Redcar and Cleveland East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Redcar and Cleveland East: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Anna Turley  (LAB)
County/Area: Teesside (North East)
Electorate: 72,951
Turnout: 66.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB22,92447.2%
CON21,66844.6%
LIB2,9486.1%
UKIP1,0342.1%
LAB Majority1,2562.6%

See overview of other seats in North East.

Redcar and Cleveland East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Redcar and Cleveland East constituency, the 'North East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth EastAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position4° Left8° Left
National Position8° Nat4° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %64%58%52%
British Identity32%26%29%
Good Health46%44%48%
UK Born85%95%88%
Good Education38%35%39%
Good Job45%46%51%
High SEC43%44%51%
Average Age44.649.048.5
ABC1 Class48%47%53%

Redcar and Cleveland East ranks #75 for "Leave", #413 for "Right" and #177 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Redcar and Cleveland East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Redcar and Cleveland East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Redcar and Cleveland East

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Middlesbrough South and Cleveland EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MiddlesbroughBerwick Hills and Pallister2,110Middlesbrough and Eston3311,04018000001,389
MiddlesbroughCoulby Newham7,010Middlesbrough South and Thornaby1,8732,527215000004,615
MiddlesbroughHemlington5,278Middlesbrough South and Thornaby1,0922,33647000003,475
MiddlesbroughLadgate4,365Middlesbrough South and Thornaby1,1381,71025000002,873
MiddlesbroughMarton East3,641Middlesbrough South and Thornaby1,49784951000002,397
MiddlesbroughMarton West4,170Middlesbrough South and Thornaby1,76794632000002,745
MiddlesbroughNunthorpe3,874Middlesbrough South and Thornaby1,70974893000002,550
MiddlesbroughPark End and Beckfield2,748Middlesbrough and Eston7191,05931000001,809
MiddlesbroughStainton and Thornton1,604Middlesbrough South and Thornaby6324222000001,056
Redcar and ClevelandBrotton5,474Redcar and Cleveland East1,7011,82973000003,603
Redcar and ClevelandGuisborough5,998Redcar and Cleveland East1,8662,01371000003,950
Redcar and ClevelandHutton5,646Redcar and Cleveland East2,3191,156242000003,717
Redcar and ClevelandLockwood1,584Redcar and Cleveland East59142923000001,043
Redcar and ClevelandLoftus4,778Redcar and Cleveland East1,4621,62359000003,144
Redcar and ClevelandSaltburn4,660Redcar and Cleveland East1,6711,171226000003,068
Redcar and ClevelandSkelton5,827Redcar and Cleveland East1,8571,91861000003,836
Redcar and ClevelandWestworth3,567Redcar and Cleveland East1,41684884000002,348
 Total72,334 23,64122,6241,3530000047,618

The full details of these calculations are given on the Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Redcar

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Redcar, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: RedcarTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Redcar and ClevelandCoatham4,186Redcar and Cleveland East8791,47312618700002,665
Redcar and ClevelandDormanstown5,211Redcar and Cleveland East8931,91434217000003,319
Redcar and ClevelandEston5,405Middlesbrough and Eston1,0402,0619324800003,442
Redcar and ClevelandGrangetown3,930Middlesbrough and Eston2822,065916500002,503
Redcar and ClevelandKirkleatham5,447Redcar and Cleveland East1,1691,94415619900003,468
Redcar and ClevelandLongbeck5,457Redcar and Cleveland East1,6121,49016520700003,474
Redcar and ClevelandNewcomen3,106Redcar and Cleveland East5881,06221511200001,977
Redcar and ClevelandNormanby5,355Middlesbrough and Eston1,0941,96111823700003,410
Redcar and ClevelandOrmesby4,589Middlesbrough and Eston1,1911,29828315200002,924
Redcar and ClevelandSouth Bank5,069Middlesbrough and Eston6092,428949800003,229
Redcar and ClevelandSt Germain's4,718Redcar and Cleveland East1,2401,26039211300003,005
Redcar and ClevelandTeesville5,010Middlesbrough and Eston1,1381,8746211500003,189
Redcar and ClevelandWest Dyke5,808Redcar and Cleveland East1,5131,7154492200003,699
Redcar and ClevelandZetland3,546Redcar and Cleveland East8911,0792642400002,258
 Total66,837 14,13923,6242,8501,949000042,562

The full details of these calculations are given on the Redcar seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Redcar and Cleveland East

The new seat of Redcar and Cleveland East is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Redcar and Cleveland East
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Redcar and ClevelandBrotton5,151Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East1,7011,82973000003,603
Redcar and ClevelandCoatham3,598Redcar8791,47312618700002,665
Redcar and ClevelandDormanstown4,951Redcar8931,91434217000003,319
Redcar and ClevelandGuisborough5,512Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East1,8662,01371000003,950
Redcar and ClevelandHutton5,841Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East2,3191,156242000003,717
Redcar and ClevelandKirkleatham5,397Redcar1,1691,94415619900003,468
Redcar and ClevelandLockwood1,509Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East59142923000001,043
Redcar and ClevelandLoftus4,586Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East1,4621,62359000003,144
Redcar and ClevelandLongbeck5,355Redcar1,6121,49016520700003,474
Redcar and ClevelandNewcomen3,124Redcar5881,06221511200001,977
Redcar and ClevelandSaltburn4,664Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East1,6711,171226000003,068
Redcar and ClevelandSkelton5,641Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East1,8571,91861000003,836
Redcar and ClevelandSt Germain's4,835Redcar1,2401,26039211300003,005
Redcar and ClevelandWest Dyke5,943Redcar1,5131,7154492200003,699
Redcar and ClevelandWestworth3,436Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East1,41684884000002,348
Redcar and ClevelandZetland3,408Redcar8911,0792642400002,258
 Total72,951 21,66822,9242,9481,034000048,574

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Redcar and Cleveland East.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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