Penrith and Solway: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Penrith and Solway: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Rory Stewart  (CON)
County/Area: Cumbria (North West)
Electorate: 72,284
Turnout: 71.7%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON31,01459.9%
LAB14,88528.7%
LIB3,8607.5%
UKIP1,1712.3%
Green4900.9%
OTH3810.7%
CON Majority16,12931.1%

See overview of other seats in North West.

Penrith and Solway : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Penrith and Solway constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position8° Right6° Left
National Position7° Nat2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %54%54%52%
British Identity27%28%29%
Good Health49%46%48%
UK Born90%92%88%
Good Education38%37%39%
Good Job61%49%51%
High SEC61%48%51%
Average Age50.848.648.5
ABC1 Class63%50%53%

Penrith and Solway ranks #292 for "Leave", #128 for "Right" and #208 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Penrith and Solway: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Penrith and Solway been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Penrith and Solway

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Copeland

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Copeland, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: CopelandTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AllerdaleCrummock1,181Penrith and Solway6837154130000821
AllerdaleDalton1,420Penrith and Solway641139128790000987
AllerdaleDerwent Valley1,231Penrith and Solway6668491150000856
AllerdaleKeswick3,992Penrith and Solway1,4708124514200002,775
CopelandArlecdon1,178Cumbria West57017932380000819
CopelandBeckermet2,312Cumbria West1,136417233100001,607
CopelandBootle987Cumbria West5501102510000686
CopelandBransty3,871Cumbria West1,6061,041123200002,691
CopelandCleator Moor North3,157Cumbria West5801,408320300002,194
CopelandCleator Moor South2,144Cumbria West3991,04534200001,489
CopelandDistington3,097Cumbria West6051,52191800002,153
CopelandEgremont North3,404Cumbria West1,0201,219497800002,366
CopelandEgremont South2,855Cumbria West8351,048327000001,985
CopelandEnnerdale774Cumbria West3788368100000539
CopelandFrizington1,956Cumbria West44887513600001,360
CopelandGosforth1,074Cumbria West5341783400000746
CopelandHarbour3,096Cumbria West1,0111,003647500002,153
CopelandHaverigg1,414Barrow and Furness50243812320000984
CopelandHensingham3,199Cumbria West6111,560114200002,224
CopelandHillcrest2,017Cumbria West84853316500001,402
CopelandHolborn Hill1,893Barrow and Furness694601101100001,316
CopelandKells1,875Cumbria West513708275600001,304
CopelandMillom Without1,055Barrow and Furness6017940130000733
CopelandMirehouse3,434Cumbria West6101,667317900002,387
CopelandMoresby1,057Cumbria West39332110110000735
CopelandNewtown2,673Barrow and Furness1,102676285200001,858
CopelandSandwith1,878Cumbria West3269686700001,307
CopelandSeascale2,154Cumbria West1,14230251200001,497
CopelandSt Bees1,374Cumbria West5872828610000956
 Total61,752 21,06119,3681,4071,094000042,930

The full details of these calculations are given on the Copeland seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Penrith and The Border

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Penrith and The Border, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Penrith and The BorderTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AllerdaleWarnell1,589Penrith and Solway83712823441000031,135
AllerdaleWigton4,641Penrith and Solway1,2241,654572877400133,309
CarlisleBrampton3,697Carlisle1,50168118714111600122,638
CarlisleGreat Corby and Geltsdale1,668Carlisle744393343120041,190
CarlisleHayton1,692Carlisle64842662271600271,206
CarlisleIrthing1,582Carlisle71525434141040071,128
CarlisleLongtown and Rockcliffe3,226Carlisle1,358671781433800132,301
CarlisleLyne1,533Carlisle82611920161080051,094
CarlisleStanwix Rural3,715Carlisle1,691670881226600132,650
EdenAlston Moor1,655Penrith and Solway62637876383500271,180
EdenAppleby (Appleby)1,025Westmorland and Lonsdale3343083324140018731
EdenAppleby (Bongate)1,395Westmorland and Lonsdale360251352218004996
EdenAskham1,139Penrith and Solway528101158221002812
EdenBrough1,051Westmorland and Lonsdale396280311780019751
EdenCrosby Ravensworth1,114Penrith and Solway6907015116002794
EdenDacre1,132Penrith and Solway3732171839150010807
EdenEamont1,160Penrith and Solway6901141532002826
EdenGreystoke1,117Penrith and Solway6545851622007798
EdenHartside1,013Penrith and Solway483178296160011723
EdenHesket2,470Penrith and Solway1,3572827622900161,762
EdenKirkby Stephen2,052Westmorland and Lonsdale96532497371900231,465
EdenKirkby Thore1,235Penrith and Solway454367241230022882
EdenKirkoswald1,171Penrith and Solway427307571190023834
EdenLangwathby1,243Penrith and Solway549281201080018886
EdenLazonby1,136Penrith and Solway64513317013002810
EdenLong Marton965Penrith and Solway5767716212006689
EdenMorland1,040Penrith and Solway388291212220019743
EdenOrton with Tebay1,075Westmorland and Lonsdale6356843910002767
EdenPenrith Carleton1,223Penrith and Solway59713812364004872
EdenPenrith East2,138Penrith and Solway87430730423110071,526
EdenPenrith North3,338Penrith and Solway1,24763645219200082,382
EdenPenrith Pategill1,078Penrith and Solway215261275141004770
EdenPenrith South2,001Penrith and Solway77145215726400171,427
EdenPenrith West2,579Penrith and Solway75074929722140081,840
EdenRavenstonedale783Westmorland and Lonsdale510191648002559
EdenShap1,108Penrith and Solway597134301311005790
EdenSkelton1,163Penrith and Solway727682319002830
EdenUllswater1,119Penrith and Solway684475219006799
EdenWarcop1,081Westmorland and Lonsdale4332771415140019772
 Total65,142 28,07912,1693,6401,1431,0310041246,474

