Poplar and Canning Town: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Poplar and Canning Town: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Lyn Brown  (LAB)
County/Area: Newham (London)
Electorate: 78,073
Turnout: 77.4%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB42,09369.7%
CON12,58320.8%
LIB2,8064.6%
UKIP1,5332.5%
MIN7181.2%
Green4490.7%
OTH2390.4%
LAB Majority29,51048.8%

See overview of other seats in London.

Poplar and Canning Town : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Poplar and Canning Town constituency, the 'London' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatLondonAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position5° Right11° Right
National Position29° Int29° Int1° Int
EU Leave %43%40%52%
British Identity27%38%29%
Good Health54%50%48%
UK Born93%64%88%
Good Education38%48%39%
Good Job47%61%51%
High SEC60%55%51%
Average Age50.844.148.5
ABC1 Class51%62%53%

Poplar and Canning Town ranks #484 for "Leave", #212 for "Right" and #561 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Poplar and Canning Town: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Poplar and Canning Town been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Poplar and Canning Town

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Poplar and Limehouse

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Poplar and Limehouse, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Poplar and LimehouseTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Tower HamletsBlackwall and Cubitt Town9,463Poplar and Canning Town1,8743,773372107108013666,376
Tower HamletsBromley North6,434Stepney and Bow3343,367303131920114134,336
Tower HamletsBromley South5,880Stepney and Bow3113,067270621310108143,963
Tower HamletsCanary Wharf8,686Poplar and Canning Town2,0053,24633812911011865,853
Tower HamletsIsland Gardens9,182Poplar and Canning Town2,1363,22747615070012546,188
Tower HamletsLansbury10,040Poplar and Canning Town5445,445362153510188246,767
Tower HamletsLimehouse4,253Poplar and Canning Town1,0131,54022530505022,865
Tower HamletsMile End10,995Stepney and Bow7385,822434711120206277,410
Tower HamletsPoplar4,752Poplar and Canning Town3412,4412445416010173,204
Tower HamletsShadwell8,448Stepney and Bow5044,48235141340192255,692
Tower HamletsSt Katharine's and Wapping7,232Stepney and Bow1,8662,2294896912209734,875
Tower HamletsWhitechapel1,909Stepney and Bow1819209563704341,286
 Total87,274 11,84739,5593,95984898901,47813558,815

The full details of these calculations are given on the Poplar and Limehouse seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: West Ham

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of West Ham, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: West HamTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
NewhamCanning Town North8,603Poplar and Canning Town7824,4371312244200465,662
NewhamCanning Town South9,292Poplar and Canning Town1,0764,5401472713800446,116
NewhamCustom House7,794Poplar and Canning Town7693,9491172263300365,130
NewhamForest Gate North9,463Leyton and Stratford7104,8301761746200316,226
NewhamForest Gate South10,179Leyton and Stratford1,2944,9192804211400496,698
NewhamGreen Street West8,866East Ham1,1214,53812351800315,836
NewhamPlaistow North9,030Poplar and Canning Town9634,687193303800325,943
NewhamPlaistow South9,597Poplar and Canning Town1,0804,8082011593700326,317
NewhamStratford and New Town10,317Leyton and Stratford1,1525,1762873810600316,790
NewhamWest Ham9,103Leyton and Stratford8904,7081811226900225,992
 Total92,244 9,83746,5921,8361,1349570035460,710

The full details of these calculations are given on the West Ham seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Poplar and Canning Town

The new seat of Poplar and Canning Town is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Poplar and Canning Town
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
NewhamCanning Town North8,333West Ham7824,4371312244200465,662
NewhamCanning Town South8,543West Ham1,0764,5401472713800446,116
NewhamCustom House6,971West Ham7693,9491172263300365,130
NewhamPlaistow North8,215West Ham9634,687193303800325,943
NewhamPlaistow South8,290West Ham1,0804,8082011593700326,317
Tower HamletsBlackwall and Cubitt Town7,284Poplar and Limehouse1,8743,773372107108013666,376
Tower HamletsCanary Wharf6,517Poplar and Limehouse2,0053,24633812911011865,853
Tower HamletsIsland Gardens7,220Poplar and Limehouse2,1363,22747615070012546,188
Tower HamletsLansbury9,623Poplar and Limehouse5445,445362153510188246,767
Tower HamletsLimehouse3,659Poplar and Limehouse1,0131,54022530505022,865
Tower HamletsPoplar3,418Poplar and Limehouse3412,4412445416010173,204
 Total78,073 12,58342,0932,8061,533449071823960,421

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Poplar and Canning Town.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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