Shoreditch and Bethnal Green: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Shoreditch and Bethnal Green: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (new seat)  (LAB)
County/Area: Hackney (London)
Electorate: 75,449
Turnout: 80.5%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB44,42973.2%
CON7,61512.5%
LIB3,8626.4%
MIN2,0663.4%
Green1,8603.1%
UKIP4540.7%
OTH4260.7%
LAB Majority36,81460.6%

See overview of other seats in London.

Shoreditch and Bethnal Green : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Shoreditch and Bethnal Green constituency, the 'London' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatLondonAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position2° Left11° Right
National Position43° Int29° Int1° Int
EU Leave %24%40%52%
British Identity30%38%29%
Good Health43%50%48%
UK Born84%64%88%
Good Education25%48%39%
Good Job37%61%51%
High SEC33%55%51%
Average Age47.544.148.5
ABC1 Class36%62%53%

Shoreditch and Bethnal Green ranks #586 for "Leave", #378 for "Right" and #595 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Shoreditch and Bethnal Green: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Shoreditch and Bethnal Green been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Shoreditch and Bethnal Green

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Bethnal Green and Bow

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Bethnal Green and Bow, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Bethnal Green and BowTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Tower HamletsBethnal Green13,666Shoreditch and Bethnal Green9936,945536182239060309,498
Tower HamletsBow East10,140Stepney and Bow1,1105,02829077179036407,048
Tower HamletsBow West8,928Stepney and Bow9304,30036289239028406,204
Tower HamletsSpitalfields and Banglatown8,705Shoreditch and Bethnal Green9474,2252714076049106,050
Tower HamletsSt Dunstan's7,625Stepney and Bow5014,1141848863035005,300
Tower HamletsSt Peter's12,613Shoreditch and Bethnal Green8456,266622101355057808,767
Tower HamletsStepney Green8,117Stepney and Bow5384,31617114061041605,642
Tower HamletsWeavers8,703Shoreditch and Bethnal Green7764,188306131254039406,049
Tower HamletsWhitechapel7,574Stepney and Bow9353,5862404449040905,263
 Total86,071 7,57542,9682,9828921,51503,889059,821

The full details of these calculations are given on the Bethnal Green and Bow seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Hackney North and Stoke Newington

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hackney North and Stoke Newington, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Hackney North and Stoke NewingtonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HackneyBrownswood5,382Finsbury Park and Stoke Newington3962,659343015500563,609
HackneyCazenove9,428Hackney Central6514,3621,097017900326,321
HackneyClissold8,626Finsbury Park and Stoke Newington4314,385557037900325,784
HackneyDalston5,014Shoreditch and Bethnal Green1862,587290027000303,363
HackneyHackney Central38Hackney Central12110100024
HackneyHackney Downs8,580Hackney Central3214,778273033000515,753
HackneyLea Bridge8,651Hackney Central4324,723189038000765,800
HackneyLondon Fields889Shoreditch and Bethnal Green49467350320013596
HackneyShacklewell5,727Hackney Central2003,233172021000263,841
HackneySpringfield10,381Hackney Central2,2654,36421008400386,961
HackneyStamford Hill West6,756Finsbury Park and Stoke Newington1,3752,87317108700254,531
HackneyStoke Newington8,969Finsbury Park and Stoke Newington3494,827332042900786,015
HackneyWoodberry Down5,513Finsbury Park and Stoke Newington4702,98515006900253,699
 Total83,954 7,12642,2643,82002,6050048256,297

The full details of these calculations are given on the Hackney North and Stoke Newington seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Hackney South and Shoreditch

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hackney South and Shoreditch, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Hackney South and ShoreditchTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HackneyDe Beauvoir5,900Shoreditch and Bethnal Green7572,769317010100383,982
HackneyHackney Central8,587Hackney Central3954,824273027700285,797
HackneyHackney Wick8,201Hackney Central4784,586283014900405,536
HackneyHaggerston8,868Shoreditch and Bethnal Green6584,8612450119001035,986
HackneyHomerton8,088Hackney Central3274,573338012700955,460
HackneyHoxton East and Shoreditch8,295Shoreditch and Bethnal Green1,0274,01339707800835,598
HackneyHoxton West8,610Shoreditch and Bethnal Green9274,249462010100735,812
HackneyKing's Park8,847Hackney Central4005,225152012900655,971
HackneyLea Bridge568Hackney Central3230916022004383
HackneyLondon Fields7,425Shoreditch and Bethnal Green4503,859381023500865,011
HackneyVictoria8,615Hackney Central5924,705305018300315,816
 Total82,004 6,04343,9733,16901,5210064655,352

The full details of these calculations are given on the Hackney South and Shoreditch seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Shoreditch and Bethnal Green

The new seat of Shoreditch and Bethnal Green is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Shoreditch and Bethnal Green
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HackneyDalston5,215Hackney North and Stoke Newington1862,587290027000303,363
HackneyDe Beauvoir5,668Hackney South and Shoreditch7572,769317010100383,982
HackneyHaggerston7,821Hackney South and Shoreditch6584,8612450119001035,986
HackneyHoxton East and Shoreditch6,205Hackney South and Shoreditch1,0274,01339707800835,598
HackneyHoxton West6,951Hackney South and Shoreditch9274,249462010100735,812
HackneyLondon Fields825Hackney North and Stoke Newington53463440290011600
HackneyLondon Fields6,888Hackney South and Shoreditch4463,863372023800885,007
Tower HamletsBethnal Green11,043Bethnal Green and Bow9936,945536182239060309,498
Tower HamletsSpitalfields and Banglatown6,792Bethnal Green and Bow9474,2252714076049106,050
Tower HamletsSt Peter's10,598Bethnal Green and Bow8456,266622101355057808,767
Tower HamletsWeavers7,443Bethnal Green and Bow7764,188306131254039406,049
 Total75,449 7,61544,4293,8624541,86002,06642660,712

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Shoreditch and Bethnal Green.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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