Pudsey: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Pudsey: Overview

Projection: LAB seat

Implied MP at 2017:Unknown (changed seat)  (LAB)
County/Area:West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:83,735
Turnout:67.9%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB33,83559.5%
CON18,73333.0%
LIB1,1732.1%
MIN1,1542.0%
UKIP1,0331.8%
Green5290.9%
OTH3740.7%
LAB Majority15,10226.6%

See overview of other seats in Yorks/Humber.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Pudsey been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Pudsey: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Pudsey

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Bradford East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Bradford East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Bradford EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BradfordBolton and Undercliffe10,657Bradford North1,5793,961173269540572676,675
BradfordBowling and Barkerend10,773Bradford South1,7815,529120246500643758,444
BradfordBradford Moor10,889Pudsey1,0336,305110121450649768,339
BradfordEccleshill10,949Bradford North1,7974,094166295540583697,058
BradfordIdle and Thackley11,843Bradford North2,1683,308187269480557666,603
BradfordLittle Horton9,841Bradford South9326,63587173380572678,504
 Total64,952 9,29029,8328431,37328903,57642045,623

The full details of these calculations are given on the Bradford East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Leeds West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Leeds West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Leeds WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
LeedsArmley15,459Pudsey2,8247,6652104992630010511,566
LeedsBramley and Stanningley15,342Pudsey2,8205,99421841322100649,730
LeedsFarnley and Wortley16,850Leeds Central3,1066,830177538271007610,998
LeedsKirkstall13,857Leeds North West2,2996,525301365268001809,938
 Total61,508 11,04927,0149061,8151,0230042542,232

The full details of these calculations are given on the Leeds West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Pudsey

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Pudsey, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: PudseyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
LeedsCalverley and Farsley17,271Pudsey6,5276,5313310002446313,696
LeedsGuiseley and Rawdon17,779Shipley6,8505,7595540003278413,574
LeedsHorsforth16,685Leeds North West6,6455,5895720003067813,190
LeedsPudsey16,889Pudsey5,5297,3403040002616613,500
 Total68,624 25,55125,2191,7610001,13829153,960

The full details of these calculations are given on the Pudsey seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Pudsey

The new seat of Pudsey is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Pudsey
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BradfordBradford Moor12,865Bradford East1,0336,305110121450649768,339
LeedsArmley18,613Leeds West2,8247,6652104992630010511,566
LeedsBramley and Stanningley15,655Leeds West2,8205,99421841322100649,730
LeedsCalverley and Farsley18,432Pudsey6,5276,5313310002446313,696
LeedsPudsey18,170Pudsey5,5297,3403040002616613,500
 Total83,735 18,73333,8351,1731,03352901,15437456,831

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Pudsey. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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