The full details of these calculations are given on the Penrith and The Border seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Workington

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Workington, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: WorkingtonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AllerdaleAll Saints3,710Penrith and Solway1,1531,2537949000322,566
AllerdaleAspatria2,607Penrith and Solway7828555593000181,803
AllerdaleBoltons1,429Penrith and Solway80910955100014988
AllerdaleBroughton St Bridget's3,220Penrith and Solway1,1199189873000202,228
AllerdaleChristchurch2,561Penrith and Solway951685124900041,773
AllerdaleClifton1,225Cumbria West25155414230004846
AllerdaleEllen2,508Penrith and Solway735868348900091,735
AllerdaleEllenborough2,900Cumbria West5071,3912374000112,006
AllerdaleEwanrigg2,681Cumbria West3811,34813104000101,856
AllerdaleFlimby1,309Cumbria West25957813520003905
AllerdaleHarrington2,438Cumbria West7657448573000201,687
AllerdaleHolme1,306Penrith and Solway70116323140002903
AllerdaleMarsh1,235Penrith and Solway5842402170002854
AllerdaleMoorclose3,860Cumbria West8571,6517254000362,670
AllerdaleMoss Bay3,832Cumbria West3232,2423637000132,651
AllerdaleNetherhall2,369Cumbria West4959672914400041,639
AllerdaleSeaton3,998Cumbria West1,0351,3897226500042,765
AllerdaleSilloth2,528Penrith and Solway1,1844143298000201,748
AllerdaleSolway1,244Penrith and Solway56426518110004862
AllerdaleSt John's4,118Cumbria West9021,72515242000282,849
AllerdaleSt Michael's3,986Cumbria West6001,9443617000082,758
AllerdaleStainburn1,321Cumbria West4284355450002915
AllerdaleWampool1,299Penrith and Solway7211462070004898
AllerdaleWaver1,387Penrith and Solway779158990005960
AllerdaleWharrels1,183Penrith and Solway50927717120003818
 Total60,254 17,39421,3191,1351,55500028041,683

The full details of these calculations are given on the Workington seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Penrith and Solway

The new seat of Penrith and Solway is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Penrith and Solway
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AllerdaleAll Saints3,680Workington1,1531,2537949000322,566
AllerdaleAspatria2,465Workington7828555593000181,803
AllerdaleBoltons1,358Workington80910955100014988
AllerdaleBroughton St Bridget's2,984Workington1,1199189873000202,228
AllerdaleChristchurch3,033Workington951685124900041,773
AllerdaleCrummock1,211Copeland6837154130000821
AllerdaleDalton1,427Copeland641139128790000987
AllerdaleDerwent Valley1,152Copeland6668491150000856
AllerdaleEllen2,558Workington735868348900091,735
AllerdaleHolme1,226Workington70116323140002903
AllerdaleKeswick3,971Copeland1,4708124514200002,775
AllerdaleMarsh1,284Workington5842402170002854
AllerdaleSilloth2,541Workington1,1844143298000201,748
AllerdaleSolway1,270Workington56426518110004862
AllerdaleWampool1,350Workington7211462070004898
AllerdaleWarnell1,568Penrith and The Border83712823441000031,135
AllerdaleWaver1,471Workington779158990005960
AllerdaleWharrels1,228Workington50927717120003818
AllerdaleWigton4,356Penrith and The Border1,2241,654572877400133,309
EdenAlston Moor1,638Penrith and The Border62637876383500271,180
EdenAskham1,049Penrith and The Border528101158221002812
EdenCrosby Ravensworth1,131Penrith and The Border6907015116002794
EdenDacre1,118Penrith and The Border3732171839150010807
EdenEamont1,180Penrith and The Border6901141532002826
EdenGreystoke1,138Penrith and The Border6545851622007798
EdenHartside1,039Penrith and The Border483178296160011723
EdenHesket2,403Penrith and The Border1,3572827622900161,762
EdenKirkby Thore1,173Penrith and The Border454367241230022882
EdenKirkoswald1,132Penrith and The Border427307571190023834
EdenLangwathby1,245Penrith and The Border549281201080018886
EdenLazonby1,107Penrith and The Border64513317013002810
EdenLong Marton952Penrith and The Border5767716212006689
EdenMorland1,004Penrith and The Border388291212220019743
EdenPenrith Carleton1,230Penrith and The Border59713812364004872
EdenPenrith East2,052Penrith and The Border87430730423110071,526
EdenPenrith North3,178Penrith and The Border1,24763645219200082,382
EdenPenrith Pategill1,025Penrith and The Border215261275141004770
EdenPenrith South1,905Penrith and The Border77145215726400171,427
EdenPenrith West2,163Penrith and The Border75074929722140081,840
EdenShap1,077Penrith and The Border597134301311005790
EdenSkelton1,203Penrith and The Border727682319002830
EdenUllswater1,009Penrith and The Border684475219006799
 Total72,284 31,01414,8853,8601,1714900038151,801

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Penrith and Solway.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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