Salisbury: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Salisbury: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: John Glen  (CON)
County/Area: Wiltshire (South West)
Electorate: 77,247
Turnout: 78.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON34,85157.4%
LAB14,87924.5%
LIB7,85612.9%
Green1,3432.2%
UKIP1,2942.1%
OTH4690.8%
CON Majority19,97232.9%

See overview of other seats in South West.

Salisbury : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Salisbury constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position5° Right1° Right
National Position1° Nat1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %50%53%52%
British Identity38%27%29%
Good Health50%47%48%
UK Born74%92%88%
Good Education49%40%39%
Good Job67%50%51%
High SEC68%52%51%
Average Age49.750.548.5
ABC1 Class70%54%53%

Salisbury ranks #393 for "Leave", #201 for "Right" and #336 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Salisbury: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Salisbury been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Salisbury

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Devizes

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Devizes, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: DevizesTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WiltshireAldbourne and Ramsbury3,894Devizes1,848568153614000162,731
WiltshireBromham, Rowde and Potterne3,622Devizes1,473357148503550032,539
WiltshireBulford, Allington and Figheldean3,679Salisbury1,4427631314616500302,577
WiltshireBurbage and the Bedwyns3,606Devizes1,896484878500012,526
WiltshireDevizes and Roundway South3,236Devizes1,0337842345914300162,269
WiltshireDevizes East3,038Devizes971834155629600112,129
WiltshireDevizes North3,041Devizes9667851735813300162,131
WiltshireDurrington and Larkhill5,493Salisbury1,6274041,722592000193,851
WiltshireLudgershall and Perham Down4,370Devizes2,5022421461302900153,064
WiltshireMarlborough East3,013Devizes8907243391013300152,111
WiltshireMarlborough West3,229Devizes1,1786841781119200192,262
WiltshirePewsey3,455Devizes1,55963515110650012,421
WiltshirePewsey Vale3,328Devizes1,5793783138540012,333
WiltshireRoundway3,404Devizes1,4176871273411100102,386
WiltshireSummerham and Seend1,111Wiltshire West5231072510320000778
WiltshireThe Collingbournes and Netheravon3,094Devizes1,8492157411190012,169
WiltshireThe Lavingtons and Erlestoke4,354Devizes2,21358815847410043,051
WiltshireTidworth6,831Devizes3,8684212331864200384,788
WiltshireUrchfont and The Cannings3,184Devizes1,237474109350600022,232
WiltshireWest Selkley3,199Devizes1,674473504360042,241
 Total72,181 31,74510,6074,7061,7051,6040022250,589

The full details of these calculations are given on the Devizes seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Salisbury

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Salisbury, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: SalisburyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WiltshireAlderbury and Whiteparish3,382Salisbury1,76643416841500882,475
WiltshireAmesbury East4,828Salisbury2,4396921542111400213,531
WiltshireAmesbury West3,727Salisbury1,753573127194900702,726
WiltshireBourne and Woodford Valley3,410Salisbury1,75057310040250062,494
WiltshireBulford, Allington and Figheldean829Salisbury43897181170034605
WiltshireDownton and Ebble Valley3,922Salisbury2,0964661591231400102,868
WiltshireFovant and Chalke Valley1,963Salisbury1,234154331110021,435
WiltshireLaverstock, Ford and Old Sarum3,268Salisbury1,0441,185108281300122,390
WiltshireNadder and East Knoyle125Warminster and Shaftesbury661742200091
WiltshireRedlynch and Landford3,757Salisbury1,96452513089340062,748
WiltshireSalisbury Bemerton5,059Salisbury1,3301,9502071672700193,700
WiltshireSalisbury Fisherton and Bemerton Village3,564Salisbury1,141937445552000102,608
WiltshireSalisbury Harnham4,029Salisbury1,55353174277360082,947
WiltshireSalisbury St Edmund and Milford4,134Salisbury1,391720699391650093,023
WiltshireSalisbury St Francis and Stratford4,163Salisbury1,71971838082130073,045
WiltshireSalisbury St Mark's and Bishopdown3,712Salisbury1,57877832116140072,714
WiltshireSalisbury St Martin's and Cathedral4,664Salisbury1,6361,2333055417000133,411
WiltshireSalisbury St Paul's3,933Salisbury1,3029522812325400652,877
WiltshireTill and Wylye Valley3,576Salisbury1,561319674123700132,616
WiltshireWilton and Lower Wylye Valley3,834Salisbury1,35351484231570072,804
WiltshireWinterslow3,013Salisbury1,8372518661500102,205
 Total72,892 30,95113,6195,9831,1911,1520041753,313

