Reading East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Reading East: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Matt Rodda  (LAB)
County/Area: Berkshire (South East)
Electorate: 73,626
Turnout: 82.5%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB30,39950.0%
CON25,15241.4%
LIB3,5755.9%
Green1,3092.2%
OTH3310.5%
LAB Majority5,2478.6%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Reading East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Reading East constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerLABCONCON
Economic Position1° Left4° Right
National Position9° Int3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %39%52%52%
British Identity26%29%29%
Good Health47%49%48%
UK Born93%88%88%
Good Education35%43%39%
Good Job47%56%51%
High SEC49%57%51%
Average Age48.749.248.5
ABC1 Class50%60%53%

Reading East ranks #525 for "Leave", #368 for "Right" and #466 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Reading East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Reading East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Reading East

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Reading East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Reading East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Reading EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ReadingAbbey8,784Reading East2,3373,699236010600456,423
ReadingCaversham6,662Reading East2,1532,31827809900254,873
ReadingChurch7,337Reading East1,9993,01125407100315,366
ReadingKatesgrove6,894Reading East1,5503,110242011100295,042
ReadingMapledurham1,998Reading East8884221330130051,461
ReadingPark7,718Reading East1,4313,684152034200365,645
ReadingPeppard6,589Reading East2,8251,55937404000214,819
ReadingRedlands6,943Reading East1,4713,120250019300445,078
ReadingThames6,816Reading East2,7281,71248504100194,985
WokinghamBulmershe and Whitegates5,807Reading East2,0041,87831002800284,248
WokinghamLoddon6,208Reading East2,5971,54833802800294,540
WokinghamSouth Lake3,767Reading East1,3611,03232501900192,756
 Total75,523 23,34427,0933,37701,0910033155,236

The full details of these calculations are given on the Reading East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Reading West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Reading West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Reading WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ReadingBattle7,960Reading East1,8083,30619802180005,530
ReadingKentwood7,087Reading West2,5232,0522570900004,922
ReadingMinster7,456Reading West2,1992,55920302200005,181
ReadingNorcot7,259Reading West1,9532,77717101420005,043
ReadingSouthcote6,282Reading West1,9042,1971960670004,364
ReadingTilehurst6,699Reading West2,4921,5845180600004,654
ReadingWhitley8,444Reading West2,2293,4231520630005,867
West BerkshireBirch Copse5,704Reading West2,5711,1432290200003,963
West BerkshireCalcot6,483Reading West2,7161,5092540260004,505
West BerkshirePangbourne2,182Reading West1,0032981840300001,515
West BerkshirePurley on Thames4,790Reading West2,2738032330180003,327
West BerkshireTheale2,085Reading West7213943230100001,448
West BerkshireWestwood2,088Reading West9213881240170001,450
 Total74,519 25,31322,4333,042098100051,769

The full details of these calculations are given on the Reading West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Reading East

The new seat of Reading East is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Reading East
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ReadingAbbey6,707Reading East2,3373,699236010600456,423
ReadingBattle5,780Reading West1,8083,30619802180005,530
ReadingCaversham6,592Reading East2,1532,31827809900254,873
ReadingChurch5,476Reading East1,9993,01125407100315,366
ReadingKatesgrove5,262Reading East1,5503,110242011100295,042
ReadingMapledurham2,392Reading East8884221330130051,461
ReadingPark5,587Reading East1,4313,684152034200365,645
ReadingPeppard7,122Reading East2,8251,55937404000214,819
ReadingRedlands4,492Reading East1,4713,120250019300445,078
ReadingThames6,969Reading East2,7281,71248504100194,985
WokinghamBulmershe and Whitegates6,491Reading East2,0041,87831002800284,248
WokinghamLoddon6,784Reading East2,5971,54833802800294,540
WokinghamSouth Lake3,972Reading East1,3611,03232501900192,756
 Total73,626 25,15230,3993,57501,3090033160,766

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Reading East.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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