Sherwood: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Sherwood: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Mark Spencer  (CON)
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 78,152
Turnout: 73.9%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON28,40749.2%
LAB26,48045.9%
UKIP1,3742.4%
LIB9401.6%
Green5270.9%
CON Majority1,9273.3%

See overview of other seats in East Midlands.

Sherwood : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Sherwood constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position3° Right
National Position8° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %59%59%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health52%45%48%
UK Born91%91%88%
Good Education44%36%39%
Good Job62%48%51%
High SEC64%47%51%
Average Age51.549.148.5
ABC1 Class65%50%53%

Sherwood ranks #175 for "Leave", #345 for "Right" and #182 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Sherwood: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Sherwood been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Sherwood

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Gedling

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Gedling, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: GedlingTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GedlingBestwood St Albans2,590Sherwood8061,00466030001,879
GedlingCarlton4,201Nottingham East and Carlton1,2481,6971975100003,049
GedlingCarlton Hill6,588Nottingham East and Carlton1,8572,74745120100004,779
GedlingCavendish4,255Nottingham East and Carlton1,2451,6359810720003,087
GedlingColwick2,181Nottingham East and Carlton6987922817470001,582
GedlingCoppice4,598Sherwood1,4861,65931100600003,336
GedlingDaybrook4,508Sherwood1,0522,119863290003,271
GedlingErnehale4,730Sherwood1,4521,7709179400003,432
GedlingGedling4,576Nottingham East and Carlton1,4911,6449352410003,321
GedlingNetherfield4,495Nottingham East and Carlton1,0771,92960114820003,262
GedlingPhoenix4,384Nottingham East and Carlton1,2371,643169117160003,182
GedlingPlains5,250Sherwood2,0681,5954154510003,809
GedlingPorchester6,226Nottingham East and Carlton1,8652,4487945800004,517
GedlingRedhill4,201Sherwood1,3841,543318830003,049
GedlingTrent Valley4,026Sherwood1,6231,1391263310002,922
GedlingWoodthorpe4,411Sherwood1,5481,46712719400003,201
 Total71,220 22,13726,8311,0521,14351500051,678

The full details of these calculations are given on the Gedling seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Newark

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Newark, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: NewarkTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BassetlawEast Markham1,896Newark1,0553128700001,382
BassetlawRampton1,752Newark84539992500001,278
BassetlawTuxford and Trent3,253Newark1,421893144200002,370
Newark and SherwoodBalderton North and Coddington5,097Newark2,3771,1431058900003,714
Newark and SherwoodBalderton South3,778Newark1,782831548600002,753
Newark and SherwoodBeacon6,476Newark2,5471,75415426500004,720
Newark and SherwoodBridge5,073Newark1,3382,0103031900003,697
Newark and SherwoodCastle2,496Newark87269410914300001,818
Newark and SherwoodCollingham4,105Newark2,008724252700002,991
Newark and SherwoodDevon7,225Newark2,6282,4024818800005,266
Newark and SherwoodDover Beck1,846Newark1,21111813300001,345
Newark and SherwoodFarndon and Fernwood4,497Newark2,3826486118600003,277
Newark and SherwoodLowdham2,778Newark1,71824758200002,025
Newark and SherwoodMuskham2,239Newark1,232236160400001,632
Newark and SherwoodRainworth North and Rufford343Sherwood118118860000250
Newark and SherwoodSouthwell5,723Newark2,505853813100004,172
Newark and SherwoodSutton-on-Trent2,336Newark1,1082083691600001,701
Newark and SherwoodTrent2,267Newark1,44414264300001,653
RushcliffeBingham East3,667Newark1,510988165900002,672
RushcliffeBingham West3,306Newark1,396890118600002,410
RushcliffeCranmer2,357Newark1,221404831000001,718
RushcliffeEast Bridgford1,430Newark74123862100001,042
RushcliffeThoroton1,585Newark1,0359228100001,156
 Total75,525 34,49416,3442,7851,419000055,042

The full details of these calculations are given on the Newark seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Sherwood

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Sherwood, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: SherwoodTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AshfieldHucknall Central5,738Broxtowe and Hucknall1,7921,685181294660004,018
AshfieldHucknall North7,189Broxtowe and Hucknall2,5972,012991691570005,034
AshfieldHucknall South5,597Broxtowe and Hucknall1,8351,77078180570003,920
AshfieldHucknall West7,436Broxtowe and Hucknall2,6372,13993283550005,207
GedlingBestwood St Albans1,570Sherwood5204781967170001,101
GedlingCalverton5,877Sherwood2,2581,48586217710004,117
GedlingDumbles2,337Sherwood1,2163481843110001,636
GedlingNewstead Abbey6,356Sherwood3,1261,073112118210004,450
GedlingPlains742Sherwood296167221916000520
GedlingRedhill27Sherwood10801000019
Newark and SherwoodBilsthorpe2,847Sherwood983930862100001,993
Newark and SherwoodBoughton2,536Sherwood855884224110001,776
Newark and SherwoodDover Beck464Newark29230011000324
Newark and SherwoodEdwinstowe and Clipstone8,055Sherwood2,8062,6198181550005,642
Newark and SherwoodFarnsfield2,206Newark1,03944947290001,546
Newark and SherwoodOllerton6,806Sherwood1,8602,74913112320004,766
Newark and SherwoodRainworth North and Rufford4,707Sherwood1,6181,5485861110003,296
Newark and SherwoodRainworth South and Blidworth4,659Sherwood1,3221,7775267450003,263
Newark and SherwoodSouthwell1,047Newark432143142016000733
 Total76,196 27,49422,2941,1111,80166100053,361

The full details of these calculations are given on the Sherwood seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Sherwood

The new seat of Sherwood is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Sherwood
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GedlingBestwood St Albans2,398Gedling8259231679120001,855
GedlingBestwood St Albans1,454Sherwood50155994880001,125
GedlingCalverton5,712Sherwood2,2581,48586217710004,117
GedlingCoppice4,501Gedling1,4861,65931100600003,336
GedlingDaybrook4,173Gedling1,0522,119863290003,271
GedlingDumbles2,294Sherwood1,2163481843110001,636
GedlingErnehale4,526Gedling1,4521,7709179400003,432
GedlingNewstead Abbey6,362Sherwood3,1261,073112118210004,450
GedlingPlains5,655Gedling2,0711,5445564590003,793
GedlingPlains799Sherwood293218898000536
GedlingRedhill4,665Gedling1,3851,541318830003,048
GedlingRedhill30Sherwood91001000020
GedlingTrent Valley4,136Gedling1,6231,1391263310002,922
GedlingWoodthorpe4,379Gedling1,5481,46712719400003,201
Newark and SherwoodBilsthorpe2,322Sherwood983930862100001,993
Newark and SherwoodBoughton2,259Sherwood855884224110001,776
Newark and SherwoodEdwinstowe and Clipstone7,426Sherwood2,8062,6198181550005,642
Newark and SherwoodOllerton6,303Sherwood1,8602,74913112320004,766
Newark and SherwoodRainworth North and Rufford333Newark118113451000241
Newark and SherwoodRainworth North and Rufford4,573Sherwood1,6181,5536262100003,305
Newark and SherwoodRainworth South and Blidworth3,852Sherwood1,3221,7775267450003,263
 Total78,152 28,40726,4809401,37452700057,728

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Sherwood.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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