The full details of these calculations are given on the Salisbury seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Wiltshire South West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wiltshire South West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Wiltshire South WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WiltshireEthandune3,553Warminster and Shaftesbury1,6555172980520082,530
WiltshireFovant and Chalke Valley1,464Salisbury89711024080031,042
WiltshireMere3,376Warminster and Shaftesbury1,42073296010000552,403
WiltshireNadder and East Knoyle3,246Warminster and Shaftesbury1,59852710207300112,311
WiltshireSouthwick3,508Wiltshire West1,52474414105600332,498
WiltshireSummerham and Seend1,440Wiltshire West771194320250041,026
WiltshireTisbury3,441Warminster and Shaftesbury1,714466144011500122,451
WiltshireTrowbridge Adcroft3,564Wiltshire West1,06990948905800122,537
WiltshireTrowbridge Central4,404Wiltshire West1,2231,217560011800173,135
WiltshireTrowbridge Drynham3,199Wiltshire West1,42947332404200102,278
WiltshireTrowbridge Grove3,445Wiltshire West1,191994109010000592,453
WiltshireTrowbridge Lambrok3,838Wiltshire West1,53992514506600582,733
WiltshireTrowbridge Park3,714Wiltshire West1,48880524107000402,644
WiltshireTrowbridge Paxcroft3,304Wiltshire West1,2614995560290072,352
WiltshireWarminster Broadway3,620Warminster and Shaftesbury1,78653018205700232,578
WiltshireWarminster Copheap and Wylye4,040Warminster and Shaftesbury2,32335612404800252,876
WiltshireWarminster East4,198Warminster and Shaftesbury1,81481221509300552,989
WiltshireWarminster West4,113Warminster and Shaftesbury2,33333320103500262,928
WiltshireWarminster Without3,275Warminster and Shaftesbury1,7783959105700112,332
WiltshireWestbury East3,914Warminster and Shaftesbury1,32878154609100402,786
WiltshireWestbury North3,574Warminster and Shaftesbury1,10283352805300282,544
WiltshireWestbury West4,375Warminster and Shaftesbury1,4791,32017009300523,114
WiltshireWinsley and Westwood292Wiltshire West117424205001207
 Total76,897 32,83914,5145,36001,4440059054,747

The full details of these calculations are given on the Wiltshire South West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Salisbury

The new seat of Salisbury is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Salisbury
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WiltshireAlderbury and Whiteparish3,314Salisbury1,76643416841500882,475
WiltshireAmesbury East4,199Salisbury2,4396921542111400213,531
WiltshireAmesbury West3,580Salisbury1,753573127194900702,726
WiltshireBourne and Woodford Valley3,354Salisbury1,75057310040250062,494
WiltshireBulford, Allington and Figheldean3,115Devizes1,5347021224714000522,597
WiltshireBulford, Allington and Figheldean702Salisbury3461582710320012585
WiltshireDownton and Ebble Valley3,679Salisbury2,0964661591231400102,868
WiltshireDurrington and Larkhill4,711Devizes1,6274041,722592000193,851
WiltshireFovant and Chalke Valley1,881Salisbury1,221151331110031,420
WiltshireFovant and Chalke Valley1,402Wiltshire South West91011324080021,057
WiltshireLaverstock, Ford and Old Sarum3,685Salisbury1,0441,185108281300122,390
WiltshireRedlynch and Landford3,707Salisbury1,96452513089340062,748
WiltshireSalisbury Bemerton4,230Salisbury1,3301,9502071672700193,700
WiltshireSalisbury Fisherton and Bemerton Village3,296Salisbury1,141937445552000102,608
WiltshireSalisbury Harnham3,911Salisbury1,55353174277360082,947
WiltshireSalisbury St Edmund and Milford3,425Salisbury1,391720699391650093,023
WiltshireSalisbury St Francis and Stratford3,987Salisbury1,71971838082130073,045
WiltshireSalisbury St Mark's and Bishopdown3,522Salisbury1,57877832116140072,714
WiltshireSalisbury St Martin's and Cathedral3,930Salisbury1,6361,2333055417000133,411
WiltshireSalisbury St Paul's3,464Salisbury1,3029522812325400652,877
WiltshireTill and Wylye Valley3,487Salisbury1,561319674123700132,616
WiltshireWilton and Lower Wylye Valley3,565Salisbury1,35351484231570072,804
WiltshireWinterslow3,101Salisbury1,8372518661500102,205
 Total77,247 34,85114,8797,8561,2941,3430046960,692

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Salisbury.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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