEarby4,605Pendle1,8681,17257070803,112
PendleFoulridge1,299Pendle670185003020860
PendleHigham and Pendleside1,414Pendle633184103050826
PendleHorsfield3,668Pendle1,3581,025840830902,559
PendleOld Laund Booth1,225Pendle4991912702020721
PendleVivary Bridge4,028Pendle1,5241,1276909707502,892
PendleWaterside3,574Pendle1,1421,2297604209902,588
Ribble ValleyBillington and Old Langho2,414Ribble Valley1,229452910240001,796
Ribble ValleyClayton-le-Dale with Ramsgreave2,082Ribble Valley1,129341360280001,534
Ribble ValleyEdisford and Low Moor2,358Ribble Valley6146542630410001,572
Ribble ValleyLangho1,890Ribble Valley832370450140001,261
Ribble ValleyLittlemoor2,371Ribble Valley6146354010590001,709
Ribble ValleyMellor2,228Ribble Valley1,162346390300001,577
Ribble ValleyPrimrose2,501Ribble Valley4996495390520001,739
Ribble ValleyRead and Simonstone2,080Ribble Valley1,099324190230001,465
Ribble ValleySabden1,192Ribble Valley46731910020000816
Ribble ValleySalthill2,308Ribble Valley8904723320600001,754
Ribble ValleySt Mary's2,274Ribble Valley8294902570550001,631
Ribble ValleyWhalley3,078Ribble Valley1,645516310470002,239
Ribble ValleyWilpshire2,077Ribble Valley1,080336210300001,467
Ribble ValleyWiswell and Pendleton1,244Ribble Valley49620332011000742
South RibbleCoupe Green and Gregson Lane3,449Ribble Valley1,5126914802250002,476
South RibbleSamlesbury and Walton3,054Ribble Valley1,333843450330002,254
 Total73,788 30,27216,5872,88601,1870237051,169

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Pendle and Ribble Valley.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)