Rayleigh and Wickford: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Rayleigh and Wickford: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Mark Francois  (CON)
County/Area: Essex (Anglia)
Electorate: 72,019
Turnout: 73.3%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON35,08666.5%
LAB12,94824.5%
UKIP2,2264.2%
LIB1,5062.9%
Green1,0251.9%
CON Majority22,13841.9%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Rayleigh and Wickford : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Rayleigh and Wickford constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position14° Right8° Right
National Position20° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %66%57%52%
British Identity46%27%29%
Good Health52%47%48%
UK Born54%89%88%
Good Education54%37%39%
Good Job71%53%51%
High SEC51%53%51%
Average Age37.649.448.5
ABC1 Class68%55%53%

Rayleigh and Wickford ranks #52 for "Leave", #44 for "Right" and #9 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Rayleigh and Wickford: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Rayleigh and Wickford been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Rayleigh and Wickford

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Rayleigh and Wickford

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Rayleigh and Wickford, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Rayleigh and WickfordTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BasildonWickford Castledon6,194Rayleigh and Wickford2,7971,178102255310004,363
BasildonWickford North9,951Rayleigh and Wickford4,5581,89075426590007,008
BasildonWickford Park7,667Rayleigh and Wickford3,6191,41857243620005,399
RochfordAshingdon and Canewdon3,599Rochford and Southend East1,8325195098350002,534
RochfordDownhall and Rawreth3,933Rayleigh and Wickford1,498482668100220002,770
RochfordGrange3,002Rayleigh and Wickford1,5324583069240002,113
RochfordHawkwell North3,656Rayleigh and Wickford1,7726543783280002,574
RochfordHawkwell South3,449Rayleigh and Wickford1,44876654124380002,430
RochfordHawkwell West3,320Rayleigh and Wickford1,6016001089380002,338
RochfordHockley Central5,307Rayleigh and Wickford2,5911,0174447390003,738
RochfordHockley North1,718Rayleigh and Wickford87730712680001,210
RochfordHockley West1,668Rayleigh and Wickford92523018110001,175
RochfordHullbridge5,264Rayleigh and Wickford2,186739932144770003,709
RochfordLodge3,254Rayleigh and Wickford1,7354486524210002,293
RochfordRayleigh Central3,467Rayleigh and Wickford1,543617133100490002,442
RochfordSweyne Park3,578Rayleigh and Wickford1,7606192183370002,520
RochfordTrinity2,858Rayleigh and Wickford1,3864652413080002,013
RochfordWheatley3,404Rayleigh and Wickford1,61361718111370002,396
RochfordWhitehouse3,266Rayleigh and Wickford1,64544362114360002,300
 Total78,555 36,91813,4671,5562,3241,06000055,325

The full details of these calculations are given on the Rayleigh and Wickford seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Rayleigh and Wickford

The new seat of Rayleigh and Wickford is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Rayleigh and Wickford
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BasildonWickford Castledon6,160Rayleigh and Wickford2,7971,178102255310004,363
BasildonWickford North9,487Rayleigh and Wickford4,5581,89075426590007,008
BasildonWickford Park6,778Rayleigh and Wickford3,6191,41857243620005,399
RochfordDownhall and Rawreth3,705Rayleigh and Wickford1,498482668100220002,770
RochfordGrange2,762Rayleigh and Wickford1,5324583069240002,113
RochfordHawkwell North3,440Rayleigh and Wickford1,7726543783280002,574
RochfordHawkwell South3,410Rayleigh and Wickford1,44876654124380002,430
RochfordHawkwell West3,447Rayleigh and Wickford1,6016001089380002,338
RochfordHockley Central5,175Rayleigh and Wickford2,5911,0174447390003,738
RochfordHockley North1,650Rayleigh and Wickford87730712680001,210
RochfordHockley West1,593Rayleigh and Wickford92523018110001,175
RochfordHullbridge5,350Rayleigh and Wickford2,186739932144770003,709
RochfordLodge3,209Rayleigh and Wickford1,7354486524210002,293
RochfordRayleigh Central3,236Rayleigh and Wickford1,543617133100490002,442
RochfordSweyne Park3,361Rayleigh and Wickford1,7606192183370002,520
RochfordTrinity2,872Rayleigh and Wickford1,3864652413080002,013
RochfordWheatley3,151Rayleigh and Wickford1,61361718111370002,396
RochfordWhitehouse3,233Rayleigh and Wickford1,64544362114360002,300
 Total72,019 35,08612,9481,5062,2261,02500052,791

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Rayleigh and Wickford.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)